From Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The NASA GISS global average temperature anomaly for November 2023 was released (provided below) which shows an El Niño driven value of 1.44 degrees C (2.592 degrees F) with the November outcome hyped in an L A Times article as being “a new monthly record for heat” and the “hottest November”.

This GISS anomaly value represents a November global absolute average temperature of 59.792 degrees F.

The prior highest measured GISS November global average temperature anomaly was in the year 2020 with a value of 1.10 degrees C (1.98 degrees F) which represents a November global absolute average temperature of 59.18 degrees F – a difference of 0.612 degrees F which the Times has hyped as being the “hottest November”.

The highest prior GISS measured EL Nino year average temperature anomaly was in 2016 at 1.37 degrees C (2.466 degrees F) which represents an absolute temperature of 59.666 degrees F – a difference of 0.126 degrees F (1/8th of a degree F) from the November 2023 EL Nino driven anomaly value. 

The climate alarmist propaganda media misleadingly exaggerate the small average temperature anomaly differences between these measurements by deliberately concealing the specific numerical value of such differences and instead hyping these carefully hidden small differences as being “a new monthly record for heat” and the “hottest November” even when the latest measured GISS global anomaly value is only 1/8th of a degree F changed from the highest prior year 2016 EL Nino value.

The L A Times climate alarmist article continues to conceal and downplay the overwhelming importance of the large year 2023 El Niño event with the obvious impact that such a naturally occurring global wide climate event has in hugely increasing both absolute and anomaly temperature measurement outcomes around the world.

The Times article ridiculously hypes (shown below) that November 2023 is the “sixth straight month to set a heat record” that “has truly been shocking” with people “running out of adjectives to describe this” when the NASA GISS data shown above clearly establishes that this many month-long pattern of increasing anomalies is completely consistent with the year 2016 Global El Nino event which experienced 7 straight months of increasing anomalies from October 2015 through April 2016.

The GISS November 2023 global average temperature anomaly represents a mathematically derived composite average value of all global average temperature anomaly measurement data representing an extraordinary array of five disparate global climate regions (shown below) along with the huge disparate climate behavior differences present in the global hemispheres with their unique and far flung oceans, continents, mountains, deserts, rain forests, low lands, etc.

The mathematically contrived global average temperature anomaly result is created through a composite menagerie of widely disparate climate region data outcomes that apply to no specific region or location anywhere on earth.

Additionally, climate alarmist hyped claims of “limiting global warming to 2 degrees C (temperature anomaly value) above pre-industrial times” are based on a climate model referred to as RCP8.5 that was rejected by Working Group I, The Physical Science, of the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR6, 2021).    

The climate alarmist propaganda media erroneously misrepresent the contrived global average temperature anomaly data in support of their hyped climate alarmists claims while ignoring and concealing extensive anomaly and absolute   temperature measurement data that conflicts with their highly contrived global average temperature anomaly driven methodology.     

Extensive NOAA anomaly and absolute temperature measurement data is readily available for the Contiguous U.S that addresses both average temperature anomaly measurements as well as maximum absolute temperature measurements.

The graph below shows NOAA’s average temperature anomaly measurements through November 2023 for the Contiguous U.S. which clearly demonstrates there is no increasing trend in the average temperature anomaly data for the Contiguous U.S. using the most accurate USCRN temperature measurement stations that went into operation in 2005.

The NOAA November 2023 El Niño year average temperature anomaly value is 1.44 degrees F compared to the prior November 2016 El Niño year average temperature anomaly value of 4.88 degrees F.

Furthermore, the highest measured NOAA Contiguous U.S. November average temperature anomaly value from the USCRN temperature measurement stations was also the November 2016 El Niño year outcome of 4.88 degrees F compared to the November 2023 El Nino year value of 1.44 degrees F. 

The next highest NOAA Contiguous U.S. November average temperature anomaly outcomes following the 4.88-degree F year 2016 value occurred (highest to lowest order) in the years 2020, 2009, 2017, 2021, 2005, 2015 and then 2023 respectively.

Thus, the November 2023 Contiguous U.S. average temperature anomaly value is only the 8th highest measured by the USCRN for the month of November.  

The L A Times alarmist article conceals the most relevant Contiguous U.S. year 2023 climate average temperature anomaly data available from its readers with that data clearly showing the lack of any record-breaking climate anomaly outcomes in the Contiguous U.S. region.

Instead, the Times article hypes a contrived global average temperature anomaly outcome that applies nowhere on earth while at the same time falsely positing that this contrived global anomaly outcome is relevant to the Contiguous U.S. region.

The NOAA climate data shown below provides the November 2023 absolute maximum temperature measurements for the period 1895 to 2023 in the Contiguous U.S. that establishes the November 2023 outcome is only the 109th highest out of 129 maximum November temperature measurements recorded during the 1895 to 2023 period.

The NOAA data below provides the maximum November 2023 year to date interval temperatures in the Contiguous U.S. for the period 1895 to 2023 establishing that the year 2023 January through November absolute maximum temperature is only the 115th maximum temperature interval out of 129  maximum interval temperature measurements.

The NOAA data below provides the absolute maximum temperatures for all months between 1895 and November 2023 for the Contiguous U.S. establishing that month of November 2023 is only the 592nd highest maximum temperature out of 1547 absolute maximum temperatures measured with the highest ever measured maximum temperatures occurring in the dust bowl era of the 1930s.

NOAA has extensive temperature measurement data available for 9 U.S. Regions as shown in their Map below with access to this data obtained through NOAA’s Regional Time Series option at the links noted for the above graphs. 

Without belaboring this analysis any further all NOAA’s  9 Contiguous U.S. climate regions measured data establish that November 2023 does not represent the highest absolute maximum temperature for any of these regions regardless of whether one is evaluating just the month of November, the January to November period interval or all months over the period 1895 through November 2023.

NOAA also has data available for all 48 Contiguous U.S. states as well as for Alaska using NOAA’s Statewide Time Series option available at the links noted above.  

NOAA data for California establishes that November 2023 does not represent the highest absolute maximum temperature regardless of whether one is evaluating just the month of November, the January to November period interval or all months over the period 1895 through November 2023 as shown below where November 2023 is only the 602nd of 1547 absolute maximum temperature outcomes during 1895 to November 2023 period.

NOAA’s extensive and readily available climate data for the Contiguous U.S. (both average temperature anomaly and absolute maximum temperature measurements) clearly shows that climate alarmist propaganda claims of a “climate emergency” (including such claims in the L A Times) are unsupported by NOAA average temperature anomaly and absolute maximum temperature climate data measurements.

Additionally, this extensive NOAA data is deliberately concealed by climate alarmists while at the same time erroneously misrepresenting the critical climate science differences between maximum absolute temperature and average temperature anomaly data measurements.