Tag Archives: excess deaths

Across Europe Deaths Are Far Higher Now Than They Were in the ‘Pandemic Years’ of 2020 and 2021

From The Daily Sceptic

By NICK RENDELL

In the year from week ending June 5th 2022 to week ending June 4th 2023 the U.K. recorded 1,059 excess death per million people. The odd thing about this is that excess deaths in the U.K. in 2023 are higher than the excess deaths in the same period in 2020-21 in 13 of the 27 EU nations!

If the people of Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands and Sweden were so worried about the likelihood of dying that they acquiesced in locking themselves up, voluntarily trashed their economies and stopped their kids going to school back in 2020-21 (well, Sweden didn’t, but the rest did), why don’t we feel the need to do the same now? We have more excess deaths now than they had then.

If YouGov did a poll tomorrow asking whether or not we should, right now, go back into lockdown, how many thumbs up would it receive? Very few, I should hope. But if U.K. citizens don’t think it’s a good idea now, why did the Germans or the Finns or the Greeks think it was a good idea in 2020 and 2021? Could it be that they were manipulated? That they weren’t given the whole picture? That they were ‘had’?

Let’s try and put some perspective on this number. We can think of 1,059 excess deaths per 1,000,000 of population in several ways. As a straight percentage let’s round it down to 0.1%. This means that we expect 0.1% of the population to die in addition to the number of people we might ordinarily expect to die in the year. Or, if you prefer, an additional one person in a 1,000 will die in the year.

In the U.K. roughly one person in 100 dies every year, i.e., 1% of the population. But if we’re experiencing excess deaths at a level of 0.1% then we can expect that about 1.1% of the population will die this year. Let’s take the example of a large town or small city with 100,000 inhabitants. In a normal year we’d expect 1,000 deaths. With this year’s higher level of excess deaths, the funeral directors would expect to see 1,100 deaths. That’s all very straightforward.

In case you’d forgotten, let’s remind ourselves that the period from April 5th 2020 to April 4th 2021 included the two big spikes in fatality in Spring 2020 and winter 2020-21. It’s also the period that ended before the vaccine rollout was in any way complete. While about 50% of the U.K. population had received one dose of vaccine by then, in the EU the figure was only about 20%. This period was very much the year when we would have expected to see peak ‘all-cause’ pandemic excess deaths in the U.K. and across Europe with very little amelioration from vaccines or prior infection.

Figure 1

Figure 1 shows all-cause excess deaths across the EU for the period April 4th 2020 to April 5th 2021. I’ve overlaid the Our World in Data chart with a thick red line representing U.K. all-cause excess deaths from June 5th 2022 to June 4th 2023. You can see that U.K. deaths in 2022-23 would have ranked ‘mid-table’ among EU countries in 2020-21.

What to make of this? It prompts a few questions that surely the Hallett Inquiry should ask. Such as: “If there are more excess deaths per head of population in the U.K. now than in half of the EU in 2020-21, were the Europeans mad to lockdown then, or are we mad not to lockdown now?” Or: “Given that, with the honourable exception of Sweden, all these countries broadly followed the same set of policies, do the Bulgarians, with about 3,500 per million excess deaths and Denmark with below average excess deaths, both consider that lockdown was a valuable tool?” If lockdown was so effective, why were deaths in Bulgaria so high? If the pandemic was so deadly, why were they so low in Denmark?

But the fun doesn’t end there. Figure 2 picks out the U.K. and 13 EU countries with excess all-cause deaths in the 12 months to April 2023 (the latest date for which figure were available for all countries) greater than 750 per million. Back in 2020-21 this level of excess deaths would have put you mid-table in the EU excess death league. Clearly, in 2020-21 it was considered essential to lock down populations with these modest levels of excess death (or indeed, lower).

Figure 2

In figure 2 all-cause excess deaths for the 12 months to April 4th 2021 are indicated by the blue bar and for the 12 months to March 26th 2023 by the orange bar. In eight of the countries – Germany, Finland, Austria, Latvia, Greece, Estonia, Netherlands and Ireland – excess deaths in 2022-23 have been higher than in 2020-21. In Germany for example, excess deaths in 2022-23 have been four times higher than in 2020/21. In Finland in 2020-21 fewer people than normal died, while now they have excess deaths that would have placed them in the top half of the EU death league back in 2020-21. Ireland and Greece have almost twice the level of excess deaths in 2022-23 that they had in 2020-21.

Just for fun, put yourself for a moment in the shoes of the German, Austrian or Irish equivalent of Lady Hallett. How would you, with a straight face, justify to your fellow countrymen spending several hundred million euros looking into the awful events of the ‘once in a century’ 2020-21 pandemic, when death supposedly stalked the land, resulting in excess deaths far lower than they are now?

An Inexorable Rise in Excess Mortality Since the Vaccine Rollout

From The Daily Sceptic

By NICK BOWLER

In a previous article I highlighted how studying core non-respiratory mortality (NRM) trends, which have been very stable over the last 10 years or so, can provide a useful yardstick to measure any kind of extraordinary change that might occur. 

Since the vaccine rollout there have indeed been radical changes to this metric, so as we approach the halfway mark of 2023 I thought an update was warranted. Unfortunately there is still no evidence of any real slowdown of this alarming development.

Here is a chart which shows what has been happening with raw non-respiratory mortality data during the four Covid years. The years are each displayed with 13 data-points of four-weekly (monthly) aggregated figures.

Each year appears to be worse than the previous one, and but for the still unexplained spike in non-respiratory deaths at the very beginning of the pandemic, 2020 would have been broadly similar to the 2015-2019 average. Something therefore happened in 2021 that changed the picture radically.

As all four Covid years are showing some excess non-respiratory deaths relative to the 2015-2019 average, the cumulative excess NRM can be displayed like this.

When looked at as a continuous curve with all four years shown consecutively, the chart then looks like this.

So, to summarise, the estimated total excess non-respiratory death toll now exceeds 100,000. Please note that in contrast to my previous article, this time I have already added the estimated mortality displacement (MD) into the cumulative figures for excess NRM. This reflects the fact that cumulative excess all-cause mortality through the Covid years (relative to the pre-Covid 2015-2019 average) stands now at just over 200,000. Mortality displacement lowers the expected number of deaths (so increases the excess) owing to deaths being brought forward in periods of higher mortality.

This is because even though adding in mortality displacement does not change the overall shape of the graphs, it displays more accurately the true picture of the scale of what has been going on with excess deaths in England and Wales. That a similar picture has occurred in many other countries around the world is illustrated by the recent Eugyppius article comparing excess deaths in Germany and Japan.

This chart shows just how stable the trend has been with non-respiratory mortality in the period from 2010 through 2020. The red line represents the 52-week moving average and the data are taken from the ONS weekly mortality reports for England & Wales.

It can be clearly seen that there is a slight rising trend in the period from 2010 through 2020, consistent with a growing population of aged people in the U.K., then a much more abrupt change beginning in 2021.

Looking at multi-year trends in this way, rather than at more recent averages (like the five-year average favoured by the ONS in its mortality statistics for example), can mitigate against the effects of amortisation of a higher rate of mortality and thus normalisation of unwelcome new trends, as Nick Rendell pointed out in his recent article.

The chart also shows how the core mortality in the population typically follows seasonal patterns, rising in the winter and falling in the summer, and thus mimicking to a certain extent the patterns of mortality evident in the ebb and flow of the respiratory season. 

Influenza-like illness is normally the main killer during these times, but evidence is mounting that there is a mutually antagonistic competition between rival respiratory pathogens. Thus the Covid years turned out to not be an exceptionally significant addition to overall respiratory mortality, because to some extent they just repressed the influenza deaths that would have occurred anyway.

There is though this strong correlation between the timing of respiratory deaths and core non-respiratory deaths. One could speculate that respiratory deaths, which vary in number each year, bring forward deaths from non-respiratory causes, and so a corresponding lull in these types of death follows naturally in the summer months.

So has Covid been so extraordinarily different from all the other respiratory diseases that we normally experience each year, and somehow increased the size of the winter non-respiratory mortality peaks, whilst also reducing the size of the normal summer lulls? Or is it perhaps something else entirely, as yet unexplained? As the catastrophe is still unfolding, answers are urgently required.

One glimmer of hope that all this will not be washed under the carpet is that mainstream media have begun to report on the heart death epidemic specifically, although at this stage the disturbingly large increase has been entirely attributed to such things as delayed diagnoses, reduced heart drug prescriptions and ambulance delays. Yet the elephant in the room is still never mentioned in polite company.

Heart Failure Deaths in May Hit 44% Higher Than Pre-Pandemic. Why is Government Refusing to Investigate?

From The Daily Sceptic

By NICK RENDELL

During the week ending May 26th 2023 there were 1,397 recorded deaths from heart failure. That’s 424 or, if you prefer it as a percentage, 44% higher than the ‘expected’ number of 973 deaths for the same week in 2020. That seems like a very significant change to me.

But why am I comparing the level of heart failure deaths in 2023 to the expected level of heart failure deaths in 2020? It’s because since 2020 the ‘expected’ level of deaths has been inflated by high levels of deaths since then. For a more detailed explanation of what’s happened please see a previous piece that was published in the Daily Sceptic on May 18th.

The Office for Health Improvements and Disparities reports that heart failure deaths were only 16% higher than expected during week ending May 26th 2023. I think this is misleading.

Table 1 illustrates how heart failure deaths in 2021 and 2022 being incorporated into the level of ‘expected’ deaths in 2023 has skewed the data. In 2020 we expected 973 heart failure deaths during week 21, in 2023 we appear to expect 1,209, an increase of 24%.

Put it another way; no excess deaths at all would be reported unless heart failure deaths in 2023 were more than 24% greater than in the same week in 2020. Nothing to see here, move along please!

Table 1 shows the issue:

These figures come from the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities and can be seen here. The data are available via a very neat selectable graphical tool but for those of you who like to get into the weeds there’s also a data download available.

If those were the expected deaths from heart failure, what was the actual level? Table 2 shows us the answer. In the final week of May 2023, 1,397 deaths were registered as being from heart failure in England. This was 16% higher than the 2023 ‘expected’ level, but 44% higher than the 2020 ‘expected’ level.

Of course, data from a single week aren’t necessarily representative of a general trend, and I confess there’s a bit of cherry-picking here. Nonetheless, heart failure deaths in the previous week were even higher at 1,468, the week before they were at 1,363. Maybe 1,397 isn’t an outlier?

We can look at the trend by simply comparing the data from the 10 weeks numbered 12-21 for both 2020 and 2023 as reported by the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities.

Figure 3 shows the level of registered deaths (orange line) in 2023 compared to the ‘expected’ level of heart failure deaths (blue line) in 2020. The grey bars show the variance between the two lines as a weekly percentage in line with the right-hand axis. You can see the 44% increase in week 21, the trend line has hovered between 25% and 30% over the past 10 weeks.

You may recall that the Chief Medical Officer published a paper ascribing the increase in heart failure to a reduction in the prescriptions for statins, an explanation soon debunked by Drs. Heneghan and Jefferson (see here). To my knowledge no further explanation has been floated by the authorities; rather, they’ve ignored the problem. After all, leave it long enough and the inflation of ‘expected’ heart failure deaths will make the excess magically disappear. Soon enough they may even be reporting that heart failure deaths are reducing year on year, even though they may still be much higher than the pre-pandemic level.

Finally, in Figure 4 I’ve shown the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities reported excess deaths for both heart failure and cancer. Bear in mind that the baseline in the case of heart failure has been inflated so the chart, arguably, understates heart failure excess deaths. The same is not so true for the cancer deaths. Expected deaths from cancer in 2023 are only 3% higher than they were for the same period in 2020. Over the 10 weeks from week 12-21 cancer deaths in 2023 have been only 1.7% higher than the expected level for the same period in 2020. This suggests the sharp rise in heart failure deaths is not due to a general increase in deaths from all causes such as might be caused by an ageing population.

Make of it what you will, but it seems to me that deaths from heart failure should be a real cause of concern. It’s not so long ago that the likes of Hancock and Gove were telling us that ‘one death is one death too many’. The lack of concern with the current level of excess deaths, many of them heart related – which the Government has now said it has no plans to investigate – highlights that this view was always sanctimonious tosh.

Vaccine damage: 300,000 deaths in the US, $148 billion lost, and 10% say a member of their house died

By Jo Nova

The crime of the century

“Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about this state of affairs is that most Americans don’t know it’s happening.”
“…this death count in one year is 5.2 times the number of men killed in ten years of combat in Vietnam.”

—  John Leake

Ed Dowd’s Vaccine Damage Report is finally here. It looks at excess death in the healthy working age population of the US — the 148 million Americans aged 18 – 64 who are employed. Shockingly, an estimated 300,000 people have died due to Covid vaccines, and another 1.4 million are now classed as disabled.  Around the world this would translate to about 5 million deaths and 46 million with disabilities and as many as 900 million people with some injury.

A Rasmussen poll just out, corroborates that something awful happened in America.* It shows 10% of people in the US say that someone in their own household died and they suspect their death was caused by the vaccines. This number was spread evenly across Democrat and Republican voters showing it is not a politically driven response but probably just a sad reflection of the situation anger.  About the same number of people (11%) said a household member died of covid. What is remarkable is that without media headlines, many of these 1 in 10 households may think their suffering is a “rare” event and they just got incredibly unlucky. Surely the outrage will flow when they connect the dots.

UPDATE: The Rasmussen poll surely reflects a protest vote, not actual deaths. All the people (from both sides of politics) who suffered harm, or saw harm, or know someone who suffered, presumably ticked the box because they felt voiceless in the face of the worst corruption. Think of it as an emergency flare over a crime scene.

@DowdEdward   via Peter McCullough

This isn’t going to go away, the numbers are just too big. If one in ten lived with someone who has died, far more than that would know of them. A similar survey in January found a quarter of those polled said they personally knew someone who had died, they believed, of the vaccines.

Shocking rates of injury in people in the prime of their lives:

Essentially, 82% of people suffered no ill effects following the vaccine (at least as shown in this data). But about 18% suffered a mild to moderate injury. This remarkably high figure is corroborated by data on absentee rates from work in 2022 which were 29% higher than in 2019. As Ed Dowd reminds us this is off the charts — an 11 standard deviation from the norm. It’s a radioactive red hot signal. Nothing like this has occurred in the data before. Nothing like this has occurred to the workers of the USA before.

Almost 1% suffered some kind of disability, and worse, 0.05 – 0.1% died — perhaps as many as 1 in 1,000 people died, and this is from the healthy 18-64  age group. It represents a 23% increase in excess deaths in this otherwise healthy group during 2021 and 2022. In his interview with Tucker Carlson a few weeks ago Ed Dowd explained then that the excess deaths were higher in the healthy working age part of the population than in the unemployed — probably due to medical treatment mandates that applied to workers and not to unemployed people.

2021 was a terrible year for people under 75

PhinanceTechnologies

Four different levels of harm were categorized, explained in this chart:

Edward Dowd is calling for support to perform this analysis on other countries, like Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan and others. Governments should be doing these assessments, but they’re not. In Australia the largest medical vaccine safety trial is being dropped only one year after it was started. 14,000 Australians died of something mysterious last year and no one wants to research it.

If the vaccines were safe and effective they’d be doing a hundred studies. Instead private citizens need to do the research the government won’t.

The Australian figures for 2022 show broadly similar death rates to the US ones. The US population is 15 times larger though only 70% vaccinated, and their figures above came from 2021 and 2022, whereas the Australian data comes from just one year and spread across the whole population, not just the workers.

REFERENCES

US Vaccine Damage Report Report (2022) Phinance Technologies.

Art by Syaifulptak

*Edit: On the Rassmussen poll, the word “this” changed to “that something awful happened in America.”