From KlimaNachrichten

By KlimaNachrichten Redakteur

Monthly newsletter from Fritz Vahrenholt

As the chart above shows, the global mean temperature in April remained about the same as in the previous month. The deviation from the long-term average of satellite measurements is now 0.61 degrees Celsius. The warming surge from 2022-2025 is clearly visible, which cannot be explained by the conventional narrative of CO2-related warming. This relationship becomes even more inexplicable when one looks at ice formation in the Antarctic and sea ice in the Arctic: Both have surprisingly increased in recent years.

The Antarctic ice is increasing

If you look at the Helmholtz Society’s climate website with the ambitious name “Climate Facts” under Antarctica, you will read the following:
“The important Antarctic continental ice is disappearing, and at an increasing pace”. According to the Helmholtz Society, this would be of great importance for rising sea levels. And indeed, the rising sea level due to the melting ice of the Antarctic is one of the central arguments of climate policy that has worried people.
All the more surprising is the result of a recently published study, according to which the picture has changed since 2021:
Antarctica’s continental ice is increasing again.

Chinese researchers at Tongji University led by Prof. Shen and Dr. Wang determined that Antarctica’s ice masses have increased very sharply since 2021. The evaluated data from NASA’s GRACE satellite had determined an annual loss of 74 billion tons per year from 2002 to 2010. From 2011 to 2020, the amount even doubled. Now the ice has increased by about 108 billion tons year after year. (see next graphic, source Science China Press)

Since the melting of the Antarctic glaciers contributed about 20% to sea level rise, a weakening of the rise has now been observed since 2021. Wouldn’t this good news be worth spreading on the Tagesschau? So far none.
A second piece of good news is also not spread by the Tagesschau and political Berlin: Arctic sea ice has not been decreasing for over 10 years. This was highlighted by a recent publication by Mark England of the University of Exeter and Lorenzo Polvani of Columbia University in New York. The researchers report an expected decades-long pause in the decline of Arctic sea ice. They expect it to be at least for the next 5-10 years.

As recently as 2009, John Kerry, US climate envoy, had sounded the alarm that the Arctic would become ice-free in 2013. The reality developed differently. (see next graphic) Source NASA)

Satellite measurements have documented the decline in Arctic sea ice up to 2012, as well as the subsequent stabilisation and slight recovery. The annual September minimum is used for comparison. After the strong warming of recent years, a further decline had been expected. But the sea ice remains stable. These clear measurement data do not prevent the Tagesschau on March 28, 2025, from reporting that the decline in sea ice is continuing, with serious consequences for the climate system. And for such false information, which apparently serves political purposes, we still pay broadcasting fees.

Climate science in crisis?

More and more often, the forecasts of the climate models deviate from reality. Axel Bojanowski let two scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg have their say. Prof. Bjorn Stevens and Prof. Jochem Marotzke speak of a crisis in climate science. Marotzke: “The current class of climate models gets into too many contradictions with reality.” Marotzke is worried about the great uncertainty of the models. As examples, he cites: “In large parts of the world, the models contradict each other on the question of whether it will rain more or less in the future. The warming of the earth’s surface between 1998 and 2012 was much slower than predicted by the models (“hiatus”).
Since 1979, the tropical eastern Pacific has cooled, contrary to the expectations of all models that simulate warming there.”

Marotzke speaks of “the other climate crisis” with regard to climate science. “This is the moment for a paradigm shift.” My impression is that some clever scientists are now realizing that they have brought a lot of misfortune to their peoples by pointing to the unshakable statements of the climate models, because they wanted to avoid the imminent catastrophe too quickly, with completely inappropriate measures. One will remember the statements of the UN: “Only renewable energies are the exit from the highway to climate hell” (Guterres). Or “Emissions of greenhouse gases have clearly caused global warming, with the global surface temperature in 2011–2020 being 1.1 °C above the value of 1850–1900. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2023, Synthesis report A1).

These statements are based on climate models, for which, according to Marotzke, we now need a paradigm shift because they no longer reflect reality sufficiently accurately after just a few years.
When will there be a paradigm shift in climate policy in this country?

Sincerely,

Fritz Vahrenholt