From The Climate Realism

By Anthony Watts

Several media outlets including National Public Radio (NPR) and Politico recently published stories lamenting “warnings” from climate scientists about the current state of global temperature. 

Politico published “Global warming reaches 1.4C after third-hottest year on record,” by Zia Weise, while NPR posted “Scientists call another near-record hot year a ‘warning shot’ from a shifting climate.” 

Both of these articles claim that the planet has effectively reached 1.4°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, with temperatures on the Earth accelerating along an unavoidable path toward breaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, which will result in escalating risks and looming “tipping points.”

While the data does demonstrate this spike in temperature, the framing of both articles is highly misleading, leading to a false conclusion not supported by other temperature datasets.

The Politico article states that “average global temperatures are now around 1.4C higher than during the pre-industrial era,” and warns that “passing 1.5C risks triggering so-called tipping points,” citing Copernicus Climate Change Service data and some comments from scientists suggesting that overshoot is now inevitable. It treats the 1.4°C figure as both climatically decisive and globally unprecedented.

The NPR article goes even further saying,

Rising global temperatures intensify heat waves and other extreme weather, endangering people and causing billions of dollars in damage. The weather monitoring teams warn that the 2025 temperature increase is a dangerous sign of worsening storms, heat, floods and fires.

Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead of the Copernicus service, said the overwhelming culprit is clear: the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

“Climate change is happening. It’s here. It’s impacting everyone all around the world and it’s our fault,” Burgess told The Associated Press.”

What these outlets fail to tell readers is that Europe, with the longest and densest instrumental temperature records in the world, has already significantly exceeded 1.4°C of warming without experiencing the cascade of irreversible impacts long predicted at or near that threshold. See Figure 1 below.

Long before recent headlines, European temperature series showed regional warming above global averages, yet society, infrastructure, agriculture, and public health have all continued to improve.

The notion that 1.4°C or even brief excursions above 1.5°C represent a physical cliff is not supported by observational evidence. As Climate at a Glance explains in “Tipping Point: 1.5 Degrees Celsius Warming,” the 1.5°C number was a politically selected policy target, not a scientifically established threshold beyond which the climate system abruptly destabilizes.

In fact, there is no evidence or data indicating any dangerous impacts from exceeding 1.5℃ or even 2.0℃ of warming above pre-industrial levels. Global average temperatures have been higher in the past during periods when human civilization flourished.

The article also glosses over a major short-term driver of the recent temperature spike: the January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption, which injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor directly into the stratosphere.

Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas, and multiple studies have noted that this injection temporarily increased Earth’s radiative forcing, contributing to unusually warm global temperatures in 2023–2025. 

Climate Realism has documented this effect and the media’s failure to account for it in coverage collected under its reporting on the Hunga Tonga eruption. As the excess stratospheric water vapor gradually dissipates, its warming influence is expected to decline, undermining claims that recent warming represents a new, permanent baseline driven solely by CO₂.

This is highly evident in Figure 2 below, with the accurate UAH satellite record showing the plunge clearly falling from a peak in early 2024, to end the year 2025 at just 0.3°C.

Politico/NPR’s heavy reliance on Copernicus data also deserves scrutiny. Copernicus’ flagship ERA5 temperature product is not a simple thermometer-based record. It is a reanalysis, combining sparse and uneven observations with climate models to infill vast regions of the globe, especially oceans and polar areas. 

Climate Realism has repeatedly pointed out that reanalysis datasets are model-heavy reconstructions, not direct measurements, and can amplify warming signals depending on model assumptions, a problem discussed across articles indexed at Climate Realism’s coverage of Copernicus and reanalysis datasets.

Treating such outputs as precise, definitive indicators of long-term climate thresholds gives readers a false impression of precision and certainty.

The article further implies that each additional tenth of a degree inevitably brings more danger, yet it offers little observational evidence to support that claim.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), while often invoked rhetorically, is far more cautious in its actual findings, assigning low confidence to many asserted global trends in extremes and emphasizing regional variability and uncertainty.

Long-term outcomes that matter most to people tell a different story. Climate at a Glance shows in “Deaths from Extreme Weather” that climate-related mortality has declined dramatically over the past century, even as temperatures have risen. That reality is difficult to reconcile with claims that the world is now entering an unprecedented danger zone.

What Politico/NPR ultimately present is a narrative built on short-term averages, model-influenced datasets, and policy-driven thresholds, while ignoring historical context, natural variability, and known transient factors such as volcanic water vapor.

Briefly touching or approaching 1.4°C or even 1.5°C does not validate years of dire predictions, especially when those predictions have repeatedly failed to materialize in regions that have already experienced comparable warming.

By portraying a model-reconstructed temperature figure as proof that the world is on the brink of irreversible climate danger, both Politico and NPR are grossly misleading their readers by flatly misrepresenting the evidence about the true state of the climate based upon real-world data.

Europe has already passed the threshold portrayed by NPR and Politico as tipping points for disaster and yet no catastrophic consequences have resulted. The recent spike in warming has identifiable short-term contributors and is now fading.

The Copernicus temperature reanalysis are fictions of computer models, not direct measurements of temperature. With regards to the recent spike in temperature and “tipping points,” the mainstream media’s climate doom narrative is long on rhetoric, and short on proof – unsurprisingly, since hard data and historical evidence refutes claims of disaster.