A year ago, a secret commando blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Who is behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines?
In the dispute over Russian gas supplies, many believe that the Kremlin is the mastermind after the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. Several intelligence agencies are investigating the case. Now investigators can largely rule out Russian involvement.
In Ukraine itself, it is difficult for the Germans to investigate. The German government has so far shied away from a request for legal assistance to Ukraine, probably because the German investigators would then have to reveal what they know. Officially, the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied that Ukraine is involved in the attack. But Berlin does not trust Kiev.
The Dutch military intelligence service and the CIA had already warned months before the attack of a Ukrainian sabotage squad and exactly the scenario. In Berlin, the warnings had been assessed as irrelevant after the originally suspected time for an attack had passed.
After the attack on the Baltic Sea pipelines, Western politicians had also brought a so-called “false flag” operation by Russia into play as a possible explanation. Moscow could have caused the explosion and deliberately laid the wrong trail in Ukraine, according to the considerations. However, according to the report, there is no evidence of this.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) is confident that there will be an indictment against the saboteurs of the Nord Stream pipeline. “I hope that the Federal Prosecutor General will find enough evidence to indict the perpetrators,” Faeser told the magazine “Spiegel”.
“We have to bring such crimes to justice,” the SPD politician told Der Spiegel on Friday. “This also strengthens citizens’ trust in the rule of law if we succeed in clarifying such complex issues.”
In just the last few weeks, more evidence has come to light suggesting that Ukraine – and not Russia or the U.S. – was behind the Nord Stream sabotage.
We already knew that in the summer of 2022 the CIA warned Germany about a possible Ukrainian attack on the pipelines, following a tip-off from a U.S. ally. We now know that the attack itself “bears striking similarities” to what the U.S. ally (which turns out to be the Netherlands) said Ukraine was planning.
The Dutch intelligence, which was among the materials released in the Discord leaks, was obtained and corroborated by the Washington Post.
It revealed that “six members of Ukraine’s special operations forces using false identities intended to rent a boat and, using a submersible vehicle, dive to the floor of the Baltic Sea then damage or destroy the pipeline and escape undetected”. This of course lines up closely with the story German investigators have pieced together so far.
The intelligence also revealed that the would-be attackers “were not rogue operatives” but reported directly to General Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.
German investigators have identified the Andromeda, a 50ft pleasure boat, as the vessel used to carry out the sabotage – which we already knew had been rented by a Polish company that was allegedly founded by two Ukrainians. As Der Spiegelreported recently, an email sent to the vessel at the time it was rented also leads back to Ukraine.
According to the Wall Street Journal, investigators have now “fully reconstructed” the boat’s “entire two-week long voyage”, establishing that it sailed “around each of the locations where the blasts later took place”. They have also confirmed that traces of explosives found on board match explosive residue found on the pipelines themselves.
One of the explosives used in the sabotage was HMX, which is apparently “well-suited for demolishing underwater infrastructure”. What’s more, the quantity required to blow up the pipelines “would have easily fit on the Andromeda”, according to a European official.
In the latest development, various outlets reported yesterday that the CIA actually told Ukraine not to attack the pipelines, though it is “not clear how the Ukrainians responded”.
Some sceptics insist this is all an elaborate cover-up to disguise the true perpetrators of the sabotage – the U.S. government. I’m not convinced. That theory made a certain amount of sense back when it was being alleged that “pro-Ukraine saboteurs” were responsible. But the latest reports directly implicate Ukraine’s government.
Why would the U.S. want its European allies to believe the country they’ve been arming, training and supporting destroyed a major piece of European infrastructure? ‘To stop them blaming the U.S.,’ is one answer. But if the U.S. is trying to deflect blame from itself, why not devise a cover-up in which, say, Russia was responsible? Or at the very least, stick with “pro-Ukraine saboteurs”? It doesn’t make sense.
Ever since the Nord Stream sabotage took place, I’ve argued that Ukraine is the most likely culprit.
It had a strong motive: eliminating Germany’s incentive to defect from the pro-Ukraine coalition. It would have been much less risky for Ukraine than for either Russia or a NATO country. There’s precedent: Ukraine has carried out numerous sabotage operations during the war. And in the summer of 2022, Germany was actually warned about a possible Ukrainian attack on the pipelines.
Back in March, various Western newspapers reported that “pro-Ukraine saboteurs” may have been responsible. Although there was “no evidence” that Zelensky or his top generals were involved, the saboteurs “might have connections to the Ukrainian Government or its security services”, wrote the New York Times.
In its own reporting, the Times referred to a “suspected private sponsor, a Ukrainian not affiliated with President Zelensky’s government”, and claimed that his name “has been circulating in intelligence circles for months”.
The alleged plot involved “a yacht, elite divers, forged passports and the procurement of shaped explosive charges only available to the gas and oil industry”. The yacht, where it is said investigators found “traces of explosives”, was later identified as the Andromeda – a 50ft pleasure boat.
As to who the “suspect private sponsor” might be, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitungreported that he is a “Ukrainian oligarch” who “used to be active in politics”, and that the sabotage took place on his birthday. All this points to former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, whose birthday is September 26th – the date of the bombing.
In the latest development, the Timesreports that Germany’s Federal Office of Criminal Investigation is “exploring fresh leads in a theory implicating Ukraine”. (The theory is the same as before – the one involving the Andromeda.)
Investigators think the attack “could only have been carried out with help from a state security service”, and they have “uncovered evidence that may point to Ukrainian involvement”. Note that until the reports about “pro-Ukraine saboteurs” appeared, European officials had been insisting that a “state actor” must be responsible.
In addition to the two Ukrainians who are said to have founded the company that rented the Andromeda, German authorities have identified two others who may have been part of the ship’s crew – one of whom is believed to have served in the army.
The main reason to doubt the ‘Andromeda theory’ is that it’s difficult to believe such a small team of people, using only a pleasure boat, would have been able to carry out the operation. It’s a “James Bond” theory, as one commentator put it. On the other hand, U.S. national security advisor Fiona Hill has said that “Ukraine could have found a way of doing this: we’ve seen them be extremely inventive”.
Aside from the possibility that Russia is responsible, something of which German investigators are apparently “unconvinced”, the main rival theory is Seymour Hersch’s – which pins the blame on U.S. President Joe Biden. While his story may yet be corroborated, various inaccuracies and inconsistencies have been identified and I don’t find it nearly as plausible as the one implicating Ukraine.
The latest inaccuracy in Hersch’s reporting concerns his article ‘THE UKRAINE REFUGEE QUESTION’, where he includes Hungary in a list of countries that are “allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin”. This simply isn’t true: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been highly critical of Zelensky and is generally considered Europe’s most Russian-friendly leader.
According to leaked documents seen by the Washington Post, Zelensky has expressed “rage” toward Hungary and even suggested blowing up the Druzhba pipeline which transports oil from Russia. So it sounds like the feeling’s mutual. (Incidentally, the Post’s revelation constitutes further circumstantial evidence for Ukrainian involvement in the Nord Stream sabotage.)
If Hersch can’t get basic details right, it’s hard to trust his more audacious claims about the bombing of Nord Stream. I still don’t buy it.
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Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
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