From Watts Up With That?

From Legal Insurrection

The Midwest is so cold that even the “Global Warming” jokes froze over.

Posted by Leslie Eastman

Last November, we examined a controversial scientific report asserting that a vital Atlantic current could falter within decades, an event they claim could trigger a new Ice Age.

This winter, Lake Erie is experiencing one of its iciest in decades, with ice coverage reported above 95% and the possibility of reaching a rare 100% freeze for the first time since 1996.

As of Feb. 3, 2026, Lake Erie is 94% frozen over, a figure that far exceeds the average ice peak of 65-70%, according to the National Weather Service Cleveland. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory shows that the lake also reached near-100% coverage in 2025 (95.8%), 2018 (95.1%), 2015 (98.1%), 2014 (96.1%) and 2011 (95.8%).

Over the past five years especially, peak ice coverage has swung dramatically, ranging from a high of 94% this winter to just 11% in 2023.

Meteorologists attribute this year’s coverage to the prolonged stretch of extreme cold and this year’s record low temperatures.

According to Alexa Maines, a meteorologist at NWS Cleveland, January held one of the longest cold stretches ever recorded, with eight consecutive days below 20 degrees Fahrenheit from Jan. 24-31. Only two years — 1899 and 1961 — have experienced longer streaks, each lasting nine days.

Check out the massive crack that developed in Lake Erie’s ice sheet. This was driven by strong winds. Crack is just under 100 miles long. pic.twitter.com/l7d5wwTndI

— Max Claypool (@MadMaxClaypool) February 9, 2026

Several factors are contributing to this development, including the lake’s shallowness and a “La Niña” weather pattern.

While recent cold snaps accelerated the freeze, Arnold said Lake Erie icing over this time of year is not unusual.

“It is very shallow compared to the other lakes so that’s why it does end up freezing, or at least the majority of it, over the course of the winter season,” Arnold said. “I wouldn’t call it abnormal for what we’re seeing currently, other than just it peaked a little bit earlier than the historical average.”

Typically, Lake Erie reaches peak ice coverage during mid-to-late February.

The colder conditions are being driven by a mix of factors, including the return of La Niña, a climate pattern that can shift the jet stream and bring colder, stormier weather to the region.

Lake Erie is nearing full ice coverage, something that hasn’t happened since 1996.

In modern records, the lake has only reached 100% ice coverage a few times. Most recently in 1996, and before that in 1979 and 1978, making a full freeze extremely rare, even for the shallowest… pic.twitter.com/0uKdTFPLQT

— I’m From Cleveland (@ImFromCle) February 8, 2026

The other Great Lakes of Michigan aren’t quite as icy. However, they are a bit above average for ice coverage at this time of year.

Lake Superior’s surface was 50% frozen over as of Feb. 9, about a 10 percentage point increase from Sunday, Feb. 8, and the highest percentage of ice cover for the season. The shoreline from Sault Ste Marie to Duluth, Minnesota, and north to Thunder Bay is covered in ice.

On Sunday, Feb. 8, ice on the Great Lakes totaled 54.29%, according to the latest charts by the U.S. National Ice Center. Ice cover dipped slightly to 53.01% coverage on Monday, Feb. 9.

Lake Erie remains nearly completely frozen over — about 95% coverage. Lake St. Clair Lake, which is included in the Great Lakes ice data, located between the St. Clair River and the Detroit River systems, is completely frozen over, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, a National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration program.

Lake Huron is nearly three-quarters iced over at 66.64%, down from last week when the total was 77.49%.

Ice is more than 2 feet thick in many places, including along Lake Superior shorelines, Lake Huron’s northern shores, the inner Saginaw Bay, parts of northern Lake Michigan, nearly all of Lake Ontario, and the western portion of Lake Erie, according to U.S. National Ice Center’s thickness map.

After weeks of bone-chilling cold and headlines about record ice, it’s hard not to wonder if that “New Ice Age” theory is inching a little too close for comfort. For now, winter seems determined to overstay its welcome…making even the most skeptical among us start rooting for a little global warming and a more active Sun to hurry things along.