From No Trick Zone

By Kenneth Richard

Northeastern China was at least 5°C (and up to 9°C) warmer than today and droughts (and floods) were far more extreme when CO2 levels were a “safe” 265 ppm.

In a new study, scientists have determined that northeastern China’s droughts were far more frequent and intense during the Little Ice Age (LIA) than in the 1950-2021 era of supposedly “alarming” global warming. During the LIA, which the study clarifies as spanning from 1568 to 1850, there were 59 extreme dry events (droughts) in this region, whereas from 1850 to 2021, there were only 8.

The authors further assert the frequency of extreme dry events have long been associated with cold periods in paleoclimate reconstructions, whereas extreme wet events (floods) are linked to warm periods.

“Our results demonstrate that Northeast Asia was relatively dry during cold periods and comparatively wet during warm periods. … For example, Northeast Asia experienced a wet MWP [Medieval Warm Period], which was the latest warm period.”

Interestingly, the relative humidity of northeast China during the last 40 years was more similar to the levels during the cold LIA than during the 1850 to 1950 period, when there were frequent extreme wet events and almost no extreme dry events.

In sum, the “mild drought from the 1950s to the present day does not exceed natural variability” when considering the context of the past 454 years.

“…long-term hydroclimate records indicate that both the frequency and intensity of recent drought episodes fall well within the range of natural variability observed during the LIA.”

Several other studies lend support to the conclusion that a warmer climate is a wetter climate. A paleoclimate reconstruction study utilizing the known limiting temperature for rice agriculture suggests not only that summer temperatures were 5-7°C warmer than present (>26°C vs. 20-21°C today) during the Early Holocene, but “summer rainfall was about 30% higher than modern between about 10,000 and 6,000 cal yr BP” (Dodson et al., 2021).

“The current mean July temperatures are about 20–21°C, however, these are estimated to be above 26°C between 8,500 and 4,200 cal yr BP.”

A study published last year (Guo et al., 2024) indicates today’s Loess Plateau mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is 9.86°C, with a mean annual precipitation of 531 mm. From ~2,700 years ago until about 300 years ago the MAAT was 17.02°C (>7°C warmer) and yearly precipitation averaged 903 mm.

The modern era of “alarming” global warming is actually 5-7°C and up to 7-9°C colder in northeastern China (Zheng et al., 2018) than it was during the much warmer Early Holocene, when CO2 was a “safe” 265 ppm.

“…mean annual air temperatures [MAAT] in NE China during the early Holocene were 5-7°C higher than today.”

“MAAT records from the Chinese Loess Plateau also suggested temperature maxima 7-9°C higher than modern during the early Holocene”

Northern China was also much warmer than today throughout much of the last 10,000 years. Using the known growth temperature limit for Ceratopteris as evidence, scientists have determined the mean January temperature in northern China was “7.7°C higher than today” throughout the Mid Holocene (Zhang et al., 2022).

In sum, there is nothing even remotely unusual about the modern temperatures or precipitation in northeastern Asia that would suggest humans are responsible for warming the climate or intensifying rainfall.