From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Cunningham/Ian Magness

Only £75 billion!

From the Telegraph:

Ed Miliband will fail to meet his net zero targets unless he spends an extra £75bn on renewables, a leading energy consultancy has said.

Wood Mackenzie has warned the UK does not currently have enough wind and solar to decarbonise the grid, claiming nearly all of the Energy Secretary’s 2030 clean power targets are “out of reach”.

In a new report, Wood Mackenzie said the Government must spend at least an extra £75bn on net zero by the end of this decade to have any hope of achieving its target of almost entirely clean power by 2030.

The consultancy said: “The UK has reached crunch time on climate commitments, with nearly all 2030 energy transition targets now out of reach.”

Full story here.

The full report does not appear to have been published yet, but Wood Mackenzie’s Press Release covers it all (my highlights):

The United Kingdom has reached crunch time on climate commitments, with nearly all 2030 energy transition targets now out of reach despite cutting emissions in half since 1990, according to Wood Mackenzie’s ‘United Kingdom Energy Transition Outlook 2025’.

The analysis shows the UK must close a 12-percentage-point gap by 2030, requiring an additional £75 billion in accelerated investment this decade, while cumulative low-carbon spending needs will reach £1.5-2.1 trillion through 2060. A ban on North Sea exploration has locked in structural dependence on oil and gas imports, even as offshore wind deployment lags 20% behind government targets.

Shifting priorities threaten climate momentum

The UK slashed energy-related CO2 emissions from approximately 600 million tonnes per year in 1990 to 294 Mtpa in 2025, a 51% reduction over 35 years. The government followed this success with an ambitious 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution target. However, Wood Mackenzie’s base case projects only a 56% reduction by 2030 against the NDC target of 68%.

Amidst what the analysis describes as a “new world order,” national security priorities and economic pressures now compete with climate policy for government attention and budget allocation. Defence spending and cost-of-living concerns are pulling resources away from climate initiatives, and the climate-motivated energy transition is losing urgency. Yet domestic low-carbon energy has become central to UK autonomy and global influence, creating a strategic imperative that extends beyond emissions targets.

UK Energy Transition Outlook Shows 12-Point Gap on 2030 Climate Target Despite £1.5-2.1 Trillion Investment Pathway to 2060 | Wood Mackenzie

I’m not sure how you can compare 2035 NDCs with 2030. But we know already that there is no way Miliband can meet his original 2030 Clean Power targets for offshore wind. Even if a large dollop gets contracts in the next round, they are not going to be built in time.

We can therefore regard Wood Mackenzie’s “gap” as a programme for 2030-2035. That means reducing emissions from a projected 264 Mt in 2030 to 192 Mt in 2035.

According to them, we will need an extra 13 GW of wind power and 8 GW of solar power beyond 2030, if govt targets are to be met.

The breakdown of their £75 billion is:

£45 billion for offshore wind and low carbon power

£10 billion for hydrogen and carbon capture

£8 billion for grid infrastructure

£12 billion is unidentified.

The first chunk of £45 billion does, of course, have some value – the electricity produced. But the other £30 billion is simply money down the drain.

An extra 13 GW of wind and 8 GW of solar might produce about 30 TWh, after accounting for throwing away surplus power. With officially projected gas prices of around 70p/therm, the fuel cost of CCGT output works out at around £44/MWh.

So, to replace that 30 TWh would incur a marginal cost of £1.3 billion a year.

Wood Mackenzie therefore suggest that we spend £45 billion to save £1.3 billion a year. You don’t need fancy computer models to tell you that is poor value for money! The value added would not even cover interest payments on the debt, never mind depreciation and operational costs.

£75 billion, I would remind people, is more than £2700 for every household in the country.