The German DWD Weather Service is asking itself the this question and has no summery prospects until mid-June 2024.
The unsettled, sometimes very wet and predominantly cool weather of the last few weeks will continue in the coming days. But when is an end to this general weather situation in sight and where in Europe is there currently bathing weather with summer temperatures? The general weather situation in Europe has been pretty entrenched for weeks. A constantly regenerating high-altitude trough over western and central Europe has ensured a cool and sometimes very wet weather phase. Over the past few weeks, this has led to precipitation in some areas, some of it heavy, which led to flooding in the south and south-east last week, as well as in the south-west in May.
At the weekend, a weak intermediate high pressure system ensured stable and warm early summer weather, at least in some areas. Yesterday, the summer mark of 25 degrees was reached or just exceeded in some areas, especially in the south and east in the lowlands. The front-runner was Simbach am Inn with 28.4 degrees. But even that will be over again in the coming days. The reason for this is a new extended high-altitude trough, which is gradually spreading from Scandinavia to Central Europe. Another wave of subpolar air will flow into western and central Europe on Tuesday. This will cause temperatures at 850 hPa (around 1.5 kilometers above sea level) to drop below 0 degrees in some places, meaning that highs in large parts of northwestern and central Europe will mostly be below 20 degrees in changeable weather conditions.”
The cold weather also has an impact on cycling. The Tour de Suisse has to be changed because some passes are still not free of snow. Nau.ch:
“The sixth of eight stages of the Tour de Suisse with finish in Blatten-Belalp has to be shortened. The stage that was originally planned as the queen’s stage will start on Friday, June 14, at the Goms Nordic Center in Ulrichen and will not cross any Alpine passes. Originally, the stage should have led from Locarno over the Nufenen Pass, which at 2421 meters above sea level would have been the roof of the tour, into Valais. However, because the heavy snowfall made it impossible to cross, an alternative route via the Gotthard and Furka passes was considered.”
“… At an after-work drinks event I attended, a man fainted and collapsed. We gave him water and walked him to his car, through the city. The baking hot streets were utterly deserted. …”
WA had its hottest summer ever, but climate change and heat-related health problems barely made the news
At an after-work drinks event I attended, a man fainted and collapsed. We gave him water and walked him to his car, through the city. The baking hot streets were utterly deserted.
As the month progressed, there appeared to be a growing disconnection with the way news outlets were generally covering the ongoing natural disaster.
News stories often showed people “beating the heat” by going to the beach. A prominent politician devoted one sentence of their weekly column to the weather: “Yes, it’s summer, and yes, it’s hot.”
Richard Yin, a Perth GP and deputy chair of Doctors for the Environment, said the lack of acknowledgement in the media about the impact of heat and climate change was “vaguely terrifying”.
If someone “faints” after a workplace drinking session, climate change is to blame? I can think of some other possible explanations.
The claim extreme heat is Australia’s biggest killer is not borne out by the evidence. The following is by scientists who claim the ration between summer and winter deaths is closing because of climate change – but there are still more deaths in winter.
Increased ratio of summer to winter deaths due to climate warming in Australia, 1968–2018
The authors have stated they have no conflict of interest.
Abstract
Objective: To determine if global warming has changed the balance of summer and winter deaths in Australia.
Methods: Counts of summer and winter cause-specific deaths of subjects aged 55 and over for the years 1968–2018 were entered into a Poisson time-series regression. Analysis was stratified by states and territories of Australia, by sex, age and cause of death (respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases). The warmest and coldest subsets of seasons were compared.
Results: Warming over 51 years was associated with a long-term increase in the ratio of summer to winter mortality from 0.73 in the summer of 1969 to 0.83 in the summer of 2018. The increase occurred faster in years that were warmer than average.
Conclusions: Mortality in the warmest and coldest times of the year is converging as annual average temperatures rise.
Implications for public health: If climate change continues, deaths in the hottest months will come to dominate the burden of mortality in Australia.Read more:
Is this really what the climate alarm movement has come to? A dubious claim that extreme heat is the biggest killer, panic over someone passing out after an office drinking party where the manager was likely paying for the drinks, and a long whinge about people enjoying themselves at the beach in hot weather, instead of focussing on the climate crisis?
Ah, the 1960s. Even in 1966, before global warming was a thing, The Lovin’ Spoonful was singing about (among other things) the unusual heat of the inner city.
In fact, the heat caused by urban environments was discussed way back in 1833 (190 years ago!) by Luke Howard (The Climate of London) who was the first to document the urban heat island (UHI) effect.
Today, virtually anyone who routinely travels between cities and rural areas has observed the localized warmth that cities produce.
It is important to emphasize that the UHI effect, along with “record warm” temperatures, would exist even if there was no “global warming”. This is because cities have grown substantially in the last 100+ years, replacing the native landscape with high heat capacity surfaces like buildings, pavement, and sources of waste heat. This leads to UHI warmth of up to 10 deg. F or more, mostly at night.
Yet, we are routinely told through media reports that the latest record warmth recorded in some of our cities shows how serious the global warming problem has become. For example, as shown in this graphic from the Miami Herald, the summer of 2023 experienced some record warmth in cities across the South.
Of course, conflating the urban heat island with global warming is a necessary component of such reporting, as the news report dutifully adds,
“Prominent scientific institutions around the globe including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agree that the warming is caused mainly by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, NASA said.”
See how that works? A city has record warmth, so it must be due to global warming caused by burning fossil fuels. To be fair, not all the blame is always placed at the feet of Climate Change. For example, this 2014 article specifically discussed the role of the urban heat island in Phoenix weather.
Now, it is true that the southern U.S. had an unusually hot summer. Even our (UAH) satellite-based temperature product for the lower atmosphere showed this warmth in August:
In my last blog post, I showed our urbanization-adjusted average summer temperatures (based upon NOAA homogenized GHCN surface air temperatures) across all available stations in the Lower 48 states, and the result was that summer of 2023 was the 13th warmest (see Fig. 3 here) since records began (but with very few stations) in 1895.
But what role does climate change have in these records at selected cities? Most of what we hear through the media comes from urban reporting stations, or at least airports serving major urban areas.
The Summer of 2023: Phoenix versus Surrounding Stations
If the record hot summer in Phoenix is due to global warming, then it should show up at weather stations surrounding Phoenix, right? As part of our research project where we are quantifying the average urban heat island effect and its growth over time as a function of population density, I looked at the official NOAA GHCN monthly surface temperature data at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport (red curve in the following graph) versus at all rural stations (0 to 100 persons per sq. km) within 10 to 100 km of Phoenix (blue curve). I also applied a small urbanization adjustment correction at the rural (or nearly-rural) stations based upon their individual histories of population growth.
The result? The summer of 2023 was only the 11th warmest summer on record.
So, we see that the urban heat island effect was the dominant cause of the summer of 2023 being a record warm year in Phoenix. The “vote” from surrounding rural and nearly-rural stations was that it was only the 11th warmest year. As a side note, the difference between the red and blue curves indicate a jump in Phoenix Sky Harbor temperatures of about 0.7 deg. F around 1988. This could be due to a weather station move, but I have not investigated it.
“But”, you might protest, “even the rural stations still show a strong warming trend”. Well, that is partly because I have used only “homogenized” temperature data, which NOAA has already adjusted to some extent leading to all nearby station temperature trends being more or less equal to one another. I’m still trying to determine if I can use the “raw” data to make such comparisons, since there are other data adjustments made in NOAA’s homogenization of the data that I’m not privy to.
Another thing to notice is that media reports will repeat NOAA’s claim that these new high temperature records are based upon data extending back to 1895. In general, this is not true. Most of these station records don’t go back nearly that far. For the Phoenix Sky Harbor location, the data started in 1933. A few of the other “record hot cities” start dates I’ve looked at so far are Miami, FL (started in 1948), Houston, TX (1931), and Mobile, AL (1948).
The bottom line is that there are unsupportable conclusions being drawn about the supposed role of climate change in record high temperatures being reported at some cities. Cities are hotter than their rural surroundings, and increasingly so, with or without climate change.
On a sunny day in mid-May, Bobby Hunt fell asleep by the side of a gas station in Phoenix. Hunt says he was waiting for a friend to pick him up.
“Next thing I know, I wake up in the hospital.”
Hunt was in a burn unit. He doesn’t remember much, just the bright lights.
“What am I doing here?” he recalled asking.
Almost three months later, Hunt stands in the empty chapel of Circle the City, the central Phoenix medical shelter for unhoused people where he’s been recuperating. He lifts his white T-shirt to reveal a lopsided, round scar the size of a medium pizza.
The burn appears to be about an inch deep, and mars the swath of intricate, black-inked tattoos of skulls and faces that once covered his back.
Below the big scar, a bandage covers another wound on his lower back. Hunt pulls the leg of his khaki shorts up to reveal a large, red rectangle where skin from his thigh was removed and grafted on to his back. He’s still in terrible pain.
Temperatures in the city of Phoenix reached at least 110F (43.3C) for 31 days in a row this summer. But even on a 98F (37C) day, like the one when Hunt was injured, sustained contact with the sidewalk can result in third degree burns – and potentially kill a person.
The Guardian seems surprised that roads can get so hot in summer. Even here you would be advised not to walk barefoot on roads when it is hot. And the fact that this injury occurred in May when temperatures reached 98F says all you need to know about this latest pathetic little story. Phoenix temperatures tend to be at that level and a lot higher pretty much all summer:
The highest temperature there this year has been 119F, well below the record of 122 set in 1990.
The daily data profile is also noteworthy, as it shows that temperatures so far this summer have only been exceptionally high for about a two-week period in July, and a handful of days this month:
Of course, if Guardian journalists understood why roads and pavements get hot in summer, they would also appreciate why urban areas get much hotter than rural ones, and that the temperatures they regularly trumpet for cities like Phoenix are not representative.
China’s summer this year has seen both extreme heat and devastating floods.
And the flooding this time around has struck areas where such weather has been unheard of, with scientists – blaming climate change – warning that the worst is yet to come.
“I’ve never seen a flood here in my whole life,” says 38-year-old Zhang Junhua, standing next to a vast patch of rice, now completely useless. “We just didn’t expect it.”
His family and friends are safe, he says, because they were given plenty of warning to get to higher ground, but everyone in his village now has some tough months ahead.
What’s more, the devastation in north-east China’s Heilongjiang Province has had a major impact on food supplies for the whole country.
This month, 40% of the area’s famous Wuchang rice crop has been wiped out, visibly flattened by the volume and speed of the water. Places which should appear lush and green are today brown and dead.
“The fields where we planted our crops were all submerged. We can’t plant again this year,” says another farmer, Zhao Lijuan, as she smiles and tries to be philosophical about the impact on her community.
“The losses are incalculable. We have tens of thousands of acres of rice fields here,” the 56-year-old says, adding: “When I saw the water come here, I cried. It laid waste to everything and I am scared the typhoons will be back.”
At least 81 people have been killed in the recent floods, including some trying to rescue others.
But the economic pain has been much wider, in a country already struggling to recover following three years of strict coronavirus control measures.
And, if the government wants to measure the immediate cost of not addressing climate change urgently, it need look no further than its own statistics.
In a little over a decade, the number of floods being recorded in the country has increased tenfold.
In the summer of 2011, there were six to eight monthly floods listed in China. Last year, more than 130 were recorded in July and 82 in August.
If you think this all sounds like a load of nonsense, you are probably right.
As the BBC themselves go on to admit:
According to Dr Zhao Li from Greenpeace East Asia, the increase in flood numbers can be partially explained by China developing better systems to monitor and record flood data.
Forget about the protestations about how climate change might still be a factor, the BBC is acting fraudulently by quoting those flood statistics, which they know to be false.
And the claim that flooding this time around has struck areas where such weather has been unheard?
Well, the BBC also go on to note at the end of the article (which most people won’t bother to read):
Officials in China tried to ease the impact of recent floods by using a system of dams of waterways to change their direction. The problem is that the water has to go somewhere, and it was Zhuozhou in Hebei Province which took the hit.
These are tough choices but, in the end, it becomes a government decision over who must suffer for the greater good.
In other those “unprecedented floods” were not caused by climate change, but by a deliberate decision to divert the flood waters from elsewhere.
You would of course be entitled to think all of these floods and other extreme weather has affected China’s agriculture in recent years.
Now the data are out, and the alarmist headlines are once again looking ridiculous. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its U.S. Contiguous USCRN Average Temperature Anomaly Data through July 2023, and as shown below, the month was unremarkable and continued a long period without a rising trend.
The measured data shows no supporting upward trends regarding U.S. 2023 average summer temperature anomalies to date. This reality flies in the face of the out-of-control media climate alarmist incompetent and idiotically hyped ‘tipping point’ climate change temperature propaganda this summer.
The University of Alabama’s Dr. Roy Spencer comments that the unusual warmth suggests “something peculiar is going on”.
It’s too early for the developing El Niño in the Pacific to have much effect on the tropospheric temperature record. The Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its ‘unprecedented’ production of extra stratospheric water vapor could be to blame.
But whatever the cause of the anomalous July global warmth, it was not reflected in the average temperature of the United States, which was nothing out of the ordinary and continues to show no recent rise.
It’s summer in the Northern Hemisphere so the heat hucksters are out in force. Alas, there are currently thin pickings in the U.K. – last year’s star of the show – where the summer has turned distinctly chilly. Further north is also very disappointing and largely absent from the public prints. Arctic sea ice continues its steady decade-long recovery, and current levels on the Greenland ice sheet are above the 1981-2010 average. But no matter – African countries surrounding the Sahara and nearby southern European locations can always be guaranteed to raise a scorchio cheer, along with Death Valley in the Arizona desert. Guaranteed climate change fearmongering in action here, every day of the week.
Come rain or shine, flood or drought, the weather is being ruthlessly weaponised to persuade us to embrace a collectivist Net Zero plan. Last week, heavy rain caused some flash flooding in Vermont. USA Today claimed that “dramatic flooding” was rare in Vermont, adding: “Expect more amid climate change.” The BBC reported the event, adding the routine house scare that “climate change makes extreme rainfall more likely”. What is missing in all this propaganda is any proof of the claims and any attempt to put bad weather into an historical perspective.
In a paper looking at the climate variability of the American state’s natural hazards, published in 2002 by the Vermont Historical Society, it was noted:
One of the most pervasive hazards that impinges upon and marks the Vermont landscape is flooding. Rarely does a year elapse without a flooding event of a significant magnitude being reported in at least one of Vermont’s 14 counties or perhaps state-wide, making this the number one hazard across the state.
On July 4th, Matt McGrath of the BBC reported that the world’s average temperature had reached a new daily high of 17°C. McGrath partly attributed the rise to “ongoing emissions of carbon dioxide”, and reported the view that July will be the hottest month in 120,000 years. Quite how anyone can know that is a mystery.
It turns out that the hottest day claim, which provided clickbait for headlines around the world, was the product of a computer model called Climate Reanalyzer, run out of the University of Maine. The operators perhaps felt a pang of guilt over the widespread use of their modelled figure noting, a few days later, that much of the elevated global temperature “can be attributed to weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere that have brought warmer than usual air over portions of the Antarctic”. In other words, long-term climate change, human-caused or natural, had nothing to do with any rise, it was a local meteorological event.
It is important to understand that all these ‘records’ are based on historical data that are incomplete, often inaccurate and are rarely more than 100 years old. Until recently, sea temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were recorded from a bucket thrown from a passing ship. All the major land surface temperature datasets are ravaged by growing urban heat corruption, and recent temperatures have been further warmed on a retrospective basis via ‘adjustments’. Growing questions are being asked about the accuracy of many recordings, with the U.K. Met Office willing to declare ‘records’ from a runway used by Typhoon fighter jets and other sites that the World Meteorological Organisation states come with an error estimate of up to 2°C. Meanwhile, the most accurate record we have of air temperatures is compiled from satellite data by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and this shows less warming since 1979. The results are rarely noted in mainstream media, and last year Google demonetised one of the compilers by banning him from receiving money from its AdSense scheme.
Climate historian Tony Heller has released a short film noting that “fake historical data” and bright red maps are key tools being used to scare people into compliance with an anti-energy agenda. The highest temperature ever recorded on the planet was 58°C in the Libyan desert, and the record stood for 100 years before climate alarmists managed to erase it from the record. Temperatures over 50°C are not unknown in Libya, with 50.2°C recorded in June 1995 at Zuara.
New video : Climate Fakery Part 11
Fake historical statistics and bright red maps are key tools being used to scare people into compliance with an anti-energy agenda.#ClimateScamhttps://t.co/jRoVjLunHK
In the past, Heller notes temperatures over 38°C were recorded in Alaska over 70 years ago. In 1957, the Soviet weather service reported a week of 38°C temperatures north of the Arctic circle. In Phoenix, Arizona, there were 18 consecutive days of 43°C in 1974, at a time, Heller notes, when there was a fear of global cooling. This record may be broken in the near future he continues, but it will not have anything to do with global warming, just as the temperatures in 1974 had nothing to do with global cooling. The U.S. is likely to see highs of 38°C in Texas and the desert southwest, observes Heller, but in 1936, 13 states were over 43°C and 30 passed 38°C. Illinois was over 45°C, and people were reported to be dying from the heat in Detroit at the rate of one every 10 minutes.
The fact is that the percentage of the United States that reaches 38°C sometime during the year has plummeted since the 1930s
The graph above shows that since the mid 1930s, the number of U.S. weather stations recording at least 38°C (100°F) has fallen by half. In addition, it shows the trend sharply decreasing since the turn of the century. People in authority, argues Heller, are pushing for the demise of fossil fuels using fake statistics and blood-red maps. The red fires of hell, he suggests, have always been used to scare the public into conforming.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptics Environment Editor.
Stop Press: Tourists are turning their backs on the Med, giving the above average temperatures – apart from the Brits, according to the Mail.
Summer cool down concept and cooling off idea as a sun character icon holding on to a chunk of snow and ice with icicles as a symbol for managing hot weather summer heat and a refreshing break from a heatwave.
What is summer? It is supposed to get hot. A day with no wind, temp 85. Dew point 70 in DC is below normal in mid-summer but it dang sure feels hot in the midday sun. I am of the impression that the combination of creature comforts and less reliance likely due to changes in the physical fitness levels in the nation have made us more susceptible to swallowing ideas about how bad it is.
Americans are more overweight than underweight than let’s say in the 1950s. Testosterone levels in the 35-year-old male in the greatest generation were twice what they are now. ( dang good thing we had that toxic masculinity in WW2, eh) Society today is such that it would be natural, if one wishes to change society to more complacent and controllable, to convince them things are so bad now there is no way they can get by. Sad to say summer have chimed in with every warning known to man and some that apparently have originated in places that are not of this world. ( it does seem like some of the warnings are overkill of what is intuitive)
Let us take the apparent temperature. Do you know comfort is largely a part of adaptation and tolerance? And it is genetic too. I watched an HS wrestler shovel a foot of snow for over an hour with the temperature at 20 degrees and winds gusting over 20 mph in a sweatshirt and no gloves. 5 minutes out in that I am frozen to death, or think I am. So that wind chill of 10 apparently did not bother him in the least. which explains why he will be wrestling at PSU. In my old days in college, I had a snow shoveling company I was sweating like a pig in a sauna 10 minutes after starting to shovel. I was younger, tougher, higher tolerance ( which wrestling at PSU or being brought up by my dad and mom did) So how is the same scary wind chill or apparent temperature for an 18-year wrestler no big deal when for someone else its a sign to hide?
But my point is we are pushing scare tactics in the weather that stop us from evaluating reality All those Green New Dealers are in air-conditioned offices and cars all day which would not be possible without fossil fuels in the first place, then they come outside and its 90 degrees and they think its the end of the world, Take farming. The family farm is disappearing. But farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and anyone who works outdoors, is likely more tolerant to the so-called extremes of today that were simply looked at as normal 50-60 years ago. But those Green New Dealers in their air-conditioned offices all day walk out in the heat and they are convinced they have to save the world from the hell evil we are creating by simply wishing to advance.
And given the AMS and their pushing of climate change for you to keep your TV job or rise thru the ranks today, you better darn well let people know how bad it is and that I can save you by warning you, I am not talking about tornadoes, severe weather floods and the like, I am talking about what I am seeing with the “hysteria” about how hot it is getting in Texas. Something we warned our clients was going to happen and said due to the configuration of the ridge, the wind aspect may not be enough for that part of their energy grid, and rolling blackouts could occur mid-June into August this year. So it begins. And what maps go up? APPARENT TEMPERATURE. Apparent to who? If you are tough and hydrated it is a hot Texas day, one that long-time Texans know about, If you are not, its a sign of climate change and hell descending on you, Guess what my field stokes more often than not? This is in the face of a pattern that has had 75% of the nation population-weighted with LESS THAN AVERAGE WARMTH THIS month.
It is more of a socio-psychological dilemma than weather. To feel good about yourself, you have to overcome something. So if you are told this is worse than ever, despite having a lifestyle that would blow away anything 50-100 years ago, you believe you are overcoming the odds. And then you have to get everyone to do it with you, so we can all defeat this monster we have created together. And then, the ultimate irony, the nerd class from when I was young of which I was and still am in, the weather and climate geeks, the least likely of the toxic testosterone avengers, are leading the masses out and are the heroes. Heck maybe I am trying to be a hero by being some kind of anti-hero, but the fact is the worse the weather is the better it is for me. So why would I want the weather to be less than what is portrayed?
It comes down to, if not the truth, then the search for it, Not the search for your feelings, but the facts. And I put forward that if you believe that it is worse than ever now, it is because perhaps you have not seen the path we traveled to get to a position where people are so comfortable and self-centered they “feel” it is worse than ever. And there is a whole market and agenda to push that.
Whatever happened to the Good old liberals of my day? John Mellencamp in his “Minutes to Memories” with his line from the old man to the young guy?
“Days turn to minutes and minutes to memories. Life sweeps away the dreams we have, You are young and you are the future. So Suck it up and tough it out and be the best you can.
There is no time better than today in my field to heed those words. And guess what. It is not as tough as it used to be, and its easier to be the best you can, if you don’t believe there is some atmospheric apocalypse waiting for you.
Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting.
He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore.
His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com
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Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
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