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Two Hot Spots Slow Arctic Ice Recovery November 2025

A research vessel navigating through a vast expanse of Arctic sea ice under clear blue skies.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

Two weather forecast maps showing GPH and temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere. The left map illustrates the 1-5 day forecast, while the right shows the 11-15 day forecast.
Figure 12. (a) Predicted 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and temperature anomalies (°C; shading) across the Northern Hemisphere averaged for 25 Nov to 29 Nov 2025. (b) Same as (a) except forecasted averaged from 05 Dec to 09 Dec 2025. The forecasts are from the 00Z 24 November 2025 GFS model ensemble.

The polar vortex is pronounced this year, resulting in warmer temperature over the Arctic ocean, and slowing the normal sea ice recovery.  Dr. Judah Cohen at AER Arctic Oscillation blog provides information like the chart above.

After a pattern of solidly growing sea ice extent in October, a slowdown occurred in November, coincidental with the warm spots shown above.  The graph below shows 2025 compared to the 19 year average (2006 to 2024 inclusive), to SII (Sea Ice Index) and some notable years.

Line graph displaying November Arctic ice extents in million square kilometers, comparing 2025, 2024, 2020, 2007, and 19-year averages.

According to MASIE. the average November adds ~2.5M km2 of sea ice extent, which is matched also by 2007.  2024 started below average, but gained steadily to close the gap.  2025 started at the same level, but the refreezing slowed down, ending November in deficit by 1.1M km2.  SII shows even lower ice extents (the last two days not yet reported.)

A cartoon depicting a polar bear next to an out-of-order ice maker, expressing concern about ice levels while a person in winter attire holds a sign stating 'The Earth has a fever.'

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins, suggesting two places where ice recovery is lagging.

Region2025334Day 334 Ave.2025-Ave.20073342025-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere978403710880420-109638311009948-1225911
 (1) Beaufort_Sea107107010696231447105887212198
 (2) Chukchi_Sea87908279120787875687829191253
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea10871371083943319410820155122
 (4) Laptev_Sea89784589782421897613232
 (5) Kara_Sea565299792107-226808826319-261020
 (6) Barents_Sea28050242740-214690216525-188474
 (7) Greenland_Sea55041353968710726618844-68431
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence412284664437-252153708497-296212
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago85493185343115008502494682
 (10) Hudson_Bay188797543322-354525751382-562585
 (11) Central_Arctic30376373193296-1556593183072.72-145436
 (12) Bering_Sea145331138776655572644.6272687
 (13) Baltic_Sea42264452-22504226
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk5828861277-2989530525236

Overall ice extent was 1.1M km2 below average or 10%.  About half the deficit comes from the European Atlantic basins, Kara and Barents seas.  The other half is mostly from N. America’s Hudson and Baffin bays. Ice in these regions operate on the LIFO principle, last in and first out.

Map of the Arctic region showing various seas and countries including the United States, Canada, Greenland, and Russia.

At this point in the year, Arctic ice has grown back to 65% of last March maximum with 2.5 months to catch up.   AER  suggests that things may shift again in December:

Map showing temperature anomalies from November 24 to December 9, 2025, with warmer temperatures indicated in red and cooler temperatures in blue across North America and parts of Europe and Asia.
Figure 9. Forecasted surface temperature anomalies (°C; shading) from 05 Dec to 09 Dec 2025. The forecasts are from the 00Z 24 Nov 2025 GFS ensemble.
Map showing the GEFS 11-15 Day Forecast of Snow Water Equivalent (SNOD) change from November 24 to December 9, 2025, with regions highlighted in blue indicating snowfall increase and red indicating decrease.
Figure 10. Forecasted snowfall (mm/day; shading) from 05 Dec to 09 Dec 2025. The forecasts are from the 00Z 24 Nov 2025 GFS ensemble.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

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