From Watts Up With That?
Guest “You can’t fix stupid” by David Middleton
Did Biden really think cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline would force Canada to leave the oil in the ground?
20 January 2021
Biden kills Keystone XL permit, again
President-elect Joe Biden formally announced on Wednesday he was revoking a key permit for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, the second time a Democratic administration has scuttled the $8 billion project in less than a decade.
[…]Politico
24 January 2021
Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline sees fortunes shine after KXL’s demise
WINNIPEG/OTTAWA (Reuters) – The expansion of Canada’s government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline assumes greater importance for the oil sector after the cancellation of rival Keystone XL reduced future options to carry crude, potential buyers say.
Trans Mountain Corp, a government corporation, is spending C$12.6 billion ($9.9 billion) to nearly triple capacity to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 14% increase from current total Canadian capacity.
[…]Reuters
2024 January 8
Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion reportedly 95% complete
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI), Giving Data Meaning (GDM), and the Government of Canada: Natural Resources Canada
Work on Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project is reportedly over 95% complete. When it comes onstream, the expansion will nearly triple the pipeline’s current 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) capacity to move crude oil from oil sands in landlocked Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast for export to new customers in Asia or along the U.S. West Coast. Although initially expected to come online early this year, the project could be delayed as much as two years by a recent ruling, according to the project’s owner.
The existing Trans Mountain Pipeline currently offers one avenue for waterborne crude oil exports out of Canada by moving crude oil from Edmonton in Alberta to Burnaby, a port near Vancouver on the coast of British Columbia. The expansion project aims to increase the pipeline’s current capacity by 590,000 b/d, bringing the pipeline to a capacity of 890,000 b/d.
The Canadian government acquired the pipeline from Kinder Morgan for CA $4.5 billion in 2018 and formed the Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC) to oversee and manage the pipeline and the expansion project. The pipeline expansion, which consists of added pipeline capacity that generally runs along a similar route to the current pipeline, has faced several legal challenges from environmental activists and Canadian First Nations groups.
Data source: Canada Energy Regulator, Canada’s Energy Future
Canada’s crude oil production increased steadily for most of the last 13 years. Canada’s average annual production of crude oil and condensate rose nearly 2.0 million b/d between 2009 to 2019. In 2020, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic decreased crude oil production as crude oil prices declined significantly. Canada’s production has since resumed its growth trend. Canada’s production exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2022 when crude oil and condensate production averaged 4.9 million b/d, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).
Most new growth in Canada’s crude oil production is concentrated in the landlocked province of Alberta. In 2022, Alberta’s crude oil production accounted for 82.7% of total crude oil production in Canada, up from 76.1% in 2012.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly
Currently, more crude oil flows from Canada to the United States than to any other country by a wide margin; U.S. imports from Canada have averaged about 3.7 million b/d since 2020, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. U.S. crude oil imports from Canada accounted for about 79% of Canada’s total crude oil production during that time. Canada is also the largest source of crude oil imports to the United States, and these imports primarily flow to refineries in the Midwest and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
CER’s refusal on December 5 to grant a variance request to Trans Mountain may delay the project start date. After the decision was issued, Trans Mountain indicated the delay could last as long as two years.
Principal contributor: Kevin Hack
Tags: pipelines, liquid fuels, oil/petroleum, crude oil, production/supply, exports/imports, map, Canada, internationalUS EIA
Killing Keystone: Almost as dumb as draining the SPR
Biden may actually have done Canada a favor.
Markets
Canada produces more oil and natural gas than we need to meet energy demand within our country, so the remainder is exported. Currently, almost all of Canada’s oil and natural gas exports go to one customer: the United States.
Diversifying markets for Canada’s oil and natural gas production is vital to ensure Canada receives full value for its natural resources, and to ensure the industry continues to support Canadian jobs, government revenues and contributions to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP). Energy exports can also establish Canada as a global supplier of responsibly produced energy, providing energy security for nations in need while potentially displacing oil and natural gas supplied by authoritarian regimes.
[…]
NEW MARKETS
World demand for crude oil is expected to grow in the coming decades. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report World Energy Outlook 2022, global oil demand will increase from 94.5 million b/d in 2021 to 102.4 million b/d by 2023, that’s an 8% increase. The combined demand growth from China and India alone is forecast to be 3.1 million b/d.
As a consequence of Biden’s malfeasance, Canadian oil producers will benefit from market diversification. On the other hand, US refiners will be harmed by government-imposed market disruptions.
Making China Great Again
Canada’s Trans Mountain pipe expansion to disrupt oil flow to US, boost prices
By Nia Williams and Stephanie Kelly
September 19, 2023
CALGARY, Sept 19 (Reuters) – Canada’s Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion (TMX), which will nearly triple the flow of crude from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast beginning early next year, will shake up North America’s supply by diverting barrels now mainly delivered to refiners and exporters in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.
Its startup could add as much as $2 per barrel to prices paid by U.S. Midwest oil refineries that sit along Canada’s existing main oil-export route. Plants that benefited from discounted oil include those operated by BP (BP.L), Citgo Petroleum, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Koch Industries’ Flint Hills Resources, analysts said.
[…]Reuters
Some of the Trans Mountain pipeline oil will be delivered to refiners on the US west coast, however refining capacity (PADD 5, green curve) has been declining since 2010.
Heavy oil that would have been delivered to PADD 2 and PADD 3 refineries will now go to Asia and PADD 5 refineries.
Refilling the SPR
During his first two years of aimlessly wandering around the White House, Biden drained 40% of the SPR in a futile effort to boost his poll numbers.
How’s that refilling process going?
Once Again: It’s America Last
Addendum
Supplying energy to the U.S. ChiComs
Trudeau noted that while his government is concerned with climate change, the oilsands would continue to be developed.
“No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil and just leave it in the ground,” he said. “The resource will be developed. Our job is to ensure this is done responsibly, safely and sustainably.”EnergyNow.ca
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