The North Sea has a great future, Kemi – but it won’t be oil and gas

A smiling woman in a blue jacket stands in front of an offshore oil rig against a clear sky.

Tory talk of a new golden age for fossil fuels is just a tactical stunt to navigate the culture war

If the Conservative Party must sacrifice a climate pawn to appease the Zeitgeist and maintain electoral viability, going for broke on North Sea oil and gas is the least important one to give up.

Kemi Badenoch’s plan to extract every last hydrocarbon from UK waters would not raise this country’s long-term output of oil and gas by more than homeopathic amounts. And even if it did, it would not move the needle on UK energy prices. The Telegraph has the story.

Oil is a fungible commodity priced off the global market, and the gas price would continue to track the international cost of liquefied natural gas – unless we cut off our European interconnectors, tore up our EU trade deal and retreated into energy autarky.

It would make no difference to the UK’s internal CO2 emissions, which are determined by the legacy structure of our 20th century energy system and by how quickly Britons switch to more efficient electrotech in their own interest.

More drilling would lower global greenhouse gases in aggregate. The North Sea Transition Authority says the embedded carbon of imported LNG is four times higher than for pipeline gas from well-regulated drilling in UK waters.

Newly available satellite data shows that methane leakage from shale fracking in Texas is twice as high as other global gas fields. A study by Cornell University concluded the overall greenhouse emissions of American LNG exports are 33pc higher than burning coal.

So yes, you can make a case of sorts that the “green” option is to drill locally.

Furthermore, the status quo of importing large volumes of gas from the US is bleeding our balance of payments, and is strategically unsafe. Donald Trump is just as likely to use energy dependency for coercion as Vladimir Putin.

Unfortunately for British fossil fuel nostalgics, the best UK zones of the North Sea are heavily depleted and new deep-sea fields are barely competitive at global market prices.

New technology may help. The latest 3D seismic imaging has pin-pointed some 450 overlooked pockets – “pay intervals” – far below the surface. Norway’s Aker BP says it can cut inspection and maintenance costs by 70pc using long-distance drones. It is becoming possible to manage offshore drilling remotely from on land.

But a much larger and fundamental threat hangs over the viability of the North Sea.

Read the full story here.


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