From Watts Up With That?

Guest easy by Larry Hamlin

The year-end 2023 global average temperature anomaly measurement data outcomes have climate alarmist media falsely claiming these results  established that “2023 Was the Hottest Year on Record” since records began in the mid-1800s.

These “hottest year on record” claims are based on misrepresenting the year 2023 obscure “global average temperature anomaly” outcome that is not applicable to any specific location or region on earth.

NOAA’s Global Times Series temperature anomaly data are available for 16 global regional areas listed below.

Table 1 information provided below shows all 16 NOAA Global Time Series regional average temperature anomaly data for year 2023 and identifies whether the 2023 measurement was a record high anomaly value. 

For global regions that had a record high year 2023 average temperature anomaly their prior highest region temperature anomaly value and year are shown. For global regions that did not have a record high average temperature anomaly in 2023 (with these global regions noted in all capital letters in Table 1) their highest regional average temperature anomaly value and year are provided.

Table 1 shows 7 of NOAA’s 16 global regions did not have a year 2023 highest average temperature anomaly outcome including Asia, Europe, U.S. (addressed later), Oceania, East N. Pacific Region, Hawaiian Region, Arctic, and the Antarctic. 

NOAA’s year 2023 global regional average temperature anomaly result across its 16 selected regions demonstrates the significant average temperature anomaly variation differences around the globe that are driven by the disparate climate behaviors associated with each of these regions. These disparate global regional average temperature anomaly varying outcomes are concisely displayed in Table 1.   

The global wide average temperature anomaly outcome conceals the significantly varying global climate regional differences with the alarmist claim of “highest ever measured global average temperature anomaly” masking the more complex and complete picture of the global average temperature anomaly outcomes that are displayed by NOAA’s data in Table 1.

Most significantly, NOAA’s global regional temperature anomaly data establishes that the assertion of year 2023 being the “highest ever measured average temperature anomaly” claim did not occur across the globally dominant regional land areas that include Asia, Europe, U.S. (addressed later), Oceania, Hawaiian Region, Arctic and the Antarctic.

The Table 1 average temperature anomaly data establishes that the highest global regional anomaly values vary across many different years including 2007 (Antarctica Region), 2015 (East N. Pacific & Hawaiian Region), 2016 (Arctic Region), 2019 (Oceania Region) and 2020 (Asia & Europe Regions).

Note the large range of average temperature anomaly values (a factor of more than 17 difference) that exists between the Arctic (2.55 degrees C) versus the Antarctic region (0.15 degrees C) for the year 2023 average anomaly measurements between these global polar regions. 

As shown in Table 1, NOAA’s year 2023 Global average temperature anomaly of 1.18 degrees C (corresponding to an absolute average temperature 15.08 degrees C relative to the NOAA year 1901 to 2000 global average temperature measurement baseline period average value of 13.9 degrees C from which each years global average temperature anomaly is determined) is only 0.15 degrees C (0.27 degrees F) higher than the prior highest 2016 year average temperature anomaly value of 1.03 degrees C as shown below (corresponding to an absolute average temperature of 14.93 degrees C).

Yet this small global average temperature anomaly difference of 3/20ths of a degree C from the prior highest year anomaly value of 2016 (which is an El Niño year just as is year 2023) is hyped by climate alarmist media as representing dangerous increased “record heat” and the “Earth’s hottest year on record” (instead of “highest average temperature anomaly on record” which represents an “average temperature “outcome instead of a “maximum temperature” outcome that is required to make a valid claim of “hottest year on record”).

Alarmists further exaggerate global “average temperature anomaly” outcomes by claiming they represent a “global climate emergency” where “temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in the last 100,000 years” with all this ridiculous climate alarmist propaganda based on an increased 2023 global “average temperature anomaly” difference of 0.15 degrees C from year 2016 levels.  

The year 2023 flawed climate alarmist claims of “hottest year on record” are in the same vein as the flawed claims made by climate alarmists about the summer of 2023 being “the U.S. hottest summer ever” that was addressed here and shown below.

The article notes the failure of climate alarmist to evaluate maximum summer temperatures (Tmax) instead of average summer temperatures (Tavg) with these latter temperatures influenced more by increased average minimum temperatures (Tmin) increases (as shown below for U.S. June through August summer 2023 temperatures) driven by Urban Heat Island impacts from U.S. population growth since 1895 as addressed in the article.

These huge growths in U.S. population are also reflected even more so in the world population growth over this period. 

The huge increasing global population density growth outcomes that have occurred over NOAA’s temperature anomaly measurement period from the mid-1800s to 2023 and the impact of this population density growth on global surface temperatures is unaddressed in NOAA’s year 2023 report. 

This important climate science area is addressed by climate scientists including Dr. Roy Spencer who has performed analysis evaluating increased urban population density growth impacts on surface air temperature warming defined as Urban Heat Island (UHI) impacts.     

Dr. Spencer notes the following regarding the impacts of UHI on warming in U.S. population centers: 

“As I previously announced, our paper submitted for publication on the method showed that UHI warming in the U.S. since 1895 is 57% of the GHCN warming trend averaged over all suburban and urban stations.”  

This analysis shows that summer warming in U.S. cities is exaggerated by 100% over the period from 1895 to 2023.

Long term global increasing population density UHI effects on surface air temperatures exist at all locations across the world resulting in warmer urban areas versus suburb locations as presented Dr. Roy Spencer’s analysis here.

“The quantitative relationships between temperature and population are almost the same whether I use GHCN raw or adjusted (homogenized) data, with the homogenized data producing a somewhat stronger UHI signal. They are also roughly the same whether I used data from 1880-1920, or 1960-1980; for this global dataset, all years (1880 through 2023) are used together to derive the quantitative relationships.”

“Here are some examples of the UHI dataset for several regions, showing the estimated total UHI effect on air temperature in the years 1850 and 2023 (I have files every 10 years from 1800 to 1950, then yearly thereafter). By “total UHI effect” I mean how much warmer the locations are compared to wilderness (zero population density) conditions. I emphasize the warm season months, which is when the UHI effect is strongest.”

The UHI effect of population density growth is reflected in color coded world map global regions which display increasing UHI temperature impacts from 0.01 degrees C to 2.7 degrees C as noted in the legend. As years progress and population density increases occur around the world, regional color patterns change from yellows, to greens, to reds, to purples, etc. denoting ever increasing UHI temperature increases over time.   

These increasing temperature UHI impact temperatures are clearly of significant relevance compared to NOAA’s range of modest global average temperature anomaly measurement changes over time which are typically measured in tenths of a degree C varying over multiyear periods.

Furthermore, Dr. Spencer notes that the world’s population is increasingly moving to urban centers with that reality bringing higher UHI temperature impacts that are erroneously hyped by climate alarmists and their media advocates as being driven by “global warming” when he concludes:    

“Over 50% of the population now lives in urban areas, and that fraction is supposed to approach 70% by 2045. This summer we have seen how the media reports on temperature records being broken for various cities and they usually conflate urban warmth with global warming even through such record-breaking warmth would increasingly occur even with no global warming.”    

Asia’s highest average temperature anomaly was 2.21 degrees C that occurred in year 2020 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with a year 2023 average temperature anomaly value of 2.09 degrees C as shown below. Asia has by far the largest land area and dominates global population growth across the world as addressed in Table 2. 

Asia’s year 2023 average temperate anomaly was 0.12 degrees C below its prior highest year 2020 average temperature anomaly value despite the UHI increasing temperature impacts that are present in the Asia global region as shown in Dr. Spencer’s UHI diagram below for India and China which portrays the UHI effect on increasing air temperatures between 1850 and 2023 (large areas with between 0.2 and 1.6 degrees C of UHI temperature increases) in this huge global region.

Europe’s highest average temperature anomaly was 2.16 degrees C that occurred in year 2020 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with a year 2023 average temperature anomaly of 2.15 degrees C. 

Europe’s year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.01 degrees C below its prior highest average temperature anomaly year in 2020 again despite the UHI temperature impacts that are present in the Europe global region as shown in Dr. Spencer’s UHI diagram below (large areas with between 0.1 and 0.8 degrees C UHI temperature increases) between 1850 and 2023.

North America’s highest average temperature anomaly was 2.01 degrees C that occurred in year 2023 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with the prior high average temperature anomaly in 2016 at 1.99 C. 

North America’s year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.02 degrees C above its prior highest average temperature anomaly year of 2016 again despite the UHI temperature impacts that are present in the United States global region that are shown in Dr. Spencer’s UHI diagram below (large areas with between 0.1 and 0.8 degrees C UHI temperature increases) between 1850 and 2023.

Oceania’s highest average temperature anomaly was 1.34 degrees C that occurred in year 2019 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with a with a year 2023 average temperature anomaly of 1.29 degrees C.

Oceania’s year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.05 degrees C below its prior highest average temperature anomaly year of 2019 again despite the UHI temperature impacts as shown in Dr. Spencer’s UHI diagram below (developed areas with between 0.1 and 0.8 degrees C UHI temperature increases) between 1850 and 2023 for Australia.

The Hawaiian Region highest average temperature anomaly was 1.16 degrees C that occurred in year 2015 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with a clear downward temperature anomaly trend since 2015 (ignored and concealed by alarmists). The Hawaiian Region year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.66 degrees C below its prior highest average temperature anomaly year of 2015. 

The Arctic Region highest average temperature anomaly was 3.00 degrees C that occurred in year 2016 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Time Series data with a clear downward temperature anomaly trend since 2016 to 2.55 degrees C in 2023 (ignored and concealed by alarmists). The Arctic’s year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.45 degrees C below its prior highest average temperature anomaly year of 2016.

The Antarctic Region highest average temperature anomaly was 0.65 degrees C that occurred in 2007 as shown below from NOAA’s Global Times Series data which clearly shows a 16 yearlong downward temperature anomaly trend since year 2007 (ignored and concealed by alarmists). The Antarctic’s year 2023 average temperature anomaly was 0.50 degrees C below its prior highest average temperature anomaly year of 2007 at 0.15 degrees C.

Table 2 below provides data for NOAA’s global climate regions that have the largest land area and populations with this data establishing that at least 58% of the earths land surface (Asia, Europe, U.S., Oceania and Antarctic with a total land area of 33.69 million square miles out of the global total of 57.80 million square miles) did not experience the hyped “highest ever recorded” average temperature anomaly outcome in 2023 and that the population of these huge global regions (nearly 5.86 billion people) represents over 73% of the 8 billion people now living on earth.

NOAA average temperature anomaly data for the Contiguous U.S. (shown below) clearly indicates there is no increasing average temperature anomaly trend in the U.S. with the January to December 2023 average temperature anomaly outcome exceeded by numerous years including year 2016.     

Furthermore, NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. Maximum temperature data for year-end 2023 (provided below) shows no “highest ever recorded” maximum temperature for the U.S. (8th highest in rank) in 2023.

Additionally, temperature data for NOAA’s 9 U.S. Climate Regions shown below establishes that none of these 9 climate regions experienced a “highest ever recorded maximum temperature” during 2023 (NOAA data link same as above with “Region” selection option).

Furthermore, NOAA’s year 2023 temperature data for U.S. states (with California shown below which experienced a 2023 maximum temperature that was only the 71st highest out of 129 highest maximum temperatures) establishes that 50 of the 52 states did not experience record high maximum temperatures in year 2023 (only Maryland & Louisiana are exceptions).

NOAA’s data for the average temperature anomaly temperatures for the Contiguous U.S shows no increasing average temperature anomaly trend and no maximum absolute temperature in year 2023 with the highest ever maximum Contiguous U.S. temperature occurring in year 2012 more than a decade ago with these outcomes concealed and ignored by climate alarmist media.       

The NOAA characterization that the year 2023 global average temperature anomaly was the “highest ever recorded global average temperature anomaly” misrepresents the global reality of widely varying average temperature anomaly results across the many disparate global climate regions (as detailed in Tables 1 & 2 above using NOAA’s extensive and readily available Global Time Series region average temperature anomaly data) which establish that 7 of NOAA’s Global climate regions did not experience a “highest ever average temperature anomaly” outcome in year 2023.

This data refutes the climate alarmist media’s grossly distorted and erroneous claims that the world experienced “Earth’s hottest year on record” (with the alarmist media’s continued flawed and erroneous deception where “highest ever average temperature anomaly” is cast as being the “hottest year on record” without evaluating any maximum temperature anomaly or absolute temperature data that is required to make a “hottest year on record” claim) with NOAA’s climate data showing over 58% of all global land regions with populations representing over 73% of the earth’s total 8 billion people did not experience the erroneously claimed “highest ever recorded average temperature anomaly” or “hottest year on record” in year 2023.

Additionally, these global climate data assessments fail completely to address known impacts of increasing population density growth over time that cause UHI increasing global regional temperature impacts that are not related to exaggerated CO2 claimed “global warming” with these CO2 claims built upon decades of flawed computer model hype.