Climate computer simulations have run hotter than reality since their inception.

From Watts Up With That?

A new paper published at the end of October waxes dramatically over the dreaded consequences of model projections of the dreaded climate change and sea turtle reproduction.

Abstract

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a “middle of the road” scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26–43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from −20 to −191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

1 INTRODUCTION

The world’s climate is changing at an unprecedented rate (Loarie et al., 2009). As a response, species, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments, have started to alter their phenology (e.g., timings of cyclical or seasonal biological events), shift their geographic distribution, and modify their trophic interactions (Dalleau et al., 2012; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Walther et al., 2002). Species’ responses to climate change can occur through at least three contrasting but non-exclusive mechanisms: (1) range shifts, (2) phenotypic plasticity, and (3) microevolution via natural selection (Fuentes et al., 2020; Hulin et al., 2009; Waldvogel et al., 2020).

Range shifts might be observed by sea turtles responding to changes in climate by shifting their range to more climatically suitable areas (Abella Perez et al., 2016; Mainwaring et al., 2017). It is crucial that these areas provide the environment necessary for colonization and are conducive to egg incubation (Fuentes et al., 2020; Pike, 2013). However, it has been indicated that areas with climatically suitable environments might be impacted by other stressors (e.g., sea level rise, coastal development), which might hinder the potential adaptive capacity of sea turtles (Fuentes et al., 2020). Phenotypic plasticity allows individuals to cope with environmental changes and relates to the ability of individuals to respond by modifying their behavior, morphology, or physiology in response to an altered environment (Hughes, 2000; Hulin et al., 2009; Waldvogel et al., 2020). Microevolution refers to adaptation occurring because of genetic change in response to natural selection (Lane et al., 2018). Phenotypic plasticity provides the potential for organisms to respond rapidly and effectively to environmental changes and thereby cope with short-term environmental change (Charmantier et al., 2008; Przybylo et al., 2000; Réale et al., 2003). However, phenotypic plasticity alone may not be sufficient to offset against projected impacts from climate change (Gienapp et al., 2008; Schwanz & Janzen, 2008). Microevolution, on the other hand, is thought essential for the persistence of populations faced with long-term directional changes in the environment. However, the ability of microevolutionary responses to counteract the impacts of climate change is unknown, because rates of climate change could outpace potential responses (Hulin et al., 2009; Morgan et al., 2020; Visser, 2008) although see Tedeschi et al. (2015).

It is unclear whether potential adaptive responses by turtles will be sufficient to counteract projected impacts from climate change (Monsinjon, Lopez-Mendilaharsu, et al., 2019; Moran & Alexander, 2014; Morjan, 2003). For example, sea turtles have persisted through large changes in climate during the millions of years that they have existed, demonstrating a biological capacity to adapt (Maurer et al., 2021; Mitchell & Janzen, 2010; Rage, 1998). Nevertheless, there is growing concern over the potential impacts that projected temperature increases might have on sea turtles (Patrício et al., 2021). Temperature plays a central role in sea turtle embryonic development, hatching success, hatchling sex ratios (Hays et al., 2017; Standora & Spotila, 1985), hatchling morphology, energy stores, and locomotor performance (Booth, 2017). Sea turtle eggs only successfully incubate within a narrow thermal range (25 and ~35°C), with incubation above the thermal threshold resulting in hatchlings with higher morphological abnormalities and lower hatching success (Howard et al., 2014; Miller, 1985). Furthermore, sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, a process by which the incubation temperature determines the sex of hatchlings (Mrosovsky, 1980). The pivotal temperature (PT ~28.9–30.2°C for the species studied here, Figure S1), where a 1:1 sex ratio is produced, is centered within a transitional range of temperatures (~1.6–5°C, Figure S1), that generally produces mixed sex ratios. Values above the PT will produce mainly female hatchlings while values below produce mainly males (Mrosovsky, 1980).

Thus, projected increases in temperature may cause feminization of sea turtle populations and decrease reproductive success (Patrício et al., 2021). Many studies have suggested that sea turtles may adapt to increases in temperature by altering their nesting behavior, through changes in their nesting distribution, and nest-site choice (Kamel & Mrosovsky, 2006; Morjan, 2003), and by shifting nesting to cooler months (Almpanidou et al., 2018; Dalleau et al., 2012; Pike et al., 2006; Weishampel et al., 2004). Earlier nesting has already occurred in some turtle populations as a response to climatic warming (e.g., Pike et al., 2006; Weishampel et al., 2004). However, it is unclear whether phenological and behavioral shifts can sufficiently buffer the effects of rising temperatures (Almpanidou et al., 2018; Laloë & Hays, 2023; Monsinjon, Lopez-Mendilaharsu, et al., 2019). Although two other studies (Almpanidou et al., 2018; Laloë & Hays, 2023) have explored whether earlier shifts in phenology can preserve the present-day thermal niche of sea turtle nesting environment in a changing climate, only one other study (Monsinjon, Lopez-Mendilaharsu, et al., 2019) explores the implications of phenological responses to sea turtle reproductive output (hatching success and primary sex ratio), of which they focused on loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta). Given that different sea turtle species have different spatial–temporal nesting patterns, we expand from this study focused on loggerhead turtles to assess the extent to which phenological shifts by four different species of sea turtles could mitigate increases in temperature at different sea turtle nesting sites globally to maintain the reproductive output of affected populations. Furthermore, to build on previous work, we explore whether nesting populations could benefit from both an earlier and a later phenological shift. To do so, we calculated the shift (backward and forward, respectively) that would be required for incubation temperature, hatching success, and sex ratio to stay similar to current ranges. In doing so we are the first study to date to investigate the implications of a later nesting by sea turtles.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16991

I know that the study is making predictions or projections decades out, but other activist scientists, a caterwauling media, and compliant politicians all tell us, screw the models, we are currently in the throes of a CLIMATE CRISIS already!!!! Everything is suffering!

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And now reality. Let’s check in on how those sea turtles are handling the boiling oceans and super rapidly intensifying super hurricanes.

South Florida beaches in Broward County saw a record number of leatherback sea turtle nests this year.

Leatherback sea turtles laid a record 79 nests along the beaches of Broward County in 2021, almost double the number of nests from the previous record, according to the South Florida SunSentinel. The previous record was 46 nests in 2012.Florida county beaches see record number of sea turtle nests this year

LMC has currently documented 21,020 nests: 215 from leatherbacks, 14,469 from loggerheads, and 6,336 from green turtles. All of these species are of sea turtles are threatened or endangered.

The center’s researchers attribute the boost in numbers to successful conservation efforts over the past few decades.Loggerhead Marinelife Center director of research speaks about record-breaking number of sea turtle nests

Last year, the total number of sea turtle nests was an impressive 18,132, but that number has just been blown out of the water with tons of nesting nights still to go in the 2024 season, according to the vice president of research at Loggerhead Marine Life Center, Dr. Justin Perrault.

“We have officially broken the nest record. As of today, we have 21,666 sea turtle nests,” he said.

….

Believe it or not, there are still three whole months left of nest season, so Perrault is predicting a grand total of 27,000 nests come November.Record broken for most sea turtle nests ever in Palm Beach County

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Biologists were taken by surprise by a record number of leatherback turtle nests found along some South Florida beaches this year.

The 79 nests laid by endangered turtles along beaches in Broward County this year is nearly double the previous record, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported. The previous record was 46 in 2012, and the record low for leatherback nests was 12 in 2017.South Florida beaches see record year for sea turtle nests

Sea turtles in Florida are handling the climate crisis quite well.