From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

The graph above shows Mid July to Mid August daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents during this period decline 2.4M km2 down to 5.8M Km2 by day 229.  2024 tracked somewhat lower than the 18-year average in late July, then in August drew near to average before slipping into deficit the last 5 days. In the end, 2024 is presently close to 2023 and 2007, ~200k km2 below the 18 year MASIE average.

Remarkably, SII is showing much larger deficits to average than MASIE does. This period began with SII having a gap of 400k km2 less ice extent than MASIE, then increased that deficit as high as 700k km2, before reporting a gap of 537k km2 on day 229, a difference of half a Wadham. The effect will be for SII to report much lower monthly averages for ice extents during July and August, prior to the annual minimum occurring in September.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH June 2024: Oceans Lead Cool Down.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 229 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table.

Region	2024229	Day 229 Ave	2024-Ave.	2007229	2024-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5623262	5828731	-205469	5673531	-50270
(1) Beaufort_Sea	591190	698788	-107598	767181	-175991
(2) Chukchi_Sea	554701	425156	129544	253092	301609
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	641562	535416	106146	154536	487026
(4) Laptev_Sea	268971	240911	28059	284910	-15939
(5) Kara_Sea	14414	96702	-82288	201203	-186789
(6) Barents_Sea	0	21833	-21833	17229	-17229
(7) Greenland_Sea	120478	216573	-96095	310070	-189591
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	46366	53298	-6932	75105	-28739
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	319281	399712	-80431	382407	-63126
(10) Hudson_Bay	33319	58874	-25555	89354	-56034
(11) Central_Arctic	3031923	3080445	-48523	3137188.82	-105266

The overall deficit to average is 205k km2, (3.5%).  The major deficits are in  Beaufort, Kara, Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Archipelago), partly offset by surpluses in Chukchi and East Siberian.

For more on the differences between MASIE and SII see this post:

Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.