The grifters running click-bait media and faux-scientific outlets have mounted a bogus campaign to instill irrational fears by suggesting global warming is increasing human deaths as in this sample of media headlines.
In contrast, the science, as the graphic data unequivocally shows 1) climate deaths have declined as CO2 has increased because people burned more fossil fuels to stay warm ……and 2) as Lancet research shows, deaths from moderate cold weather far, far, far exceed deaths from extreme heat.
Will the grifters ignorantly outlaw fossil fuel heaters?
The Washington Post (WaPo) ran a so-called fact check on presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s claim during the recent Republican debate that “The climate change agenda is a hoax … The reality is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change,” ruling his claims false. WaPo’s “Fact Checker” analysis is almost certainly wrong, since real world data shows a significant decline in deaths linked to non-optimal temperatures and extreme weather events. Also, most of the deaths in developing countries that Ramaswamy was referring to are preventable, but the poor in developing countries continue to die unnecessarily, in part, because of Western governments and institutions climate policies discouraging and preventing the expanded use of fossil fuels for transportation and reliable electricity.
In the WaPo story, “Vivek Ramaswamy says ‘hoax’ agenda kills more people than climate change,” so-called fact checker, Glenn Kessler, wrote:
Many have interpreted Ramaswamy’s comment that the “climate change agenda is a hoax” as a flat statement that climate change is a hoax. But that doesn’t seem accurate, because a moment later he referred to deaths from “actual climate change.” Instead, he appeared to be suggesting that policies used to stem climate change don’t deliver what they promise and thus are a hoax.
Ramaswamy, a business entrepreneur, is a fan of fossil fuels — in his closing statement he asserted that “fossil fuels are a requirement for human prosperity” …”
At The Fact Checker, we’re interested in numbers; in discussing climate change, Ramaswamy offered a big one. He asserted that more people were dying of bad climate policies than climate change itself. What’s that about?
So far, so good. In fact, numbers are precisely how one can best assess premature mortality claims attributed to climate change in comparison to green energy policies. Yet rather than going to the numbers, some of which do exist, Kessler asked purported “experts,” what they thought of Ramaswamy’s claims.
The first expert Kessler quoted obfuscated the issue by suggesting that the woefully mistitle, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is relatively new with little of its policies being fully enacted. This is true, but laughably beside the point. The IRA is hardly the first law or treaty adopted in the United States, in developed countries, or by international institutions like the United Nations and various “development” banks, to impose restrictions on fossil fuel use and promote expensive and the use intermittent alternative energy technologies instead. Such policies have been common, in the United States and around the world since the U.N Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was first adopted in 1992, 31 years ago. Thousands of policies and programs discouraging or forcibly limiting fossil fuel use, have been adopted since then, and hundreds of billions of dollars, possibly trillions have been spent fighting climate change.
When looking at deaths “threatened” by climate change, Kessler, in lieu of referencing existing trends grounded in hard data for people dying from, for example, malaria, heat exposure, and childhood undernutrition, he refers to climate model generated projections for the future used by the World Health Organization. Why look at future projections when real world data is available? After all, Ramaswamy was speaking about what has happened, not what might happen based on some computer model scenario.
As Climate Realism has repeatedly pointed out in previous posts, here, here, and here, for example, climate models have gotten neither the basic projection they make, the global average temperature and its rate of rise, right, nor the trends in weather events and their real world impacts. If climate models don’t accurately portray the past and the present correctly without adjustments to basically force them to do so, why should their projections of the future be trusted by anyone, especially by a presumably educated, science savvy person like Kessler.
To be fair, Kessler seemingly recognizes that he should be looking at data concerning past when fact checking Ramaswamy’s claim. He writes:
That’s the future. Looking backward, the World Meteorological Organization in May concluded that extreme weather, climate and water-related events caused 11,000 reported disasters between 1970 and 2021, resulting in just over 2 million deaths. Nine out of 10 deaths took place in developing countries. Economic losses amounted to $4.3 trillion.
Whether all of these deaths are the result of climate change could be subject to dispute. Many of the highest death tolls from extreme weather took place decades ago; better weather forecasting and improved disaster response have helped reduce death tolls. The highest death tolls listed by WMO are 300,000 from a 1983 drought in Ethiopia and 300,000 from a 1970 storm in Bangladesh.
What’s in dispute is whether any of these deaths resulted from human caused climate change, much less all of them.
Most of the deaths cited by Kessler were tied to extreme weather occurred when the earth was in a cooling period, when many scientists were warning of a possible pending ice age, before the modest recent warming now labeled dangerous and attributed to recent causes. One cannot determine whether climate change caused any particular event, but one can look at trends over time so see whether deaths related to extreme weather and temperatures are increasing and coincide with change in climate. Doing so, the evidence is clear and should be convincing to anyone with an open mind, though you wouldn’t know that from reading Kessler’s WaPo article.
Kessler provided a very narrow selection of numbers. What data shows is that during the period of recent warming, deaths related to extreme weather events have declined by more than 99 percent over the past 100 years, as discussed in Climate Realism posts, here and here, for example. Extreme weather events killed nearly 500,000 people annually in the 1920s, but by 2021 only 7,790 deaths were attributable to extreme weather events. Concerning deaths related to extreme temperatures, multiple large scale peer reviewed studies in top journals, perhaps most prominently in The Lancet, show that cold temperatures kill far more people each year than hot temperatures. They also demonstrate that as temperatures have modestly warmed, the number of deaths tied to non-optimum temperatures has declined.
Concerning hunger and malnutrition, research cited in more nearly 200 articles posted at Climate Realism show that as carbon dioxide levels have risen, crop production has boomed for almost every crop one cares to discuss, in nation after nation spanning all parts of the globe. Agronomy explains that a large part of the reason for the crop production and yield increases is due to the improved fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide levels, a decline in late season frosts, longer growing seasons, generally improved moisture conditions in the worlds major growing regions, and plants’ improved abilities to use water efficiently. Neither Kessler nor the experts he spoke with provided any reason for believing any of these conditions will worsen should the Earth continue its modest trajectory of warming in the foreseeable future.
This CO2 induced increase in crop production has not eliminated hunger and malnutrition, but research shows it has diminished it considerably. Forty-four percent of the world’s population lived in absolute poverty in 1981 – 42 years of global warming ago. Since then, the share of people living in such poverty fell below 10 percent by 2015. And although 700 million people worldwide still suffer from persistent hunger, the United Nations reports the number of hungry people has declined by two billion since 1990 – 33 years of global warming ago.
Let’s talk about the second part of Ramaswamy’s claim, that climate policies are killing more people than climate change.
Just as it is impossible to link any particular death to “climate change,” it is equally impossible to link any particular death to a specific climate policy, so hard “data,” which Kessler suddenly places at a premium, is necessarily lacking.
However, common sense and research strongly suggest that policies that slow the introduction and use of modern high yield farming techniques and technologies in developing countries, like restrictions on fossil fuel use and the use of fertilizers and pesticides made from oil and natural gas, result in lower yields and growth, and this contributes to hunger, malnutrition, and in extreme cases deaths from starvation. While we don’t know how many lives of the hundreds of millions of people still suffering from persistent hunger or facing starvation would be saved by improved agricultural production, it is certainly orders of magnitude more than the less than 10,000 who died as a result of extreme weather events in 2021.
How many people died unnecessarily in 2021, and during the more than three decades years since the UNFCCC was adopted, in developing countries due to climate policies that prevented or slowed the construction and operation of modern medical facilities with dependable 24/7 electric power there. Power that is provided best by coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants. How many women’s and children’s lives were lost during or near birth due to the absence of modern medical facilities and the hundreds of energy intensive technologies and products used daily at hospitals in developed countries, which oil and gas either power or are component parts of. No regular refrigeration keeping medicines and foods usable, no nighttime lighting or power for emergency surgeries and difficult births. When people die due to lack of modern medical care as a result of energy poverty, that’s a death attributable, in many instances in this day and age, to climate policies and restrictions adopted by governments, and international institutions like the United Nations and the World Bank.
Then there is air quality. Indoor air quality is a leading cause premature death in poor countries accounting for more than 2.3 million preventable deaths per year, writes Our World Data, discussing findings from the World Health Organization. Our World Data attributes the cause to the use of renewable fuels in the home, writing:
Indoor air pollution is caused by burning solid fuel sources – such as firewood, crop waste, and dung – for cooking and heating.
The burning of such fuels, particularly in poor households, results in air pollution that leads to respiratory diseases which can result in premature death. The WHO calls indoor air pollution “the world’s largest single environmental health risk.
How many lives would be saved each year if the impoverished households currently burning renewable but dirty wood and dung were plugged into a modern electric power system, fueled by the cleanest, coal, natural gas, or even nuclear plants. Emissions from modern coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants don’t threaten ill health or premature death. They are certainly cleaner sources of heat and light than wood and dung, and they are more reliable than wind and solar.
In short, energy poverty is a killer and climate policies maintain energy poverty in developing countries, while forcing more lower income people into energy poverty due to higher energy prices in developed countries. All things considered, Ramaswamy is almost certainly correct to claim climate policies kill more people each year than climate change, and thus, contrary to Kessler’s assessment, merited no “Pinocchios,” rather than the four Kessler assigned.
H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., is the Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy and the managing editor of Environment & Climate News.
In addition to directing The Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy, Burett puts Environment & Climate News together, is the editor of Heartland’s Climate Change Weekly email, and the host of the Environment & Climate News Podcast.
MSNBC’s Alex Wagner aired a segment on April 28 titled, “Republican policy on climate change takes a turn for the absurd.” The only problem was Wagner made provably false statements as ‘proof’ that the climate realist positions of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) are scientifically “absurd.”
Wagner aired a clip of Greene saying climate always changes and no amount of taxation and regulation will change that. Wagner then aired a clip of Johnson pointing out that Wisconsin has a relatively cold climate and Wisconsinites might benefit from some warming. Wagner then mocked Greene and Johnson, claiming climate change is causing starvation and death.
The problem for Wagner is objective facts show just the opposite of what she claims. Global crop production is increasing dramatically as the planet modestly warms. Moreover, peer-reviewed medical data show far more people throughout the world die from cold temperatures and cold-related factors than hot temperatures and heat-related factors. By the data, warming temperatures are having a dramatic life-saving impact.
Regarding starvation, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) compiles and reports in-depth data on global and nation-by-nation crop production. FAO devotes particular attention to the world cereal harvest, which is comprised of the critical staple crops of rice, wheat, and corn. According to FAO, the most recent global crop year – 2021/2022 – produced the second-largest cereal crop in history. The previous year produced the third-largest cereal crop in history. All five of the five highest cereal crop years occurred during the past five years. FAO reports that global cereal crop production has risen 20 percent during the past decade.
Crop experts expect those gains to continue. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and FAO project, in their OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030, that global cereal production will increase by 336 million tons during this current decade. That represents another 12 percent increase in cereal crop production.
The crop data are not surprising, as carbon dioxide serves as aerial plant food. Horticulturists pump carbon dioxide into greenhouses precisely because carbon dioxide enhances plant growth. Also, warmer global temperatures extend growing seasons. Warmer temperatures additionally reduce harmful frost events and freezes during growing seasons. Moreover, higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels enable plants to be more productive with less water, making plants more tolerant of any droughts that periodically occur. Each of these factors explain why scientists have measured a substantial increase in global vegetation during recent decades.
Regarding human deaths and mortality, scientists have examined human death rates and mortality causes throughout the world. In a peer-reviewed study published in Lancet – the world’s most prestigious medical journal – scientists report 7.7% of deaths worldwide are caused by temperatures that are less than ideal. Among those 7.7% of deaths caused by sub-optimal temperatures, 20 times more people die from cold temperatures or cold-related factors than the number of people who die from hot temperatures or heat-related factors.
Alex Wagner’s snarky, I-follow-the-science statement that global warming is causing starvation and death is typical of the tone and inaccuracy of the industrial climate complex’s assertions regarding climate change. People like Johnson and Greene make statements questioning the so-called climate crisis, then uninformed climate believers ridicule the skeptical statements by simply making up and presenting statements that are undeniably falsified by objective scientific data.
James Taylor is the President of the Heartland Institute. Taylor is also director of Heartland’s Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy.
Taylor is the former managing editor (2001-2014) of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly publication devoted to sound science and free-market environmentalism.
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Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
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