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October Arctic Ice Grows After Pope’s Blessing

A serene Arctic landscape at sunset, featuring glacial ice and open water amidst a snowy surface.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

Pope standing beside a large ice sculpture during an event, with a backdrop of a glacier landscape.

Last Wednesday Pope Leo spoke before a slowly melting chunk of glacial ice in Vatican City in his first address on climate change.  The pontiff addressed a crowd of roughly 1,000 attendees and called on people all over the world to demand action on climate from their governments. This post presents evidence the Arctic is already heeding his call, growing by leaps and bounds. /sarc

Line graph depicting Arctic ice extents over time with data for various years, including averages and predictions for 2025.

The graph above shows Sept./Oct. daily ice extents for 2025 compared to 19 year averages, and some years of note. Day 260 has been the lowest daily ice extent on average for the last 19 years. Note how in just the last five days, Arctic ice extent has grown by half a wadham or ~0.5M km2!

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino, which is now receding, is documented in a post Tropics UAH Temps Cooler August 2025.

Graph showing UAHv6 global TLT air temperature anomalies (land and ocean) from 1995 to 2025, with blue points representing global anomalies, an orange line indicating the mean anomaly, and a pink line representing CO2 levels in ppm.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer-term perspective is informative:

Graph depicting post-glacial sea level rise over thousands of years, highlighting natural and man-made influences on sea level change, with various geographic locations marked.

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 260 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table. The has grown to 5.64M km2 from 5.14 and the overall surplus to average is 447k km2, (9 %). The 2025 ice extent exceeds 2007 by a full wadham.

Region2025278Day 278 ave.2025-Ave.20072782025-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere5643927519664044728645608361083091
 (1) Beaufort_Sea781758582635199123590267191490
 (2) Chukchi_Sea47427723276524151225934448343
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea558888329424229465311558577
 (4) Laptev_Sea29990420886591039305220-5316
 (5) Kara_Sea102645918-4489222717-21691
 (6) Barents_Sea017669-176693580-3580
 (7) Greenland_Sea175128271377-96248404376-229248
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence819976337418623721629835
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago355462410626-551643496875775
 (10) Hudson_Bay11722333-11611936-764
 (11) Central_Arctic29127473030507-1177602783370129376
An illustrated map of the Arctic region showing various sea basins and features, with labels for the Canada Basin, Greenland Basin, and surrounding seas.
A cartoon depicting a polar bear looking at an out-of-order ice machine labeled 'Arctic Ice,' while a person bundled up in winter clothing holds a sign that reads 'THE EARTH has a FEVER!'

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

A detailed illustrated globe of Earth, showcasing geographical features, oceans, and climate zones. Insets in the corners display polar regions and relevant climate data.
A cartoon depicting a pope, dressed in traditional papal robes and holding a cross, discussing scientists' beliefs in anthropogenic global warming, while a scientist in a lab coat stands beside him commenting on the belief in no God.

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