The idea that ionospheric disturbances could influence earthquakes is an emerging and speculative concept in geophysics, primarily explored in a recent theoretical model rather than through established empirical evidence.

However, this remains a speculative hypothesis rather than an established fact, and the mainstream scientific view continues to treat ionospheric changes primarily as consequences of earthquakes (co-seismic effects) or potential precursors from below-ground processes, not drivers from above.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

From the “anything goes in modeling these days” department. Here’s my take on it.

The paper proposes a capacitive coupling model in which a fractured crustal zone supposedly acts as a capacitor, storing charge that interacts with the ionosphere, and reciprocally, solar-flare–enhanced ionospheric charge induces electrostatic pressures in crustal voids sufficient to trigger rupture.

It is certainly an imaginative (and that is being generous) attempt to unify atmospheric electricity and seismology, but the central weakness is that it moves rapidly from correlation to causation without robust empirical validation.

The authors assume, for example, that descending ionospheric charge density can be treated as equal to total electron content (TEC) and that this charge forms an effective space-charge layer capable of inducing megapascal-scale pressures. That assumption alone carries enormous physical uncertainty: TEC is an integrated vertical column measurement over hundreds of kilometers, not a direct proxy for localized lower-ionospheric space charge. Likewise, the model presumes idealized dielectric behavior in fractured crust saturated with supercritical water, with specified permittivity, breakdown voltage, and uniform void connectivity, yet these parameters are not constrained by real-world field measurements at seismogenic depths. In short, the mechanism rests on layered assumptions rather than observational confirmation. It is a lot like climate science.

Moreover, the invocation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake and coincident solar flare activity as supporting evidence reads more like post hoc pattern matching than statistical demonstration . Solar flares are frequent; earthquakes are frequent; coincidences will occur. A convincing case would require rigorous statistical analysis across many events, controlling for flare magnitude, geomagnetic latitude, background stress state, and tidal forcing. Instead, the pressure estimates (e.g., ~5 × 10⁶ N/m² for 10 TECU) are presented as comparable to tidal or gravitational stresses , yet no sensitivity analysis is offered to show how stable those results are under more realistic conductivity, charge dissipation, or geometric heterogeneity. The Earth’s crust is not a laboratory capacitor with neatly parallel plates, and electric fields in conductive, fluid-rich rock are likely to dissipate rapidly. IMHO, the paper reads as speculative fiction.

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Via Eurekalert:
Could ionospheric disturbances influence earthquakes?

Kyoto, Japan — Researchers at Kyoto University have proposed a new physical model that explores how disturbances in the ionosphere may exert electrostatic forces within the Earth’s crust and potentially contribute to the initiation of large earthquakes under specific conditions.

The study does not aim to predict earthquakes but rather presents a theoretical mechanism describing how ionospheric charge variations — caused by intense solar activity such as solar flares — could interact with pre-existing fragile structures in the Earth’s crust and influence fracture processes.

In the proposed model, fractured zones within the Earth’s crust are assumed to contain high-temperature, high-pressure water, potentially in a supercritical state. These zones behave electrically like capacitors and are capacitively coupled with both the ground surface and the lower ionosphere, forming a large-scale electrostatic system.

When strong solar activity increases electron density in the ionosphere, a negatively charged layer can form in the lower ionosphere. Through capacitive coupling, this space charge may induce strong electric fields inside nanometer-scale voids within fractured crustal regions. The resulting electrostatic pressure could reach magnitudes comparable to tidal or gravitational stresses known to affect fault stability.

Quantitative estimates in the study suggest that ionospheric disturbances associated with large solar flares — corresponding to increases in total electron content of several tens of TEC units — could generate electrostatic pressures on the order of several megapascals within crustal voids.

Ionospheric anomalies, such as increased electron density, lowered ionospheric altitude, and slowed abnormal propagation of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances, have been repeatedly observed prior to major earthquakes. Traditionally, these phenomena have been interpreted as consequences of stress accumulation within the Earth’s crust.

The new model provides a complementary perspective by proposing a bidirectional interaction: while crustal processes may affect the ionosphere, ionospheric disturbances themselves may also exert feedback forces on the crust. This framework offers a possible physical explanation linking space weather phenomena and seismic processes without invoking direct causation.

The study discusses recent large earthquakes in Japan, including the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, as examples that are temporally consistent with the proposed mechanism. In these cases, intense solar flare activity occurred shortly before the seismic events. The authors emphasize that such temporal coincidence does not establish direct causality but is consistent with a scenario in which ionospheric disturbances act as a contributing factor when the crust is already in a critical state.

By integrating concepts from plasma physics, atmospheric science, and geophysics, the proposed model broadens the conventional view of earthquakes as purely internal Earth processes. The findings suggest that monitoring ionospheric conditions, together with subsurface observations, may help improve scientific understanding of earthquake initiation processes and seismic hazard assessment.

Future research will focus on combining high-resolution GNSS-based ionospheric tomography with space weather data to clarify the conditions under which ionospheric disturbances may exert significant electrostatic influence on the Earth’s crust.

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The paper “Possible Mechanism of Ionospheric Anomalies to Trigger Earthquakes: Electrostatic Coupling Between the Ionosphere and the Crust and the Resulting Electric Forces Acting Within the Crust” appeared on 3 February 2026 in International Journal of Plasma Environmental Science and Technology, with doi: 10.34343/ijpest.2026.20.e01003

https://ijpest.com/Contents/20/1/e01003.html