An international team of scientists (including researchers associated with CERES-Science and others) has developed the first probabilistic forecasting system specifically for super flares- extremely powerful solar eruptions classified as “S-class” (soft X-ray flux exceeding X10, or more than 10 times stronger than typical X-class flares).

These events release massive energy, potentially launching coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that could trigger severe geomagnetic storms on Earth, risking blackouts, satellite damage, communication disruptions, and radiation hazards for astronauts.

They’ve developed the first probabilistic forecasting model for S-class super Flares (extreme solar flares with soft X-ray flux > X10, far stronger than typical X-class events). These can drive massive coronal mass ejections (CMEs), leading to potentially catastrophic geomagnetic storms—think grid blackouts, satellite failures, GPS/radio disruptions, and high radiation risks.

This gives operators (power grids, satellites, space agencies) 1-2 years’ lead time to harden systems, delay launches, or activate contingencies-far better than current short-term (hours- days) CME arrival alerts from NOAA/SWPC.

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From The CERES- Science

Scientists Successfully Predict When and Where Dangerous Solar Storms Are Likely to Happen

Breakthrough forecasting method validated by surprise solar eruptions on the far side of the Sun

Mexico City, Mexico – February 14, 2026.

A team of scientists from around the world has created the first system that can predict when and where extremely powerful solar storms, called superflares, are most likely to happen. These storms can disrupt power grids, communications, and satellites, and even pose dangers to astronauts in space.

Instead of trying to predict the exact moment a solar storm will erupt (which is nearly impossible), this new approach identifies extended windows of time—ranging from several months to a year—when the Sun is more likely to produce these extreme events. The method also pinpoints which regions of the Sun are most at risk. The research has been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.

How the Forecasting System Works

The scientists analyzed nearly 50 years of data (1975–2025) from satellites that monitor the Sun’s X-ray emissions. They discovered two key patterns:

1. They identified specific zones on the Sun where magnetic energy builds up over time, making those areas more likely to produce powerful eruptions.

2. They found a rhythmic pattern in solar activity based on two natural cycles: a 1.7-year cycle and a 7-year cycle. When these cycles line up in certain ways, the risk of superflares increases significantly.

Using advanced mathematical techniques and machine learning, the team combined these patterns to forecast high-risk time periods and locations on the Sun. For the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), their model predicts two main danger windows:

• Mid-2025 through mid-2026 (focused on the Sun’s southern hemisphere, between 5°S–25°S latitude)

• Early-to-mid 2027 (focused on the Sun’s northern hemisphere, between 10°N–30°N latitude)

Real-World Implications

Lead researcher Dr. Victor M. Velasco Herrera, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, explained:

“Traditional solar forecasting struggles with these extreme events because they happen so quickly and unpredictably. Our method gives space weather operators and satellite managers one to two years of advance warning about when conditions are most dangerous. This critical lead time allows them to prepare and protect communications systems, power grids, and astronaut safety.”

Dr. Velasco Herrera also noted the relevance for space missions:

“NASA is right to postpone the Artemis II mission to the Moon until March, but given how active the Sun is right now, our forecasts suggest that delaying the launch until the end of 2026 may be a much safer decision.”

Surprise Validation from the Far Side of the Sun

The team got an unexpected confirmation of their model’s accuracy during the research process itself. After they submitted their paper for publication (between October and December 2025), other scientists using the Solar Orbiter spacecraft discovered a series of massive superflares that had erupted on the far side of the Sun—the side we can’t see from Earth. These eruptions included an X11.1 class on May 14, 2024, an X9.5 and X9.7 on May 15, 2024 and an X16.5 class on May 20, 2024, as reported coincidentally on the same day by a NASA study.

Remarkably, these newly discovered far-side events matched the patterns the team had predicted, even though they had no knowledge of these storms when developing their forecasting system.

“This was pure luck, but also very revealing,” said Dr. Velasco Herrera. “We created our forecast without knowing about these far-side superflares. When they were discovered during our paper review process, they aligned perfectly with our predicted patterns. This shows that our physics-based approach works across the entire Sun, not just the side facing Earth.”

Co-author Dr. Willie Soon, from the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES), added:

“Nature gave us the perfect test. These far-side discoveries essentially validated our method in real time, proving that the underlying patterns we identified are reliable and work everywhere on the Sun’s surface.”

Why This Matters

Solar super flares are the most powerful eruptions the Sun can produce. A direct hit from one of these storms could cause widespread power outages, damage satellites, disrupt GPS navigation, interfere with radio communications, and create radiation hazards for astronauts and airline passengers at high altitudes.

By providing advance warning of when and where these events are most likely to occur, this new forecasting system gives utilities, satellite operators, and space agencies valuable time to take protective measures—such as adjusting satellite orbits, preparing backup systems, or rescheduling space missions.

As Solar Cycle 25 continues to show strong activity, this breakthrough offers a significant improvement in our ability to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of extreme space weather.

The research paper, titled ‘A New Method for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasts of Solar Soft X-ray S-Class (> X10) Superflares,’ is now published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics (American Geophysical Union), https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JA034977.

The author team includes scientists from Mexico, the United States, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Czech Republic, and China.

Publication Details

V. M. Velasco Herrera, G. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, A. Özgüç, N. Babynets, A. Tlatov, M. Švanda, S. Qiu, S. Baliunas, B. Kotan, G. González González, L. A. Bautista Flores, M. Pazos (2026). “A New Method for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasts of Solar Soft X-Ray “S-Class” (>X10) Superflares“. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics. 131 (2), e2025JA034977. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JA034977