Essay by Eric Worrall
Still waiting for the promised climate disaster.
Australia is already 1.5 degrees hotter
By Bianca Hall
October 31, 2024 — 12.01amAustralia’s average temperatures have risen by 1.5 degrees for the first time since records began, and the world is on track to overshoot the Paris Accord’s aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.
That’s the latest sobering assessment offered by scientists and meteorologists from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, who have mapped Australia’s changing climate for 14 years.
Their latest biennial State of the Climate report, released on Thursday, shows average temperatures continue to rise steadily, while the average number of extreme bushfire days have risen by as many as 25 days a year in parts of the country.
Two years ago, Australia’s temperatures had risen by an average 1.47 degrees since records began in 1910. This year, average temperatures in Australia have risen by 1.5 degrees, while global averaged temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees since “reliable” records began in 1850.
“Beginning” the records in 1910 conveniently misses what may have been the worst heatwave ever in recorded Australian history, the Federation Drought of 1895 – 1903. But despite claiming temperature records before 1910 are too unreliable to include in official records, government climate scientists are confident that more recent droughts are hotter.
435 people died in an 1896 heatwave — but scientists say the extreme heat events of today are still hotter
By Sophie Meixner and Daniel Nancarrow
Sat 21 Dec 2019In the late 19th century, Australia was struck by a heatwave so intense that 435 people were killed and hundreds more were sent fleeing for their lives.
Key points:
- Bourke, NSW, is recorded as hitting 48.9C three times in 1896, with a maximum temperature of 38C for over three weeks straight
- But climate scientists say the methods used to record temperature in 1896 were flawed and heatwaves today are hotter
- They say the high death toll in 1896 was due to the community being more vulnerable to heat events
The 1895-1896 heatwave during the Federation Drought holds the record as Australia’s deadliest heatwave, closely followed by 2009, which recorded at least 432 heat-related deaths.
The town of Bourke lost at least 40 people — 1.6 per cent of its population — during the 1896 event, while Sydney authorities reported hospitals at breaking point and pedestrians collapsing in the streets.
Newspaper reports describe temperatures in Bourke reaching 48.9 degrees Celsius on three occasions, and the maximum temperature remaining above 38C for 24 consecutive days.
As Australia endures a series of intense and record-breaking heatwaves this summer, the 1896 event is sometimes viewed as evidence that Australia has always experienced extraordinary heat, and that the effects of climate change are overblown.
But climate scientists say that is an oversimplification, and the heatwaves we experience today are significantly hotter than those in the past.
…
A Stevenson screen was not installed in Bourke until August 1908, meaning temperature readings from before that could be inflated by as much as 2C.
…Read more:
The implication of the article above, that modern temperature recording is rigorous compared to the old days, ignores a lot of problems with modern temperature records. Australian climate scientist Jennifer Morohasy has fought a long running campaign to force the Aussie Bureau of Meteorology to admit they are less than perfect.
Whatever the truth about past heatwaves compared to the present, there are indications Australians are getting fed up with climate fear mongering. The greens suffered a major setback in the recent Queensland State Election.
The breaching of a 1.5C climate disaster limit which nobody notices is unlikely to add to the faltering credibility of climate doomsday pronouncements.
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