For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. The Sydney Morning Herald has the story.

Breaking news: it is not.

The consensus was that consumption of oil, natural gas and coal would peak before the end of this decade.

There was debate about the speed of the subsequent decline, but the conclusion was the same: the end of the fossil-fuel era was within reach. But that tenet, key to achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050, wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.

The annual report being prepared by International Energy Agency, which represents the views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative – decades more of robust fossil fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years – isn’t just possible but probable. That means more carbon dioxide emissions that exacerbate the climate crisis.

It would be easy to blame the pro-fossil fuel Trump administration for the shift, but that would be a mistake: it precedes its arrival.

The idea that a peak in fossil fuel demand was approaching got significant traction in large part thanks to the IEA, whose annual World Energy Outlook tries to imagine the future via a series of scenarios. While the exercise is quite useful, it doesn’t come remotely close to making forecasts.

They are based on assumptions about economic development, population growth, political will, technological developments and prices. While not a crystal ball, the scenarios do offer important insights.

For now, the world isn’t performing an ‘energy transition’ but an ‘energy addition,’ where renewables top up oil, gas and coal.

The IEA long published a main scenario based around the policies of the day – called, unsurprisingly, “Current Policy Scenario” (CPS). The model had significant shortcomings: historically, it undercounted solar and wind power. Thus, in 2020, the IEA discontinued it, in part due to pressure from European nations and green campaigners.

Read the full story here.