From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

The forecast calling for an El Niño makes sense in the context of the natural cycle of these events. But we’re in a different world now, with oceans unusually warm nearly everywhere. The previous El Niño should be a wake-up call that the atmosphere’s response is no longer behaving the same way.

How is it that the El Niño never fully showed up in the longest-running measure of these events—the SOI—where winter values were below the threshold? Even in the gold standard for coupled ENSO events, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), it registered only as weak to moderate, yet it was classified as a strong El Niño based on the Niño 3.4 region (or ONI). We should examine that closely to set the stage for the current developing El Niño.

The fact that the SOI did not record a 3-month running average below -8 during the winter—despite the event’s overall intensity—was remarkable. This occurred because of a sudden warming of the waters by nearly 5°C in just two months to the east of Australia, an unprecedented development. This warming was later attributed to increased underwater volcanic activity in the South Pacific, with our old friend Hunga Tonga–Hunga Hualapai likely releasing tremendous amounts of heat into the ocean—though without a major subaerial explosion like its initial eruption. This has been a significant factor in global climate and weather patterns overall and may still be exerting an influence today.

In November of 2023, with the SOI actually in El Niño territory, SST looks like this

The configuration in the tropical Pacific of a warm tongue with cold water around Australia was not unlike the normal, though even here the rest of the oceans had warmed dramatically over the past 35 years from the means

But that configuration is crucial to the MJO. Cold water around Australia blunts the advance of the MJO into the phases that lead to a warm winter, 4,5,6,7

It supports higher pressure around Australia, which leads to a lowering of the SOI ( a measure of the standard deviation of Sea level pressure between Darwin and Tahiti). When pressures are higher to the west, the easterlies are forced to slow, and so there is more convergence in the phase 8/1 areas.

But what occurred was shocking. The water warmed close to 5 °C. This cannot be solar. It cannot be CO2. It had to be a cumulative build of heat due to the ring of fire underwater volcanoes. with a sudden increase in input. And if you do not know it occurring you are helpless to react as a forecaster till too late

Here is the anomaly change in temperature from November to January

notice little change in the El Niño area, but all around Australia

So instead of what looked like a setup for a cold, stormy winter, perhaps like 09-10 with a western NAMER ridge, positives over the pole, and a wonderful negative Western Pacific Oscillation

We get this

The positive further south, a HORRIBLE western Pacific oscillation, and a forecast that is blown out of the water

The reason. Unprecedented warming most likely from Geothermal input.

How important are those factors, by the way?

Look at the last 20 days

Basically, it looked like the model for that winter that got blown out of the water

So let’s look at forecast aspects this year. The hurricane season, the summer, and next winter

Hurricane season:

The only model all the way out to hurricane season with the El Niño is the Canadian

It has a moderate event, as do the other models, and the extreme warmth of water in the Atlantic subtropics. This highly favors what storms there are, to stay out at sea, but even with that, some can get back to land, as in the analog season I have defined below.

The 2023 hurricane season

This is different from 2023. It’s a Modoki El Niño. It’s similar in nature to the more active seasons of 2004,1969.

If we adjust the SST to today’s values, we can see that

The Atlantic configuration, though, is more like 2023, so a blend of the 3 years, 2023,2004,1969  is what I am currently thinking

So the number is 17-21 total storms

8-10 hurricanes

3-5 majors

Landfalling hurricanes 1-3

Major landfalls 1 or 2

ACE Index 140-180

Summer Speculation

The modeling is not liking a hot summer for the US. The warmest of the modeling is the European, which is based on 1993-2016 climo data, but it certainly hints of less than a torrid summer

The Canadian is cooler

Last 10 days of runs of CFSV2 are cool

The 10-year means have looked like this

and wet in the south and east

The Euro for the summer in precipitation is between the US CFSV2, which looks way too wet in the north

and the Canadian which looks way too wet in the gulf.

So the Euro makes most sense to me in the Gulf and Caribbean, especially with an El Niño

But it would be a great summer for agriculture and a reversal of the very dry conditions we have had this winter.

So out of the past 10 years looks 2nd to fourth coolest, with another great growing season rain-wise. Deep South Texas may still be a problem, though.

Nex Winter:

There was a day when weak to moderate El Niños after a La Niña were loved by winter weather lovers. But the last 3 have not panned out, though we did get a great winter month in Jan 2016, and the last time it hit 0 in NYC was in the El Niño of 2016.. But even that winter was warm overall, 23-24 only had January with some cold, and 18-19 was the” La Nina” El Niño winter, similar to 51-52, where it was cold where it was supposed to be warm and warm where it was supposed to be cold.

But there have been some great bounce-back winters also

2002-2003,2009-2010,2014-2015

The only model out that far is the Canadian

with a modokie look. While the water is warm around Australia, it is cooler than the center of the El Niño.  So we may have a better Madden Julian Oscillation signal.   We have a lot of warm water in the NE Pacific, which is a cold signal. It has some cold water off New England, though not as cold as this year was

So, for now, the outlook for a threat of a cold winter is acceptable for much of the northern US. I would suspect more cold into the Southeast though

It shows the threat of blocking over the top and the Alaska ridge, so the gut call is for a colder than normal winter next year

And with it, fun, fun, fun with winter storms.