From Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See update at end]

Well, for my usual unfathomable reasons and motives, I decided to take a look at individual model runs from the Computer Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).

And again, for no particular reason, I took a look at the three NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model runs prepared for the CMIP6 all-forcing simulation of the recent past. These are all available at the marvelous KNMI website. And here’s what those three runs look like.

Umm … err … seriously? Three runs of the same climate model using the same forcings and starting conditions and inputs are that far apart when trying to hindcast the past? I mean, not even trying to forecast the future, just trying to hindcast the past?

And the climate establishment wants us to believe that these are anything more than a pathetic joke?

But wait, as they say on TV … there’s more!

Here is the actual Berkeley Earth historical record, compared to the three model runs.

Not much else to say about that … except that anyone depending on these climate models to tell us what’s going to happen in the future should know that they can’t even tell us what happened in the past …

[Update]: As Rud Istvan pointed out in the comments, Berkeley Earth is not either the only or necessarily the best historical record. I’ve added HadCRUT5, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, and the UAH MSU lower tropical temperature records.

This highlights another problem with the field of climate science. Not only do the models differ as to the historical temperature record … there’s also no agreement between observational reconstructions.

If I ran the zoo, the first thing I’d do is get the scientists together and at least get an agreed-upon historical record … [Update End]

My best to all, take a walk, enjoy your lives,

w.

Yeah, you’ve heard it before: When you comment please quote the exact words you are referring to. And if you want to prove me wrong, you might want to read this first.