From KlimaNachrichten

By KlimaNachrichten Editor

We recently reported on the Extreme Weather Congress and the thesis put forward there that a warming of 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels can be achieved by 2050.

This news reached the IPCC author Zeke Hausfather as far away as the USA, who tried to describe this forecast as extremely unlikely on X. We reported.

Now it’s time for the next round. The FR about an appeal by the German Meteorological Society (DMG) and the German Physical Society (DPG), which advise on the basis of their own shaky forecast to give up parts of the low-lying areas on the coasts of the North Sea and Baltic Sea.

The two organisations, which together represent around 55,000 scientists, are calling on politicians to act. Among the ten measures demanded is a very drastic-sounding proposal: Germany should “discuss the withdrawal from lower-lying coastal regions on the North Sea and Baltic Sea.”

Again for the record, the two organizers publish a thesis that stands on very thin legs because it uses models that are already demonstrably wrong today, bluntly extrapolate it for 2050 and then seriously advise giving up landscapes.

It’s like a car driver who drives the wrong way into a one-way street and then turns back into the next one-way street against the direction of travel.

Thematically, an article from Die Zeit about the Arctic fits in with this.

According to scientific findings, the effects of global warming on Antarctica are more drastic than previously assumed. In a newly published article in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers warn that this could lead to a faster rise in sea levels than previously thought. According to the study, similar effects to those in the Arctic are increasingly being observed in the Antarctic.

“For a long time, Antarctica was considered more stable than the Arctic. But the situation has changed,” said Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). “The sea ice is disappearing. Temperatures are rising here as well. The ice streams accelerate, and the meltwater penetrates the crevasses of the glaciers, which slide faster into the ocean,” said the researcher. This is alarming, he said, because the ice masses in the south have dramatic potential in terms of rising sea levels in the north.

However, the article mixes commentary/review character with the characteristic style of “new findings”, exaggerates the 3-metre number without a time horizon, and does not provide any orientation to probabilities/IPCC ranges for 2100.
For readers, this can give the impression of a short-term, multi-metre acceleration – but this is not what the specialist literature says.

The ZEIT text is based on a commentary in Nature Geoscience (“The Greenlandification of Antarctica“) – not a new primary data paper, but a classification that processes in Antarctica are increasingly similar to those in Greenland (warmer water, ice flow acceleration, instabilities). This is technically relevant, but methodologically something different from new measurements/model runs.