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Arctic Ice Returns to Mean Mid-August 2025

A close-up of a polar bear standing on an ice floe, surrounded by a landscape of ice and a clear blue sky.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

After a sub-par March maximum, by end of May 2025 Arctic ice closed the gap with the 19-year average. Then in June the gap reopened and in July the melting pace matched the average, about four days in advance of average. Now mid-August MASIE shows the Arctic ice extent matching the 19-year average.

Line graph depicting Arctic ice extents for July and August over multiple years, comparing 2025, 2024, 2020, 2007, and 19-year averages.

During this period the average year loses ~2.4M km2 of ice extent.   MASIE on day 197 was 287k km2 down, and the gap increased to 460k km2 by July 27 (day 208). In August 2025 the melt rate slowed, erasing the deficit to average the last 3 days. Note 2007 and 2024 were ~200k km2 below average mid-August.  Meanwhile SII v.4 is showing much lower ice extents than previously, ranging from -200k km2 to -550k km2 below MASIE extents.

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below. (Bering and Okhotsk seas are excluded since both are now virtually open water.)

Region2025227Day 2272025-Ave.20202272025-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere58819985894299-123015162062719936
 (1) Beaufort_Sea93242270612822629483885493568
 (2) Chukchi_Sea52750443845789047410757116747
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea62218456312059064276845345339
 (4) Laptev_Sea252320243841847924033228287
 (5) Kara_Sea1094794167-8322022002-11055
 (6) Barents_Sea022056-220563285-3285
 (7) Greenland_Sea115125223328-108202265814-150688
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence7540756928184791272062688
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago392776404096-1132036645326323
 (10) Hudson_Bay2538165298-3991753142-27761
 (11) Central_Arctic29270073075808-1488012887486.4839520

The table shows large surpluses in Eurasian basins Beaufort, Chukchi and E. Siberian, offset by deficits in Central Arctic, Kara and Greenland seas. Hudson Bay is mostly open water at this time of year. 2025 exceeds the ice extents in 2020 by 720k km2.

Map of the Arctic region highlighting various seas and basins including Canada Basin, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Greenland Sea.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher  temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post SH Drives UAH Temps Cooler July 2025.

Line graph showing UAHv6 Global TLT Air Temperatures (land and ocean) with temperature anomalies in Celsius over time, alongside a CO2 ppm Mauna Loa trend.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer-term perspective is informative:

Graph illustrating post-glacial sea level rise over thousands of years, highlighting natural and man-made influences with labeled data points from various locations.

Postscript Re. SII v.4

Update: Strange Sea Ice Data July End 2025
A satirical image featuring a man with a surprised expression in front of a glacier, with speech bubbles discussing predictions about Arctic ice disappearance.

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