From Watts Up With That?

Opinion by Kip Hansen

In a recent essay, Hot Facts about Heat, I said:

“I have been communicating with the Climate Indicators team at EPA about this:  they up-dated the Heat-Related, but not the Cold-Related, Deaths page.  And yes, golly, it does suspiciously look like they have managed to change down-trending data into up-trending data. Not jumping to conclusions yet.  I’ll let readers know when I have sorted it out with EPA.”

I wrote a pleasant inquiry to the Climate Indicators Team at the EPA: (excerpt):

“I am a Science Research Journalist and appreciate your reply.  However, …we are counting on your team to keep these indicators up to date for all of us — the Cold Deaths data is now eight years out of date, or, being charitable, six years allowing for the two-year lag at CDC.   

If you are familiar with the data on the two pages, Heat and Cold deaths, you will realize that the official statement made on the Heat Deaths page is in error.  It states “Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States” — which your data on the Heat and Cold Deaths directly refutes.  Cold is shown as have a death rate per million at 5.5 to 6 (even back in 2016) while even the updated Heat Deaths does not even reach 5 per million.   

Given this, it appears that EPA is intentionally or negligently obfuscating the data to support a false claim.   

I would appreciate a more thorough answer before I go to press.”

[ The Climate Indicators pages under discussion are Heat-related Deaths and Cold-related Deaths ]

Despite this being near-enough to the long 4^th of July weekend (U.S. Independence Day), I received the following answer:

“Your inquiry was shared with me. Please see our response below, on background.

Yesterday, EPA released its updated Fifth Edition of its Climate Change Indicators report. As you saw, numerous indicators have been updated on EPA’s website in anticipation of this release. EPA prioritized updating those indicators featured in the report, but we remain committed to keeping all our indicators updated. We plan on updating Cold-Related Deaths in our next set of rolling updates on the web.  

The statement that heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States is based on an analysis conducted by the National Weather Service. EPA provides this information in the “Background” section as context for the discussion of heat. EPA does not use its indicator data as a basis for that contextualizing statement. We will further clarify this on EPA’s website. We recommend that you follow up with the National Weather Service (NWS) if you have additional questions about their data or finding.

Thank you again for your interest in EPA’s climate change indicators.

 Respectfully,  Shayla R. Powell  —  Office of Media Relations and Risk Communications  —  Office of Public Affairs

[ The 5^th Edition of EPA’s Climate Change Indicators report , just released, is available as a free .pdf download here.  I will look at that in detail another time. ]

It turns out that, just like the main stream media and all of the Climate Crisis Propaganda outlets, EPA uses the “analysis conducted by the National Weather Service”.  EPA has its own data collected from the CDC (via records of actual death certificates) but doesn’t use it in “contextualizing” the statement that “Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States”. 

Let me be a little clearer on that:  EPA has its own data on Heat and Cold Related Deaths – these two statistics are official “Climate Indicators”.  The official Climate Indicators maintained by the EPA, with annual rates for deaths classified as “cold-related” by medical professionals in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, show that COLD is the leading weather related killer, with Cold-related  Death Rate exceeding that of the Heat-related Death rate.

But they defer to the [known to be wonky]  National Weather Service little graphic of “Weather Fatalities” [pretending that it is an “analysis” of some sort – when it isn’t even a serious count of any kind.]  And when challenged on this point, their response is:  “Take it up with the NWS!”

EPA does promise that because “EPA does not use its indicator data as a basis for that contextualizing statement. We will further clarify this on EPA’s website.”  I will be holding my breath to see the updated Cold-related Deaths data and what the clarification will say.

So, where does the National Weather Service [NWS] get the data for their “analysis”?  It is possible to find out, but “It ain’t easy”!

The Storm Events Database!

“Storm Data is an official publication of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which documents the occurrence of storms and other significant weather phenomena having sufficient intensity to cause loss of life, injuries, significant property damage, and/or disruption to commerce.”

This is not an easy topic…but the simple fact is that Cold-related Deaths will not be counted unless they have been entered into the Storm Events Database by a “Storm Data preparer”.

“Some information appearing in Storm Data may be provided by or gathered from sources outside the National Weather Service (NWS), such as the media, law enforcement and/or other government agencies, emergency managers, private companies, individuals, etc. An effort is made to use the best available information, but because of time and resource constraints, information from these sources may be unverified by the NWS. Accordingly, the NWS does not guarantee the accuracy or validity of the information.”

The NWS does not directly collect deaths data, but only peripherally —  from “the media, law enforcement and/or other government agencies, emergency managers, private companies, individuals, etc.”   This means that the NWS Weather Fatalities is a catch-as-catch-can compilation of reports about possible deaths that are recorded in a database about NWS recognized “storms or other significant weather phenomena”. 

A happens-every-winter well-below freezing night in which a family freezes to death in their car after breaking down in a remote area will not be in the database and not in NWS Weather Fatalities.  A senior citizen who quietly dies of hypothermia in her un- or under-heated apartment will not be in the database.  A homeless person dying on the streets of Chicago, the windy city, is not counted.  After all, it is expected to be cold in the winter and being cold is not a “weather event”.  However, declared Heat Waves are weather events are entered in the data base, and reports in the media or from other authorities (hospitals etc) are search out and recorded.

In short,  the NWS Weather Fatalities statistic is a non-scientific gathering of data only “intended for internal NWS statistical review to assist NWS in its primary mission of issuing forecasts and warnings for hazardous weather events.”

You can dig into this yourself at National Weather Service Instruction (NWSI) 10-1605 (.pdf).

Bottom Line:

EPA  promulgates unscientific, unreliable information from another federal agency, NWS, despite the fact that it directly contradicts their own data [Climate Indicators], in a go-along-to-get-along, “it forwards the agenda” manner.

The Climatist talking point “Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States” is FALSE – and this fact is well documented in the peer reviewed climate and health literature.  

EPA says it will clarify this point on the Climate Indicator – Heat-related Deaths web page….soon, maybe.

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Author’s Comment:

And so it goes. The U.S. Federal agencies intended to supply citizens and policy-makers with carefully analyzed scientific data don’t do so – at least on this topic at EPA and NOAA’s NWS.  It is embarrassing.  Their excuses are embarrassing. 

I’ll let you know if they actually keep their promise and sort it out – personally, I doubt it.  If they update the Heat/Cold Deaths data they will have to publicly reject NWS’s Weather Fatalities data.

We’ll see….

Thanks for reading.

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