From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

The UK is now officially committed to cutting emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035.

According to the Telegraph:

Ed Miliband has promised Britain will slash its climate emissions by more than 60pc by 2035 in a move that risks direct conflict with Rachel Reeves’s airport expansion plans.

The Energy Secretary has told the United Nations that the UK will cut its emissions, including from aviation, from 393m tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023 to 155m tonnes in 2035 – a 61pc reduction.

The 2023 figure excludes emissions from international aviation. However, Mr Miliband made clear that the UK aviation industry must now join with other sectors in making sharp cuts in emissions.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/miliband-vows-halve-uk-emissions-060000697.html

The target, which is now officially part of the UK’s Paris Agreement NDC, is formally a cut of 81% from 1990 levels. These are the current emission statistics:

So what would a cut like this entail?

DESNZ updated its Emissions Projections a month ago, based on what they call the Reference Case. This takes account of any policies that, as of June 2024, have either been implemented or those that are planned where the level of funding has been agreed and the policy design is near final. They project a cut in all GHG emissions, incl shipping/aviation, from 431 MtCO2 in 2023 to 349 MTCO2 in 2035.

In other words, the new target is less than half those projections for 2035.

Most of the savings already projected are centred around electricity generation and transport – 39 and 41 MtCO2 respectively. These reflect the previous government’s 2035 Clean Power targets, (rather than Labour’s 2030 ones) and the various ZEV mandates already in force.

This raises the question of where an additional saving of 194 MtCO2 can come from. The chart below shows how the existing projection of 349 MtCO2 is made up:

There is little room for more savings in the power sector (Energy Supply), given that there will still be a need for gas back up. The projections already assume a doubling of renewable electricity generation.

Neither is there any more scope for transport savings, which the ZEV Mandate is already maximising.

Given the pathetically low number of heat pump installations – 60,000 last year – only an immediate ban on gas boiler sales would make a dent in residential emissions, currently 54 MtCO2 and projected to actually rise by 2035.

So where else can savings be made?

Neither industry or agriculture has the money to invest in energy transition, even if it wanted to or could do. Only shutdown of industry and farming would make any substantial cuts in emissions.

Gummer has already come and said that sustainable fuel will make little difference to aviation The Government recently announced a Sustainable Fuel Mandate obliging airlines to use 2pc SAF in 2025 rising to 22pc by 2040, but this will do little more than offset increased air travel.

The other sectors are to small to make any real difference.

The Government has committed the UK to this new target, without having the faintest idea of how to achieve it.