Tag Archives: Global Heating

A Note to The Guardian – Opinion Is NOT Science

From ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

A recent article in the newspaper The Guardian reports that some of the ”world’s top climate scientists” believe that disaster is soon to occur due to what they claim will be an additional degree of warming on the planet. This is a false narrative. The earth has experienced similar temperatures in the past without disastrous consequences. In addition, one should note that opinion when it comes to climate science has had a terrible track record.

The opinion piece, titled “World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target,” starts off with gloom and doom in the first couple of paragraphs:

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.

Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts, and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.

First, as Climate Realism has previously discussed, here, for instance, the 1.5°C so-called limit is an arbitrarily made-up threshold. There is no scientific evidence that surpassing the 1.5℃ politically established amount of warming will result in worsening extreme weather events. What’s true of the 1.5℃ threshold is equally true of the 2°C limit, as Roger Pielke Jr., Ph.D. explains in his article, The Two Degree Temperature Target is Arbitrary and Untethered.

In The Guardian article, the opinion of “climate experts” suggests that disasters are afoot, with experts telling the paper that “massive preparations to protect people from the worst of the coming climate disasters were now critical.”

Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely worried about the costs in human lives.”

“I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the U.N.’s Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions might come too late and we cross one or several tipping points.”

What’s ironic, is that both The Guardian and those “climate experts” have missed the fact that in Europe, both the 1.5° and 2°C “limits” have already been surpassed, with no deleterious effects.

Below in Figure 1 is the Berkeley Earth average surface temperature record for Europe since about 1780. Europe is a good location to analyze, because some of the longest continuous temperature records are from Europe. It shows that not just 1.5°C, but 2.0°C of warming has already occurred.

Figure 1. (click to enlarge) Berkeley Earth average European temperature showing a 2.0°C rise since about 1820. Source: http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/europe Annotated by Anthony Watts

Claims that reaching such temperatures supposedly driven by increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere are causing or will cause disasters, such as climate tipping points, have been repeatedly debunked at Climate Realism, not a single one of those predictions has come true.

Also, Cotrim da Cunha’s stated worry that warming will result in more humans dying is belied by the fact that research shows that 10 to 17 time more people die of cold than heat, and that as the Earth has warmed the number of people dying from temperature related illnesses has fallen dramatically. 

Given that track record, it hardly seems likely that some additional warming will result in disasters. According to a 2023 study by the University of California Santa Cruz, Earth has experienced higher CO2 levels and warmer temperature in the past, as seen in Figure 2 below:

Figure 2. Temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over the past 66 million years. Bottom numbers indicate millions of years in the past; right-hand numbers, carbon dioxide in parts per million. Hotter colors indicate distinct periods of higher temperatures; deeper blues, lower ones. The solid zigzagging line charts contemporaneous carbon dioxide levels; shaded area around it reflects uncertainty in the curve. (Adapted from CenCO2PIP, Science 2023)

Earth survived, and history shows that humans are highly adaptable, thus the alarm over missing some arbitrary climate target temperatures we’ve already reached is both unjustified and moot.

What we have here is nothing more than an opinion poll of people whose entire careers are built upon hyping climate catastrophe, whose and reputations will be destroyed if the climate crisis narrative is untrue.

Scientific thinking and practice involves forming testable hypotheses, deciding how to test those hypotheses, doing the tests and analyzing the results to formulate proof and test theory. The claims of climate catastrophes, when they have been tested by experience and time, have proven false. And the future disastrous climate scenarios the experts are forecasting can’t be confirmed outside of the climate models that the self-same experts reference and rely upon to for their opinions. Opinion about science is not science at all but a belief.

This Guardian article is not news, but rather simply gives voice to so-called “experts,” whose past claims about the future are one long train of failed predictions. The Guardian has proven time and again that when it comes to “reporting” on climate change, it and its writers are shameless promoters of the climate crisis narrative which has no basis in evidence or data.

Study: Venomous snakes likely to migrate en masse amid global heating

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Sell your automobile or the snakes will get you?

Venomous snakes likely to migrate en masse amid global heating, says study

Researchers find many countries unprepared for influx of new species and will be vulnerable to bites

Neelima Vallangi Fri 3 May 2024 19.35 AEST

Climate breakdown is likely to lead to the large-scale migration of venomous snake species into new regions and unprepared countries, according to a study.

The researchers forecast that Nepal, Niger, Namibia, China, and Myanmar will gain the most venomous snake species from neighbouring countries under a heating climate.

Low-income countries in south and south-east Asia, as well as parts of Africa, will be highly vulnerable to increased numbers of snake bites, according to the findings published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health.

The study modelled the geographical distribution of 209 venomous snake species that are known to cause medical emergencies in humans to understand where different snake species might find favourable climatic conditions by 2070.

…Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/03/venomous-snakes-migrate-global-heating-study

The abstract of the study;

Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity

Summary

Background

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.

Methods

We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.

Findings

Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.

Interpretation

Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.

Funding

German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.Read more: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00005-6/fulltext

Models all the way down.

In venomous snake filled Australia, we’ve developed a very simple solution to the snake threat: Buy a cat.

Greens complain about house cats decimating the local wildlife, and this complaint is largely true.

But one of the forms of wildlife cats are really keen on killing is venomous snakes. They like the taste. So most of us tolerate the occasional endangered bird being dragged through the cat door, in return for almost total protection from animals which could kill us or our kids.

Did I mention cats are really popular in my part of Australia? My cat got plenty of treats and fuss a few years ago when it saved me from a snake.

The snake unexpectedly fell off the rafters of an outdoor patio area onto my table, landing just behind my laptop.

The snake didn’t hang about, it was much too worried about getting away from the cat. Though to be fair it probably climbed into the rafters in the first place because my cat was stalking it. The snake got away on that occasion, though the snake was badly wounded – the cat clawed and bit it, but the snake managed to slip through a crack in a fence where the cat couldn’t follow.

Of course, encounters between snakes and cats are less common in an urban environment, my snake encounter occurred when I was living on an acreage property. Snakes aren’t the smartest animals, but they know what cats smell like, and usually stay well away from anywhere heavily frequented by their ancient enemy.

I’m not sure how popular house cats are in the nations named in the study, but I bet they will become a lot more popular if a venomous snake threat emerges, whatever the cause.

COP 28: Climate Hysteric Peter Kalmus Has the Sads

From Watts Up With That?

In the latest episode of what could be mistaken for a satirical comedy, Dr. Peter Kalmus, a self-proclaimed climate activist and NASA scientist, has expressed his dismay over the recent COP28 summit. His opinion piece, “COP Out: Wrapping Up a Useless Climate Summit That Should Fool Nobody,” reads like a script from a dystopian drama where the villains are fossil fuels, and the heroes are, well, apparently not the attendees of COP28.

Kalmus paints a picture of COP28 as a grand assembly of the world’s elite, jetting in on their private planes to a petrostate, to discuss the perils of the very industry that fueled their arrival. The irony is so thick here that one could cut it with a knife. The summit, according to Kalmus, was nothing more than a stage for the fossil fuel industry to make “dirty side deals”.

Some wealthy humans flew on private jets to the United Arab Emirates, a petrostate, for a two-week meeting. Many of these humans work for the fossil fuel industry. The petrostate leveraged its host status for dirty side deals to expand fossil fuels. There was a session on sustainable megayacht ownership.

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cop-out-wrapping-up-a-useless-climate-summit-that-should-fool-nobody-opinion/ar-AA1lHi6U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad9c0e089b12489a875e5a576bcb4cf5&ei=24

The appointment of Sultan al-Jaber, a fossil fuel CEO, as the presiding official of a climate summit is akin to putting a fox in charge of the henhouse, suggests Kalmus. His portrayal of al-Jaber’s promises to continue investing in oil and expanding fossil fuels post-summit paints a picture of a mustache-twirling villain, gleefully plotting the world’s demise.

The presiding official was a fossil fuel CEO, Sultan al-Jaber, who, days earlier, had said some anti-science, denialist garbage-words. Two days after the meeting ended, he promised that his oil corporation will continue investing in oil and expanding fossil fuels. OPEC, in a joint statement with the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, congratulated the UAE on the “positive outcome” for the fossil fuel industry.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cop-out-wrapping-up-a-useless-climate-summit-that-should-fool-nobody-opinion/ar-AA1lHi6U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad9c0e089b12489a875e5a576bcb4cf5&ei=24

Kalmus doesn’t hold back in his apocalyptic vision of a world ravaged by global heating, with floods, fires, and broken systems. The fossil fuel industry and industrial animal agriculture are the chief architects of this impending doom. One might expect a superhero to swoop in any moment now to save the day, but alas, this is the real world, and Kalmus seems to believe we’re fresh out of caped crusaders.

We are all in grave danger from global heating, which appears to be accelerating, is irreversible, and is driving all the flooding and heat and fires. It’s caused almost entirely by the fossil fuel industry, with industrial animal agriculture in second place.

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cop-out-wrapping-up-a-useless-climate-summit-that-should-fool-nobody-opinion/ar-AA1lHi6U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad9c0e089b12489a875e5a576bcb4cf5&ei=24

The COP28’s 21-page “global stocktake” is ridiculed as too little, too late. Kalmus is appalled that it took thirty years just to mention fossil fuels in a COP decision text. The stocktake’s call for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems is dismissed as nonbinding, unquantitative, and insincere. It’s as if Kalmus expected a binding global treaty to be signed then and there, magically solving all climate issues.

The wealthy fossil-fuel-industry-influenced humans at COP28 produced 21 pages called the “global stocktake.” The stocktake mentions “fossil fuels” once, on page 4. People who wish to argue that COP28 wasn’t a complete failure have been calling this “historic.” And technically it is, because fossil fuels have never been mentioned in a COP decision text.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cop-out-wrapping-up-a-useless-climate-summit-that-should-fool-nobody-opinion/ar-AA1lHi6U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad9c0e089b12489a875e5a576bcb4cf5&ei=24

The loss and damage pledges from rich nations, amounting to $700 million, are scoffed at as grossly inadequate. Kalmus compares the United States’ pledge of less than $20 million to the budget of an average high school, highlighting the disparity between the scale of the problem and the response.

In Kalmus’s eyes, COP28 was nothing short of a spectacular failure, a charade that serves only to perpetuate the status quo. He calls for a new international summit and fossil fuel treaty system, free from the influence of the fossil fuel industry. His solution? A stronger climate movement and a ban on the fossil fuel industry from negotiations.

We need to start by agreeing that COP28, like other COPs, was a complete failure. Claiming that it was somehow not a failure, clinging to bits of false hope, generates a powerful illusion that business as usual can continue. We’ve been doing this for 30 years now. The possibility of keeping heating to under 1.5 degrees C has been squandered. If we cling to false hope that it’s working, we will keep doing it, year after year, making no progress. This is what the fossil fuel industry wants; this is how we lose a planet.

We then need to establish an international summit and fossil fuel treaty system that isn’t broken under the weight of fossil fuel industry corruption. To do this, we need to ban the fossil fuel industry from the negotiations, and doing this will require a stronger climate movement. Every single one of us can work, in our own way, to make the movement stronger. Be a climate activist: join with other climate activists—we’re not hard to find—and take risks. It’s up to us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cop-out-wrapping-up-a-useless-climate-summit-that-should-fool-nobody-opinion/ar-AA1lHi6U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad9c0e089b12489a875e5a576bcb4cf5&ei=24

Global Heating Will Make Your Beers Taste Worse!

A new brainless pseudo- study of climate change.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

  h/t Ian Magness

.

Do Guardian readers actually believe this nonsense?

Climate breakdown is already changing the taste and quality of beer, scientists have warned.

The quantity and quality of hops, a key ingredient in most beers, is being affected by global heating, according to a study. As a result, beer may become more expensive and manufacturers will have to adapt their brewing methods.

Researchers forecast that hop yields in European growing regions will fall by 4-18% by 2050 if farmers do not adapt to hotter and drier weather, while the content of alpha acids in the hops, which gives beers their distinctive taste and smell, will fall by 20-31%.

“Beer drinkers will definitely see the climate change, either in the price tag or the quality,” said Miroslav Trnka, a scientist at the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences and co-author of the study, published in the journal Nature Communications. “That seems to be inevitable from our data.”

Beer, the third-most popular drink in the world after water and tea, is made by fermenting malted grains like barley with yeast. It is usually flavoured with aromatic hops grown mostly in the middle latitudes that are sensitive to changes in light, heat and water.

In recent years, demand for high-quality hops has been pushed up by a boom in craft beers with stronger flavours. But emissions of planet-heating gases are putting the plant at risk, the study found.

The researchers compared the average annual yield of aroma hops during the periods 1971-1994 and 1995-2018 and found “a significant production decrease” of 0.13-0.27 tons per hectare. Celje, in Slovenia, had the greatest fall in average annual hop yield, at 19.4%.

In Germany, the second-biggest hop producer in the world, average hop yields have fallen 19.1% in Spalt, 13.7% in Hallertau, and 9.5% in Tettnang, the study found.

The taste of beer does not just depend on the hops, but it explains part of the drink’s popularity, said Trnka. “Across the pubs of Europe, the most frequent debate except weather and politics is about the … beer.”

But weather and politics are both changing the taste of beers. World leaders have promised to try to stop the planet heating by more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century, but are pumping out too much greenhouse gas to meet that target.

The study found the alpha acid content of hops, which give beer its distinct aroma, had fallen in all regions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/climate-crisis-will-make-europes-beer-cost-more-and-taste-worse-say-scientists

Can anybody honestly say that beer tastes any different to what it used to? Or worse?

Indeed, the explosion of new craft beers and styles tells the opposite story. Brewers are using their skills to produce better beers, taking advantage of the abundance of quality and varied ingredients from around the world. And they will carry on doing so.

As for the nonsense about falling hop yields, the UN data shows the exact opposite, both in Europe and specifically in Germany:

https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

The best bit though is the Guardian’s claim that global heating will push up prices, because the very last paragraph includes this quote from a German hop farmer :