From KlimaNachrichten

By Frank Bosse

What weather and climate prophecies were there at the beginning of summer?

A hot summer was predicted as early as May 2025, we reported.

The Frankfurter Rundschau printed a weather column on 13.7.25 by Dominick Jung and spoke of a “threatening huge heat dome” for the rest of the summer in Central Europe.
In Focus, Jan Schenk made a prediction as early as 10.6.2025:

“Especially in July and August, we can expect extreme heat and drought in Germany.” 

At the end of July, a sobering interim balance of the “Spiegel“:

“It feels like autumn” 

It’s not so easy with the weather! Jörg Kachelmann also explained this to the “Bild” readers in this column.
The constant exaggerations and misclassifications are:

“Symbols of the educational problem in our country.”

“Wild” predictions have a tradition in this country. Do you remember last summer? At that time, the criminal biologist Mark Benecke received a lot of attention when he proclaimed the “hellish summer of the millennium”. Höllensommer is a neologism of Benecke, this category does not exist in meteorology, but Benecke is not a meteorologist either.
However, this did not prevent the media from taking his forecast at face value and also using the word Höllensommer.
We reported on it and how it ended, of course without “hell”.

And what do we learn from this? At the end of June 2025, the same Mark Benecke lectured again on climate and weather in front of an auditorium and also showed such maps of a weather model:

His text goes along the lines of: This heat is the new “climate normal”.
No: it’s not normal, it’s weather, that’s changing!
The model of “Tropical Tidbits“, which he also used before, at the end of July:

All of a sudden, the temperatures are distributed in a completely different way, Germany is now too cool, France is already “very normal”! This is weather, or more precisely, atmospheric dynamics!

Since the first days of July, we have had a pronounced westerly drift in Central Europe, which keeps shoveling new low-pressure areas from the Atlantic to us. And why is that? On the pronounced jet stream.
This is the strong wind band at an altitude of 8-12 km, which is driven by the difference in temperatures in the tropics/subtropics and the Arctic at this altitude.
It is not tending to weaken, as other meteorologists like Karsten Schwanke (we reported) wanted to tell us, because the temperature difference on the ground is decreasing, on the contrary, it is becoming stronger. This is what the European jet currently looks like:

That’s where the problem lies: In the summer of 2025, we see a very active jet stream, the weather is rather unstable and humid.
In such weather conditions, there is a “tendency to preservation” over many weeks, the term “dormice” is not entirely wrong: At the end of June, beginning of July, the course is set for the summer until about mid-August. In 2025: Again, and again “Atlantic broth”!
As a result, a summer is rather unstable and cool and rainy, a very warm day can also happen, just not the “climatically educationally longed for” heat waves. As of the end of July 2025, summer is just about in the top 10 warmest summers. If the weather holds up like this in August, then this position could also wobble.
We have already seen other summers without a strong westerly drift, then it will be more stable and warmer and drier. WEATHER!
With the best will in the world, you can’t predict that before the end of June! Axel Bojanowski therefore rightly writes in Die Welt:

“Weather forecasts for more than ten days in advance are kokolores.” 

Whoever tries: He deceives the astonished audience. And it clicks so well. Unfortunately, many meteorologists, criminal biologists and other pseudo-experts are among them. Because it always looks good in the climate context: summer heat in this country is such a beautiful symbol! And wrong.

What comes to the mind of the inclined reader about people who proclaim the wrong symbol for “a good cause” year after year? The road to hell is paved with good intentions! The diagnosis of the polymath Sascha Lobo is probably totally wrong when he states in the “Spiegel“:

“For example, the proportion of those who have the climate crisis for an acute, man-made problem is currently decreasing slightly in this country.” 

It is much more oversaturation with nonsense and false alarms than “sinister fossil powers” that he only suspects:

“Disinformation and delaying tactics in the service of fossil business models” 

  
Rather, people are constantly frightened anew and at some point, it doesn’t work anymore, the arc is overstretched, the “summer horror library” fails. Let’s hope for the summer of 2025, so that the jug that has so beautifully gone to the water again and again and has always been “Koko lores”, scaremongering instead of science, will now break!