From KlimaNachrichten

By Fritz Vahrenholt

Even though the global temperature increased by 0.14 degrees Celsius in September compared to August, the cooling trend remains intact. The American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sees a cool LA NINA approaching in the Pacific Ocean this winter, which will also lead to a decline in global temperatures.

The security of supply of electricity in Germany will no longer be guaranteed in the future

With every new wind farm, with every new solar plant, the security of supply becomes more fragile, as long as reliable, controllable power plants continue to be shut down. The Federal Network Agency expects that all hard coal and lignite-fired power plants will be taken off the grid by 2031.

Then, in times of calm – after all, a third of the annual hours – and a lack of solar radiation in winter, the supply of electricity in Germany is no longer guaranteed. Since the federal government is tirelessly adhering to the unchecked expansion of renewable energies and the financial burden on coal-fired power plants due to rising CO2 prices, a collapse of security of supply in Germany by 2030 is foreseeable.

This is because coal-fired power plant operators will no longer be able to operate their plants economically with an expected CO2 price of 120 €/t CO2. (Security of Supply Report, p. 20).

Even the Federal Network Agency, led by the Green Party member Klaus Müller, states in its security of supply report: “Security of supply in Germany is guaranteed if additional controllable capacities from 22,400 MW (target scenario) to 35,500 MW (delayed energy transition) are built by 2035”. As early as 2030, there will be a shortage of 17,000 to 21,000 MW. That is 40 gas-fired power plants by 2030 and a total of 70 gas-fired power plants by 2035.

These gas-fired power plants can never be built in the next 5 years.

There are essentially three manufacturers of gas turbines worldwide: Siemens Energy (24% market share), GE Vernova (25%) and Mitsubishi (22%), which serve over 70% of the market. These manufacturers are fully booked until 2030. The necessary German 70 gas-fired power plants are therefore not yet included in the planning of the gas turbine manufacturers (see source Bloomberg below).

There are two main reasons for this explosive development. On the one hand, 50 gas-fired power plants will be built in the USA by 2028 alone to reliably serve the massive demand for the new data centers to be built.

On the other hand, there is a growing need for gas-fired power plants in developing countries to satisfy their hunger for energy. Vietnam alone wants to build 22 gas-fired power plants with 22,000 MW by 2030.

The prices for gas turbines have now tripled. At best, Germany could divert gas turbines from developing countries with even higher prices.

This then means that Vietnam, Indonesia or Pakistan will resort to coal.

Nothing is gained for total emissions if Germany replaces its coal-fired power plants with gas-fired power plants. But who expects a realistic, well-thought-out energy policy in Germany?

While other nations cover their economic growth with gas-fired power plants, the German government only wants to secure the wrong path of the energy transition with extremely high costs. To finance this, the Merz government wants to fall back on the proposal of former Federal Minister Habeck and levy a special levy on electricity of up to 2 €ct/kWh. For a 2-person household, this is 80 € per year, for the manufacturing industry this levy is another disadvantage in global competition.

The Federal Network Agency is planning another push to destroy German industry

In its recently published security of supply report, the Federal Network Agency has already indicated that it will continue to pursue the old Habeck plan, according to which industry will become a stopgap for the failed energy policy by urging it to produce when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.

The energy-intensive industry thought that this absurd plan had been shelved with the departure of the Greens from the federal cabinet. But the Green string-pullers in the higher federal authorities, here Klaus Müller as head of the Federal Network Agency, are setting the direction.

In the summary of the report (p.7), it is stated that security of supply can only be achieved if electricity demand is made more flexible.

He threatens: “A lack of flexibility can further increase the need for additional controllable capacities such as power plants to ensure security of supply.”

Müller and the Federal Network Agency are working unabated under the AgNES project (Consultation Procedure for the Determination of General Grid Charges) to punish the 560 companies in Germany that produce at full capacity around the clock, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, if they take electricity evenly from the grid and favour it if they design their production according to wind and weather.

These companies in the chemical, metal, paper, glass and food industries have so far received a so-called baseload discount because of their uniform utilisation of the network. This rebate of a total of €1.42 billion, which is now to be abolished, is of existential importance for the basic materials industry.

This is especially true if, as is foreseeable, grid costs will rise massively due to the grid expansion for the energy transition: by €7ct/kWh for industry and €20 (!) €ct/kWh for private households. These figures were recently calculated by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne. This would destroy the remaining industry and cash in on private households with an electricity price increase of more than 50%.

Copper or glass production, but also data centers, cannot be operated in stop-and-go operation.

Around a third of the electricity in the metalworking industry is consumed for the operation of environmental protection systems alone, i.e. the exhaust gas purification and wastewater plants.

Should the electrostatic precipitators be switched off when the sun is not shining?

The Federal Network Agency has now recognized the weakness of its absurd planning and is now coming up with the idea that industrial companies could install batteries to make the fluctuating current more even.

So: because politicians have allowed reliable power plants to be destroyed and solar and wind power plants, which are exempt from any grid financing costs, only supply unreliable electricity, does an industrial company have to invest hundreds of millions of euros in batteries in order to build its own reliable power supply?

As the head of Kali- und Salz aptly said in an interview with the FAZ: “On the capital market, we are asked from time to time whether we are mad because we produce in Germany”. The madness is called German energy policy, which is carried out to the bitter end by Robert Habeck’s green paladins.

The Federal Network Agency is a subordinate authority of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. How long does Economics Minister Katharina Reiche want to look at how Mr. Müller can place further coffin nails to destroy German industry?

How long can the Chancellor look the other way when German industry is sacrificed on the green altar of the energy transition under his chancellorship?

10 years of the Paris Agreement – the consumption of coal, oil and gas is rising unchecked

worldwide Just in time for the climate conference in Brazil, the Stockholm Environment Institute draws a sobering balance: Outside Germany and Europe, hardly any country is keeping the promises in the Paris Agreement.

Of the 195 signatory states, only 15 had reported on the set date of 10 February 2025.

After a grace period in September, just 70 of the states did.

The interest of nations in climate policy no longer seems to be particularly high.

The truth that is frightening for the climate alarmists is that most countries reported a further increase in the use of coal, oil and gas. By 2030, the reports show a 30% increase in global coal use, a 25% increase in oil and a 40% increase in gas compared to 2015.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hoped to reduce global CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010, but now they are rising further (see chart with data from the Stockholm Institute).

The CO2 figures do not yet take into account the withdrawal of the USA from the Paris Climate Agreement.

India will emit 25% more CO2 this decade, as 70% of its electricity comes from coal. China will also continue to grow until 2030. The new 5-year plan still has hundreds of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline.

Two comments should be made on the graphic.

1. I have added the German emissions to the chart of the Stockholm Institute.
2. The IPCC’s 1.5 degree curve is based on climate models that erroneously assume that 100% of the warming of the last 150 years is due to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. Over the last 20 years, the greenhouse effect of CO2 has caused at most 20% of the warming, 80% of which is due to increasing direct sunlight due to the decline in clouds. In this respect, the IPCC curves should be viewed with the greatest scepticism.
   According to the plans of the 195 nations, the world will consume 30% more oil and 60% more gas in 2050 than today and only 25% less coal than in 2020 (see chart below from the Stockholm Institute).
   German energy policy will not change this. Only the prosperity of the citizens in Germany will change.

Sincerely,

Fritz Vahrenholt

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