From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

Many noticed the Gore effect during COP28 when Arctic ice extents grew rapidly to catch up and exceed normal. Now in the first 10 days of January Arctic ice is growing way faster than normal. On the left, both Bering and Okhotsk seas are now ~65% of their maxes. Kara at top is 100% of max and Barents next to Kara is 83% of max. Overall, the Arctic has already reached 93% of last year’s Mid March maximum.

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai. Now January is breaking the glazed ceiling outstriping past conditions.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent the first 10 days of January 2024, the 18 year average and some other recent years, as well as SII (Sea Ice Index).

MASIE and SII are both well above the 18 year average, and almost 10 days ahead of it. 2024 is on the verge of breaking 14M km2, just 400k km2 short of normal extents at end of January.  

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2024010	Day 10	2024-Ave.	2007010	2024-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13940138	13508235	431903	13334598	605540
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070352	614	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965221	785	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897836	8	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	934227	914139	20088	909703	24524
(6) Barents_Sea	593194	463310	129884	363027	230166
(7) Greenland_Sea	722914	577267	145647	576959	145955
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	941219	1088951	-147732	934564	6655
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853418	1442	852767	2094
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1249501	11402	1260839	65
(11) Central_Arctic	3233482	3202675	30807	3204750	28732
(12) Bering_Sea	492428	503203	-10775	606863	-114435
(13) Baltic_Sea	128886	33634	95252	3303	125582
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	729537	565328	164209	585350	144187

Note that Arctic ice now nearly 14M km2 and  432k km2 above average, or 3.2%.  As shown in the table above, the only deficit to average is in Baffin Bay,  Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, especially in Greenland sea, along with Barents and Okhotsk seas. Really, the only regions left to grow much up to max are Baffin Bay, Bering and Okhotsk seas.