By Jim Steele

The Arctic Ocean was nick-named the “upside down ocean” by Fridtjof Nansen. Nansen was a famous Norwegian zoologists, oceanographer, and Arctic explorer as well as winner of the 1922 Nobel Peace Prize.

The “upside down ocean” is so named because contrary to other oceans, the surface waters are the coldest, while between 100 and 900-meters depths the ocean is warmer due to inflows and storage of warm salty Atlantic waters. Sea ice cover prevents the ventilation of that heat. Increases in open water allows heat more ventilation and raises Arctic air temperatures 2 to 7 times faster than the global average. Open waters have been increased by changes in wind direction and currents. Open water is not proof of sea ice melting.

NASA estimates that globally added CO2 has increased downward infrared which added “a little over 0.8 Watts per square meter” of energy and that is melting sea ice. But researchers (e.g. Kim 2019) have reported that over open water more winter heat, about 2 Watts per meter squared, is being ventilated heat away than absorbed. That suggests radiative cooling!

So, NOAA’s 2019 Arctic Report Card created a “just so story” to blame more open water on the greenhouse effect and Arctic Amplification even though they state, “There is currently no consensus Arctic amplification”. They listed proposed amplification mechanisms: reduced summer albedo, increase of water vapor and clouds, lapse-rate feedback, and decreased air pollution. However, despite all the evidence, ventilating heat from the warm Atlantic layer is never mentioned. That is bad science!

Two research papers (highlighted in red) are very informative. Kahl et al 1993, reported in the prestigious journal Nature, that after 40 years of intensive measurements there was no evidence of greenhouse warming over the ice-covered ocean. However, shortly thereafter the winds shifted due to the Arctic Oscillation in the 1990s, decreasing thick insulating sea ice and increasing open waters (Rigor 2000).

A distinction must be made between Arctic fast-ice and drifting pack ice (bottom left illustration). Fast-ice melts every year and does not add to the open water trend. In contrast, some wind directions and currents can cause pack ice to converge and thicken and eliminate regional open water. Other wind directions cause sea ice to diverge, opening “flaw leads” and creating a mosaic of open water and solid ice.

Rigor (2000) reported the following measurements of heat ventilating from different sea ice thicknesses, illustrating how ventilating heat causes Arctic warming.

Open leads: 700 W m-2

0.4 meter thick: 80 W m-2

1 meter thick: 30 W m-2

3-meter thick ice: 10 W m-2

Finally, fast-ice, not pack-ice, is the critical habitat for ringed seals and polar bears. Fast-ice is where seals give birth and nurse their pups and molt their fur. It is during this 4 month period from March through June that ringed seals are most vulnerable to polar bears. Polar bears have evolved to emerge from their winter dens in March to gorge and fatten on ringed seal pups, accumulating enough energy to survive until the next year. As seen in the bottom right diagram, fast-ice has not melted during the seals critical period. It is why ringed seals are not threatened and why polar bears are increasing. Alarmists never distinguish between fast-ice and pack-ice trends.

Beware the alarmists’ Arctic propganda.