From Climate Scepticism

By Mark Hodgson

A few days in August 2025

Ed Miliband keeps telling us that the UK is so important that it needs to lead the world towards net zero (apparently, he believes we’re so important that the rest of the world will follow us over that cliff, despite all the evidence to the contrary). He also tells us that more renewable energy equates to greater energy security and to lower prices. In Programming the Public I noted that one of the co-presenters of BBC Radio 4’s Rare Earth, Helen Czerski, enthusiastically told the audience earlier this year that “there was this brilliant moment [my emphasis] last week where…87% of our electricity in the UK was coming at that moment from renewables.”

Strange, then, how the statistics over the last few days – warm and still summer, remember, so a time of low demand and optimum conditions for renewables – tell a very different story.

This morning at 7.30am gas was supplying 26.8% of the UK’s electricity. Solar came in with 6.8% and wind 21.9%. Nuclear generated 12% and biomass 5.9%. Significantly, the interconnectors were supplying a net 25.2% and the price was £99.24 per MWh. Forty minutes later renewables were doing a bit better, gas was being ramped down, yet the interconnectors’ contribution had increased to a net 28.2%.

I don’t wish to “do a BBC” and quote one favourable set of data while ignoring others that don’t suit the narrative. So, I checked in with the electricity generation data again late this morning – a morning when things should be about as good as they get for renewables: demand low, sun bright and high in the sky, wind picking up as the forecast low pressure moves in from the Atlantic. Sure enough, gas was down to 7.7% of the electricity mix, while solar was up to 37.4% and wind was supplying 22.2% of the UK’s electricity needs. Nuclear was providing 10% and biomass was at 6%, but the interconnectors were still supplying a net 17.7%. So much for energy security. The price was £78.56, a marked improvement from earlier in the day, but still not particularly cheap. Expecting gas-fired generators to ramp up and down according to the vagaries of the wind and solar offering doesn’t help in this regard, of course.

Some more electricity supply statistics follow in respect of the last few days:

At 8.03 pm yesterday gas was supplying 38.1% of the UK’s electricity, while wind was supplying 8.8% and (as night approached) solar was supplying a measly 0.3%. Nuclear was supplying 13.5% and biomass (subsidised as “green”, even though emitting more greenhouse gases than coal) was supplying 13.1%. A net 23.4% was being supplied via the interconnectors. Half an hour later and solar was generating no electricity at all, while the price was £98.88 per MWh.

Yesterday at 9.01am gas was supplying 30.5%; solar 7.5%; wind 5.7%; nuclear 13.4%; biomass 12.5%; and we were dependent on the interconnectors for a net 29%.

On Friday 22^nd August at 8.32am, gas was supplying 39.5% of the UK’s electricity, while solar contributed nothing and wind just 7.6%. Nuclear supplied 11.7% and biomass 12.9%, while yet again we were heavily dependent on the interconnectors, to the extent of a net 26% of our electricity needs.

My thanks to contributors at the Scotland Against Spin Facebook page for updating the figures and supplying screenshots as evidence of this energy policy shambles. Those screenshots seem to be taken from the excellent iamkate website. It supplies details of the price of electricity both in the moment and historically. From this source I note that the historic average price of UK electricity is £68.47 per MWh, but that over the past year it has been £82.95 per MWh and over the past week it has been £83.38. As we increase the proportion of renewable capacity (with all the consequent back-up and constraints costs) the performance of renewables seems to deteriorate:

Renewable electricity generation dropped 4.9 percentage points to 46.3 per cent of total generation in the first quarter of 2025, as near record low wind speeds for the quarter led to a 13 per cent drop in wind generation.

However, the price keeps going up. For those who understand these things, that shouldn’t come as a surprise – Jit has provided a useful analysis here. It’s also worth noting that averages can distort reality. The price of electricity seems to be highest around breakfast time and in the evening, i.e. when demand is highest and most electricity is being used, and therefore most of the electricity used by the system is more costly than the average. Not surprising, really, given the laws of supply and demand, but it’s worth noting that solar generates least when it’s most needed – in winter; early in the morning; and in the evening.

Expensive electricity is also devastating what’s left of UK manufacturing. As a result, we seem to import more and more of our every day needs of manufactured products. As massive solar farms take over more and more prime agricultural land, no doubt we’ll also become more reliant on food imports. And while Mr Miliband stands out against any new licences for North Sea oil and gas or fracking, Britain becomes – according to the government’s own statistics – more dependent on imports of oil and gas.

Against this depressing backdrop, we await the AR7 results in respect of the contracts for difference regime later this week. We already know that the government has committed to provide “price certainty” (also known as subsidies) under AR7 for 20 years rather than the previous 15 year contracts. If they are to achieve the necessary buy-in from renewables companies to stand any chance at all of “decarbonising” the grid by 2030, I suspect the prices on offer will have to keep rising, possibly substantially. Mr Miliband seems to have given up on his promise of a £300 per annum reduction in UK households’ electricity bills – not surprisingly, really, since on his watch they are going upremorselessly, not coming down. Instead he now talks vaguely about guaranteeing lower bills “in the long-term”. How longer subsidy periods and higher subsidies can bring this about is beyond me. He also falls back on the claim that he is delivering energy security, yet we seem to be importing ever larger proportions of our electricity through the interconnectors (while rarely exporting it). This is another claim that seems to fly in the face of reality.

Let’s see what happens on Wednesday, when I understand the AR7 results will be announced. Watch this space. In the meantime, the UK is indeed a nation of great import – just not in the sense that Mr Miliband would have us believe.