Response to the Australian Bushfire Commission

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The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements Temperature Projection Graph
(p61)

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t Viv Forbes; The The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements Report has been released. But the commission’s apparent overt genuflection to climate disaster memes has already drawn harsh criticism from a group of highly experienced land management and fire fighting experts.

For example, on page 22;

23. Extreme weather has already become more frequent and intense because of climate change; further global warming over the next 20 to 30 years is inevitable. Globally, temperatures will continue to rise, and Australia will have more hot days and fewer cool days. Sea levels are also projected to continue to rise. Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in number, but increase in intensity. Floods and bushfires are expected to become more frequent and more intense. Catastrophic fire conditions may render traditional bushfire prediction models and firefighting techniques less effective.

24. Natural disasters are expected to become more complex, more unpredictable, and more difficult to manage. We are likely to see more compounding disasters on a national scale with far-reaching consequences. Compounding disasters may be caused by multiple disasters happening simultaneously, or one after another. Some may involve multiple hazards – fires, floods and storms. Some have cascading effects – threatening not only lives and homes, but also the nation’s economy, critical infrastructure and essential services, such as our electricity, telecommunications and water supply, and our roads, railways and airports.

25. Australia needs to be better prepared for these natural disasters. They may not happen every year, but when they happen, they can be catastrophic. The summer of 2019-2020 – in which some communities experienced drought, heatwaves, bushfires, hailstorms, and flooding – provided only a glimpse of the types of events that Australia may face in the future.

Source: https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-10/Royal%20Commission%20into%20National%20Natural%20Disaster%20Arrangements%20-%20Report%20%20%5Baccessible%5D.pdf

A group of land management experts has not wasted any time criticising the Bushfire Commission. I think its fair to say they haven’t pulled any punches.

BUSHFIRES ROYAL COMMISSION DOESN’T HAVE THE ANSWERS

Experienced land and fire managers from eight community groups across Australia have jointly written to the Prime Minister urging the restoration of healthy and safe rural landscapes. The grass-roots organisations represent more than 6,000 members and 14 regional councils. They have called for an end to the ongoing loss of human life and the socioeconomic and environmental destruction caused by extreme bushfires.

Former Chief of CSIRO Bushfire Research, Phil Cheney, says that a focus on emergency response at the expense of land management has created an unstoppable monster. Expenditure on firefighting forces is ever-increasing whilst volunteers are being cynically used to deflect criticism away from failed government policies. Land management agencies no longer have primary responsibility for suppressing wildfires. Consequently they have little incentive for stewardship and fire mitigation. Cheney is a scientific advisor to Volunteer Fire Fighters Association.

Chairman of Western Australia’s Bushfire Front, Roger Underwood, points to the stark contrast in historical fire management policies and outcomes on either side of the continent.   Seventy years of data from WA show a strong inverse relationship between the area maintained by mild burning and the area subsequently damaged by high intensity fires. This relationship is especially apparent in extreme fire seasons.

Underwood is widely experienced in sustainable land and fire management at all levels from lighting or fighting fires on the ground, to leading a State land management agency. He highlights the deep divide between those who actively care for the bush and who understand bushfire science and operations, compared to the Academics and Fire Chiefs who are misleading  governments. The Royal Commission did not call upon Mr. Cheney, Mr. Underwood or similar elders to give evidence. Their consideration of previous bushfire inquiries went back only as far as the COAG whitewash in 2004.

The Royal Commission has accepted wrong advice from academics and modellers rather than information from experienced practitioners. Consequently its conclusions on Effectiveness of Fuel Management are substantially incorrect. 

Our land was successfully managed for tens of thousands of years, through some extreme climate changes, by people with long experience, but only the most basic technology. It is shocking to see how this has been replaced by reliance on computer modelling and hugely expensive but futile paramilitary response capacity. The inevitable carnage will continue in the wake of this Royal Commission unless active landscape management based on pragmatic science is reinstated.

Contacts

Phil Cheney 0420 896526 (ACT)

Roger Underwood 0429 339405 (WA)

Here is the letter sent by to the Prime Minister
https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/man-made-megafires-letter-to-pm.pdf

The signatories of the document criticising the report are:

  • Gary Squires is a forester with 40+ years’ experience in land and fire management.
  • Sandy Kam is the Administrator of NTCA which includes 14 Councils whose representatives are elected Councillors, many if not all having experience in land and fire management, all representing constituents with vast combined experience.
  • Bruce McCormack is President of MCAV and a mountain cattleman with similar experience representing similar constituents.
  • Peter Rutherford is secretary of SETA, and a forester with 40+ years experience in land and fire management representing similarly experienced constituents.
  • Justin Law is Managing Director of an organisation representing a similar constituency.
  • Mick Holton is President of VFFA representing RFS volunteers who are all firefighters.
  • Viv Forbes is a pastoralist and explorer with science qualifications and wide experience at using and fighting fires in Qld and NT. He was an active member of a local bush fire brigade for about 27 years.

Many of the critics individually have very long experience in land and fire management, all are concerned with the centralised control by bureaucrats lacking local knowledge and land management experience. Mick has personal experience with Fire and Rescue NSW as well as NSW Rural Fire Service.

I love the graph the Bushfire Commission supplied (top of the page), because it demonstrates the absurdity of the Australian temperature anomaly projections the commission used for their statements about future climate change.

Even the age of the Dinosaurs, the Cretaceous, with an average atmospheric CO2 level of 1700ppm, was only +4C temperature anomaly.

Suggesting the Australian temperature anomaly could exceed the warmth of the Cretaceous in the next few decades, with an atmospheric CO2 level far below the 1700ppm of the Cretaceous, is a pretty wild claim.

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/34IVVZO

October 30, 2020 at 08:29PM

Very strong and shallow M7.0 earthquake hits Greece-Turkey border region

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A very strong and shallow earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.0 hit Greece-Turkey border region at 11:51 UTC (13:52 LT) on October 30, 2020. The agency is reporting a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). EMSC is reporting the same magnitude and depth.

The epicenter was located about 14 km (9 miles) NE of Néon Karlovásion (population 6 708), Greece, 32 km (20 miles) WSW of Özdere (population 13 500), Turkey, and 65 km (40 miles) SSW of Izmir (population 2 500 603), Turkey.

There are about 4 590 000 people living within 100 km (62 miles).

30 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 498 000 strong, 4 425 000 moderate, and 15 831 000 light.

Image credit: TW/SAM, Google

The USGS issued a green alert for shaking-related fatalities. There is a low likelihood of casualties.

A yellow alert was issued for economic losses. Some damage is possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of Greece. Past events with this alert level have required a local or regional level response.

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are extremely vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and low-rise nonductile concrete frame with infill construction.

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis and landslides that might have contributed to losses.

At least 12 people were killed and 438 injured in Izmir, Turkey while 2 people died on the island of Samos, Greece.

The quake triggered a tsunami that flooded parts of Izmir and Samos. Some fishermen are reportedly missing.

The tsunami was particularly powerful in the coastal town of Sigacik in Seferiuhisar, The Daily Sabah reported.

At least 12 buildings in Turkey collapsed, trapping people under the rubble. 70 of them have been rescued.

Izmir Governor Yavuz Selim Köşger said four buildings were completely destroyed.

Estimated population exposure to earthquake shaking

Selected cities exposed

Posted by Teo Blašković on October 30, 2020 at 12:36 UTC

via The Watchers

https://watchers.news/

No, “Climate Change” Isn’t Making It Harder to Vote

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By Anthony Watts -October 30, 2020

A press release from a political group called “ClimatePower2020” makes ridiculously wild claims that “climate change” is making it more difficult to vote in the upcoming presidential election, by creating severe weather extremes that keep people from venturing out to vote. There’s simply no credible evidence that “climate change” has anything at all to do with voter access to in-person voting or mail-in voting. The premise is nothing more than climate alarmism at its worst.

The message conveyed by the press release is that “if you vote for Donald Trump, you are enabling voter suppression via climate” because Trump isn’t doing their bidding on climate issues.

At best, this is defective circular logic. At its worst, it’s an outright lie catering to low-information voters.

First, let’s look at who is behind this. The advisory board of this outfit reads like a who’s who of climate alarmism and community organization. It includes a stable of political hacks like Bill Clinton’s former chief of staff and “advisor” to Barack Obama John Podesta, coal baron turned climate activist and former presidential candidate Tom Steyer (based on his track record, Steyer is likely the money behind ClimatePower2020). Then there’s Dr. John Holdren, former Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), who once claimed that “global climate disruption” is what we experience every day, that the winter “polar vortex” was actually proof of global warming, and when pressed to show evidence to back it up, got caught by a Federal Judge in a “bad faith” case.

Then there’s the boatload of community organizers, actors, and social media wannabees that make up the remainder of the advisory board. Clearly, you should take anything ClimatePower2020 says with a grain of salt, because obviously, they are all about political action, and nothing about science.

Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an arm of the United Nations, declared in their Special Report on Extreme Weather that they could not find any evidence of linkage between severe weather events and climate change. Also, in the IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 2 on extremes, they back that up with even more evidence saying there is no linkage.

But the bottom line is this: There’s no credible scientific evidence whatsoever to link climate change with any asserted increase in storms, rainfall, snowfall, heat, or cold events. From a science standpoint, it is a dead issue. Weather is not climate.

Nevertheless, climate alarmists continue to make claims that any variable and normal weather event is proof of alarming climate change. If this makes you wonder what the truth really is, visit ClimateAtAGlance.com where you will find dozens of scientific, easy-to-understand refutations of alarmist claims spanning topics from heatwaves, to floods, to drought, and even that poster child of climate change, polar bears.

Clearly, ClimatePower2020 believes that like the “dark side of The Force” in the Star Wars movie franchise, “climate change” is an “all-powerful Force” and there is nothing it doesn’t make worse. But the scientific evidence simply isn’t there, so all we are left with is a belief system being used to influence the gullible. “The Force” can be powerful, influencing the weak-minded.

With the total lack of supporting evidence, the claims of ClimatePower2020 are just the “fake news” of another dark-money funded political group trying to influence the 2020 election.

The post No, “Climate Change” Isn’t Making It Harder to Vote appeared first on Climate Realism.

Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.