From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

More drivel from the Telegraph:

Every morning, before doing anything else, I make coffee. It’s a ritual as much as a caffeine fix, with little thought given to its provenance. Yet this morning, I’ve got my hands on something a little different. Lighter in colour than my usual jet-black brew, it is more nuanced in flavour, with hints of grapefruit and less bitterness. It is delicious. It may also secure the future of one of the world’s most popular drinks.

In Britain, we drink about 98 million cups per day, with an estimated two billion consumed worldwide. The coffee industry sustains 210,000 jobs here, and around 100 million farmers depend on it globally. From instant coffee at a greasy spoon to a fancy oat-milk latte, coffee is big business. Yet its future is at risk.

A recent report by Christian Aid warned that climate change could reduce the land available for growing coffee by 54 per cent by 2100, even if global temperatures are kept to internationally agreed targets. On May 17, the World Meteorological Organisation said that temperatures could breach the 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2027. It’s not good news for coffee growers and lovers.

According to Dr Aaron Davis, a global expert in coffee and climate change, and head of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, coffee is one of the most researched plants when it comes to climate change, with almost 150 studies published, and the outlook seems dire. Even if commitments to reduce carbon emissions are met, a 2022 study in Nature suggests coffee production will still see a rapid decline in countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world’s arabica coffee supply. 

“It’s not something that’s going to happen in the future, it’s already happening,” says Dr Davis. “It’s very real.” 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/drinks/why-your-morning-coffee-is-facing-extinction/

Notice the comment, it’s already happening. So this is not just the usual scare about something happening in the distant future; it’s a very specific claim that climate change is already affecting coffee production.

And is it?

Plainly not. The UN figures go up to 2021, and although there was sharp decline that year, such drops frequently occur. Even then 2021 coffee output was the 4th highest on record.

https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

The Telegraph goes on to specifically mention three countries:

The world’s largest producer, Brazil, and Vietnam, the second, have both experienced concerning weather patterns just this year: extreme heat and drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Brazil. “Last year, coffee harvests were influenced by drought in many countries, and long-term climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular,” Dr Davis explains. In Uganda, exports fell by about 20 per cent in 2022. 

But the UN data shows nothing of concern in the long term trends in any of these. Note also the weasel words, climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular. On the other hand, maybe it won’t!

Interestingly the drop in Brazilian coffee output in 2021 was due to severe frosts, the opposite of what global warming is supposed to bring:

The journalist who wrote this piffle is the Telegraph’s Assistant Food Editor. I suggest that in future he sticks to restaurants and recipes, and leaves serious stuff like this to economic experts.