On Wednesday, Hurricane Otis rapidly developed across the eastern Pacific before making landfall near Acapulco in southern Mexico as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at about 165mph.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Hurricane Otis has made landfall on the coast of southern Mexico, bringing wind speeds of up to 165mph (270km/h).

It touched down near the popular Acapulco resort just after midnight on Wednesday (06:25 GMT), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

Authorities have warned of a life-threatening storm surge and the possibility of landslides as heavy rain pelts the area.

The storm has already begun to weaken as it moves inland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67213103

Otis is supposedly the strongest landfalling Eastern Pacific hurricane on record. But not for the first time, there is strong evidence that the wind speeds have been grossly overestimated.

The official estimate of 145 Kts (166 mph) is not an actual measurement, but the “warning intensity”, in other words simply a forecast.

But according to the Digital Dvorak data from satellites, the warning intensity, was about 20 Kts higher than the actual data indicated:

In other words, the satellites suggested sustained wind speeds of about 140 mph, which means it was on;y a Cat 4 hurricane.

Nor was there any evidence on the ground of 165 mph winds, even where the eye of the storm passed through:

Ventusky also suggest sustained winds of about 80 mph at ground level.

There always seems to be a tendency for hurricane forecasters to overestimate winds, either because they are afraid of underestimating them or for political reasons.

In the case of Otis, this embarrassment factor was made worse by the fact that the NHC had only forecast a weak hurricane up until the last few hours before landfall.

Cat 4 storms are of course still catastrophic, but the public have the right to the correct data.