From Tallbloke’s Talkshop

By Ray Sanders

Katesbridge is a small hamlet with a quoted population of just 150 people. It lies approximately 20 miles southwest of Belfast and 12 miles north east of Newry in County Down. The weather station is not in the hamlet of Katesbridge itself, rather it is about 1.5 miles to the east south east in a notably rural spot. The issue with this site is that it lies in a location that the Met Office expressly states is “Undersirable” but then still goes on to proclaim this as a “Climate Averages” site representative of a wide area. And it certainly does produce some very interesting figures.

Although Tim Channon focused on World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) numbered sites in his original Surface Stations Project he also reviewed some of the more notable non WMO sites – Katesbridge was one of them.

His report and the many and very detailed comments below it are well worth studying for the valuable local content added. Importantly, Tim felt this could well be a Class 1 rated site and he rarely called things wrong as time and subsequent Met Office ratings have shown. Revisiting it myself I could not initially see how this site could be rated at anything lower than Class 2 and agreed with Tim that the site has class 1 potential solely based on distances from buildings, roads etc and ground cover. Katesbridge appeared to fall into that category of Drummond Castle, Levens Hall and Stowe amongst many other rural sites that are marked down by the Met Office for no immediate visual reason.

However, looking deeper into this particular site brings up many valid claims that it is in a significant “frost hollow”. What initially does the Met Office claim about frost hollows and weather stations.

There are numerous sources of evidence that Katesbridge is in a major frost hollow.

The BBC regularly runs articles on Katesbridge whenever there is a cold snap.

Clearly Katesbridge gets cold due to known effects. The weather station itself is a fully equipped synoptic site which was originally just a rain gauge location later enhanced for immediate forecasting purposes. This makes perfect sense in that, in temperature terms, freezing events are critical to forecasting as they represent dangers in multitudes of ways from agriculture to transport and many others. Being a degree or two out on mild days is really no problem but missing a frost event can have major consequences.

It is perfectly right and proper for a site specific to local conditions to be in Katesbridge beyond any doubt. What is very strange is to use such micro-climate readings as representing a wider area. This practise is akin to reversing the walled kitchen garden effect where every attempt is made to avoid naturally occurring frosts. Then again the Met Office has form in using very many walled gardens and still installs weather stations in such inappropriate sites even in the recent 21st Century.

The Met Office says Katesbridge is ”Undesirable” but then assess the site by their own (Roy Spencer PhD approved!) unique system as the second best possible category of “GOOD” as disclosed under Freedom of information request.

Conversely the WMO is quite unequivocal about the use of micro-climates including frost hollows for climate recording purposes. From Grok AI regarding WMO Commission for Instruments for Meteorological Observations guidance:

“Key Relevant Guidance

In Part I, Chapter 2 (Measurement of Temperature), the guide emphasizes site representativeness and states that stations should be sited to avoid locations where cold air drainage leads to unrepresentative low minimum temperatures. Specifically:

• Sites in small valleys, hollows, depressions, or basin-like topography should be avoided because cold, dense air pools there on calm, clear nights, causing significantly lower temperatures than in surrounding areas (often by several degrees).
• Such locations produce microclimatic biases that make data less representative of the broader regional climate.
• Preferred sites are on level ground, gently sloping terrain, or plateaus where air drainage is free and temperatures are more homogeneous with the larger area.

This aligns closely with national guidelines (e.g., UK Met Office), which explicitly label frost hollows as “undesirable” for the same reasons.“

There is no uncertainty here, frost hollow sites should not be used for climate reporting in the same way as any known micro climate of any type should not be used. Seems, however, the Met Office did not get that memo. To further quote AI (as most budding Climate Science under graduates no doubt will) is the following quite emphatic statement.

“The CIMO guidelines clearly advise against using potential frost hollows for routine climate reporting data due to non-representative extremes in minimum temperatures.”

So, then we have this:

Yes, the exact type of site not to be used for climate reporting purposes was very specifically chosen by Met Office chief scientists Daniel Hollis and Matthew Perry to compile these climate averages listings. Odd how the UK Government Minister Lord Vallance was happy to sign a letter claiming these climate average and “historic” figures are not really used, instead just HadCrut which is directly derived from them is used. {Presumably such “location specific, long-term averages” pages are just for “Entertainment” value?}

And now onto the big “Reveal” of what these seemingly disowned stats actually claim……..

30-year averaging period 1991 to 2020

30 Year averaging period 1961 to 1990

Thus Mean Maximum Increase = 0.78 °C Mean Minimum Increase = 0.33°C

How does this compare to the neighbouring Climate Stations quoted above. Starting with Killowen (temperature records only started in 1997) just 16 miles away.

The 1990 to 2020 compilation.

And now 1961 to 1990 – just the figures line for simplicity.

Mean Maximum Increase = 0.90 °C Mean Minimum Increase = 1.79°C

Pause for thought on that – Killown is showing a staggering 1.79°C mean minimum increase as opposed to less than a fifth of that numerical increase at just 0.33°C at Katesbridge! Ah well you say that’s obviously because Katesbridge is in a frost hollow and should not be used. But Chief Scientists Dan hollis and Matthew Perry must have known that and they still selected both of them for inclusion so that is definitely no “Get out of jail” card. How does this level of mean discrepancy apply to other sites?

Helens Bay is on the coast of County Down and definitely no frost hollow there distorting readings.

1991-2020

1961 to 1990

Not quite Killowen standards but it still shows an impressive 1.15°C mean minimum increment.

Realistically how are all these huge variations possible? This is all in just one small county within a small country producing massively different changes in mean temperatures on a scale that no credible scientist could accept as a variation in the “signal” of “Global Warming-Boiling/Climate Change-Crisis” ….call it what you wish. It should be blatantly obvious to anyone that this is not any form of credible evidence.

What it most certainly is revealing is that the Met Office’s practices are way below acceptable and, for myriad reasons I have regularly detailed, clearly produce “Garbage” figures going either into or coming out of their historic climate computer systems. The resulting hotch-potch of variations is worthless.

I openly challenge the Met Office, Science Feedback, Lord Vallance and even Roy Spencer to justify such poor standards and rank Disinformation. I am not holding my breath though because they know full well that they cannot justify such nonsense so in lieu I expect more ad-hominem attacks on me……..they can’t play the ball.