Arctic sea ice extent as recorded by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, looks at the situation in January 2024. Despite the record temperatures reported, the ice in the Arctic has recovered somewhat.
The slight recovery trend since the Arctic minimum was reached is continuing at the beginning of 2024, with the sea ice extent at the beginning of the year below the average value for the years 1981 – 2010, but in the lower range of the extreme values (minimum / maximum) of this international climate normal period (Figure 1).
If we look at the new reference period 1991 – 2020 introduced by the World Meteorological Organization in 2021, January 2024 is roughly in line with the mean value of this period (see interactive graphic). The average Arctic sea ice extent in January was 13.99 million square kilometers, around 400,000 square kilometers greater than the ice cover in January over the last 20 years (Figure 2). During the month, the extent increased by approximately 29,000 square kilometers per day, which was slower than the average increase from 1981 to 2010.”
Image: Screenshot Meereisportal.de
Among highest in past 20 years
The above chart indeed shows a stable trend over the past 2 decades. According to the AWI:
This year’s maximum sea ice extent most likely occurred on February 27, at 14.94 million square kilometers. The monthly average ice extent in February was 14.65 million square kilometers.”
That makes it higher than 15 of the past 20 years.
Compared to the long-term average for the years 2003 – 2014, it is noticeable that the sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea is lower, but the Greenland Sea and the northern Baltic Sea in the Gulf of Bothnia and the coastal zones of the Barents Sea have more extensive sea ice areas. This indicates lower and longer-lasting cold periods in these regions.”
Cool down and Cooling off concept as a diver diving into frozen ice water as a symbol for managing hot weather summer heat and refreshing break from a heatwave.
You have been reading about COP28 here on CFACT.
Much of what COP28 is about is absurd.
At the core of it, they revealed to the world a plan that is about as anti-common sense, anti-progress, anti-human, and since I am sure the creator wants humans to have some common sense and progress.
For me, the WMO has delivered the smoking gun of the points I am trying to make. I am grateful to them and of course CFACT for letting me continue to show the evidence of all this.
without further adieu here is how unwittingly ignorant they are
They put this out
You will notice that until the 1990s, there was a lot more blue than there is the red we see now
This is confirmed of course by what I have shown you how little change in temps there was from the 1950s through 80s despite the steady rise of CO2
1950s SST
1980s
The ocean stays cool, air stays cool. Whatever warming in the air there was and it was minor, perhaps we can say was CO2
How much did it warm?
Not a whole lot I can’t even tell. 1981-1990
Their chart confirms this
So let’s again show that wonderful gift from the WMO again
Now lets show what I have shown a dozen times here, the increase in SST in response to increased geothermal forcing
and again to remind you what the odds are that this is not the cause
In what world can someone simply ignore what is direct linkage? A lack of warming until this occurs, and then the warming of the ocean, increase in WV which would make sense given its properties vs CO2, and the air warms
I will tell you what world.
A world where someone who was on cocaine much of the time can somehow be paid close to 30 million dollars from foreign entities using his father’s influence, hide and distribute it through numerous shell companies that have no visible products, and yet then have his father claim it didn’t happen and he knows nothing about it. Then turns around and says he is the victim.
A world where Al Gore can make one busted prediction after another and still be listened to. And win a Nobel Prize
A world where Hillary Clinton can make completely unfounded claims about heat deaths and no one calls her on it.
A world where a climate czar, John Kerry, who has also made forecasts on climate that have busted, can say he threw away medals cause he was so disgusted with his country, then show up with them on, visible evidence of his lying and hypocrisy.
A world where people can lie, or to be generous, not allow any challenge to what they are saying, and get away with it.
The common denominator is what I wrote about, Deceit, distortion, and delusion in all they do
And above all, they are so confident they can get away with it that they do it constantly So confident they can deliver to me a perfect graphic I can use, blissfully unaware that a counter to all of it exists, or can be used..
So the WMO has delivered to me the best graphic for linkage possible. And they are counting on people to ignore the obvious link.
Same as what all these people ( and I have just named a few) have gotten away with in so-called “government service” all their lives.
For emphasis. You can’t make it up. I have to put it on again so you can see
Oceans with their input
World Meteorological Organization’s unwitting gift to prove my point
The World Meteorological Organization clearly defines that single weather events are not the same as climate change. There has been no long-term trend in greater numbers of or more severe storms striking this area during the past few decades that would suggest climate change was causing an issue.
Image: The shoreline of El Bosque, showing houses destroyed by the eroding beach. Source: The Guardian/Gustavo Graf
In an October 24 Amnesty International News article, titled “We may be the first people displaced by climate change in Mexico, but we won’t be the last,” Guadalupe Cobos Pacheco claims that the tiny seaside fishing town he lives in, the El Bosque community in Tabasco, Mexico, is being overwhelmed by sea level rise driven by climate change. Data and historical imagery show this to be false. Other factors, such as choice of building location, prevailing ocean waves, and beach erosion are the cause.
Pacheco writes:
Before climate change, our daily routine was to go fishing and sell our produce. Like any community, we celebrated our customs and traditions. We celebrated important dates such as Christmas, New Year or the Day of the Dead. We heard about climate change on television, but we never thought it would destroy our community. We could sleep easy.
Since 2019, our lives have completely changed. Now our lives revolve around climate change. That year, a storm swept away the first row of homes, and rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and northerly winds have continued to destroy our community. Our only option now is to leave.
The most important point that Pacheco fails to recognize in his own writing is that one storm in 2019 is not the same as climate change. The World Meteorological Organization clearly defines that single weather events are not the same as climate change. There has been no long-term trend in greater numbers of or more severe storms striking this area during the past few decades that would suggest climate change was causing an issue.
Rather than climate change, Pacheco should blame simple beach mechanics for what is happening at the El Bosque community in Tabasco.
El Bosque is built on a peninsular sand bar, jutting into the ocean. Sandbars are formed from the combination of erosion and deposition processes, which are driven by wave action. That particular section of beach is steeply sloping into the sea, and it is well known that a steeply sloping shore will cause waves to break closer to shore, causing more erosion than on a gently sloping shore.
The storm in 2019 started the process of beach scouring, making the slope steeper, and accelerating the process.
But since 2019, residents of El Bosque say a series of severe weather fronts, bringing heavy rain and powerful winds, have been eroding the shoreline. As the ocean has encroached, more than 60 homes in the village have been destroyed by the waves.
With a steeper beach slope, additional storms have more impact than they have had in the past. Since 2019, the shoreline has eroded faster. This is illustrated in Figures 1 and 2 below.
Figure 1, from the study cited above, Coastlines for El Bosque beach, Tabasco. The triangle represents the position of the old sampling and the circle represents the recent sampling.
In Figure 1, note that on the south side of the peninsula, in the cove area, there is essentially no beach erosion, or significant growth through deposition, over time. This suggests that the prevailing wave action comes from the north, driven by weather systems.
Figure 2, from Google Earth, shows satellite imagery from February 2023 of the peninsular sand bar that El Bosque is built on. Note that in this image, strong waves are present coming from the northwest, this creates a wave scouring action that rips sand from the beach and deposits it elsewhere, in the direction of the waves. The beach to the far right, as illustrated in Figure 1, is actually growing, as indicated by the black line beach profile.
Figure 2. Google Earth image of the sandbar peninsula which the town of El Bosque is built on. Annotations by A. Watts.
This is not climate change, climate change does not reach out to affect a small section of beach, shrinking one part, and building up another less than one mile away. This is simple and well-known beach mechanics of sand bars. It is established by ocean science that sandbars shift regularly over time.
The article also claims, “Rising sea levels caused by climate change have swept away more than 200 meters of coastline here, destroying more than 50 homes.”
Examining the data for sea level rise in the region, one finds no supporting evidence for that claim. In fact, there is no data available for the last 30 years at all from the two closest tide gauges at Ciudad del Carmen or Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. This is shown in Figure 3 below:
Figure 3: Map showing the two closest tide gauge stations on either side of El Basque, Mexico and the data as plotted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents website, with annotations and compositing by A. Watts
Without such data, it is impossible to honestly claim that sea levels are rising, much less rising at an unusual, global warming accelerated rate.
Looking at the latest available data, however, one can, playing Devil’s advocate, assume that the trends indicated at those two stations has continued rising unchanged since the last readings were available around 1988. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents website has this to say about the data at each station:
Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico: The relative sea level trend is 3.6 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.94 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1956 to 1988 which is equivalent to a change of 1.18 feet in 100 years.
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico: The relative sea level trend is 2.86 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 1.06 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1952 to 1987 which is equivalent to a change of 0.94 feet in 100 years.
The 100 year sea level rise between the two stations averages out to 1.06 feet per century (1.18 + 0.94 /2 ). For the 35 years since the last data available in 1988, that would be 0.37 feet or 4.45 inches. This is near or well below the average sea level rise that the IPCC projects to occur over the 21st century, so unless the rates of rise have increased dramatically, climate change isn’t causing much sea level rise at El Bosque. In addition, the small estimated amount of rise certainly cannot account for the beach erosion and loss that has happened there. It is far below the average daily tidal variation, which can vary as much as 1.77 feet in a single day according to tide tables for Ciudad del Carmen.
Clearly, the claims of climate driven sea level rise are unsupportable. The likely cause of the recent sandbar erosion is the aforementioned wave driven beach erosion, triggered by the 2019 storm which increased the slope of the beach, making it even more susceptible to ocean storms and waves.
Tragically, the homes of El Bosque were built on the edge of the shifting sandbar. The residents were likely unaware of the dangers of building on sands which shift with such ease and passing storms. With the mainstream media blaming climate change for every natural event that can be portrayed as out of the ordinary, it unsurprising Pacheco has mistakenly blamed his village’s plight on climate change. There are several stories in the media recently making the same claim.
The incompetence of the media and NGOs, like Amnesty International News, in doing even the most basic investigation is disturbing and misleading.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
However as one eagle-eyed observer has noted, Jerzu is not a recognised climate station:
WMO UNRECOGNISED STATION: This temperature reported from BBC Weather is NOT from a World Meteorological Organization recognised climate station. There are NO WMO recognised weather stations in Jerzu itself, Sardinia. It is from an unrecognised agricultural station near Jerzu,… https://t.co/HVt0C7uENVpic.twitter.com/pgYl2lkqr3
As with so many other claimed records, the quality of the siting, equipment and recordings is highly questionable, and certainly should not be bandied about as a record until fully validated.
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Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
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