Another Blow! Two New Studies Show Climate Models Have “Large Deficits” …Running “Too Hot”

Iowa Climate Science Education

Climate sensitivity and the warming pattern

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

In March 2018, we reported on a paper that derived the sensitivity of our climate system with the best data available. Lewis/Curry (2018) came to the result: 1.3 °C for doubling the CO2 content of the atmosphere during the rise (Transient Climate Response), long-term equilibrium (ECS) at 1.7 °C (see Table 3 of the paper).

The numbers hardly react sensitively to the choice of (larger) time windows, they fluctuate very little, whether one evaluates 1870…2016 or 1930…2016. There was a whole series of precursor studies also from other authors who also had found near these quite small values. Also papers examining historical periods (last glacial maximum to pre-industrial) do not contradict these low figures.

So the much more dramatic sensitivity estimates, especially from GCM model considerations (for General Circulation Models) — 1.86…

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