From STOP THESE THINGS

Dry spells, spell hot summers in Australia, which spell load shedding and mass blackouts, whenever the sun sets and/or calm weather sets in.

The summer of 2017/18 was a scorcher. Back then, load shedding caught power consumers short in South Australia, Victoria and NSW. Energy-hungry businesses such as aluminium smelters and even hospitals were forced to power down during a run of scorching days and nights, when temperatures soared and wind power output plummeted: Australia Closes Coal-Fired Power Plants: Hospitals Forced to Cut Power Use & Power Prices Rocket

5 years on, the situation is even more perilous, with the closure of several large coal-fired power plants and even more chaotic wind and solar added to the grid.

Pretending to rely on sunshine and breezes for power brings with it plenty of opportunities for freezing or boiling in the dark.

Once again, Australia is experiencing below-average rainfall; once again, Australians will feel the heat this summer; and, once again Australian power consumers and businesses will be chopped unceremoniously from the grid when temperatures rise and wind and solar output collapses.

Sky News’ Chris Kenny takes up the subject with the Federal Shadow Energy Minister, Ted O’Brien in the interview below.

‘Not surprising’: Warnings Australia could face power outages
Sky News
Chris Kenny and Ted O’Brien
31 Ausust 2023

Shadow Climate Change and Energy Minister Ted O’Brien says AMEO’s warning to the government that Australia could potentially experience blackouts over the upcoming summer isn’t surprising.

“I don’t think it should be surprising to anyone who has been following this to think that Australians are now paying among the highest electricity bills in the world, and they’re now being told that they have to brace for a very likely possibility of a blackout,” he told Sky News host Chris Kenny.

“I mean, it’s extraordinary to think we’re in Australia of all places, such a developed, wealthy, prosperous country, and we’re all saying, ‘I hope the weather is going to be okay, otherwise the lights will go out; it shouldn’t be like this.’”

Transcript

Chris Kenny: I spoke with shadow energy minister, Ted O’Brien, about how today’s warning was as predictable as it is worrying.

Ted O’Brien: It is, Chris. I don’t think it should be surprising anyone who’s been following this to think that Australians are now paying among the highest electricity bills in the world. And they’re being told now that they have to brace for a very likely possibility of a blackout. I mean, the light’s going out, it’s extraordinary, but it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Chris Kenny: No, it’s not a surprise. But we ought to be angry right around this country because so many people have been warning about this for so many years. In fact, we know the only reason we haven’t had widespread blackouts or brownouts over the past two summers is that we’ve had mild summers. We haven’t had those really hot days when there’s been high demand, and that’s what we’ve got to hope for again this summer, presumably.

Ted O’Brien: I think that’s right, Chris. And I think it was the same thing before the winter. People were saying, “Hopefully, it’s not going to be a bad winter.” And thankfully, winter didn’t bite anywhere as harshly as we thought it might, so we survived. I mean, it’s extraordinary to think we’re in Australia of all places, such a developed, wealthy, prosperous country, and we’re all saying, “Well, I hope the weather’s going to be okay, otherwise the lights will go out.” I mean, it shouldn’t be like this.

Chris Kenny: Not just a developed wealthy economy, but one that’s built on cheap energy. We are energy rich. This economy has been blessed with cheap energy in Australia, yet we’ve deliberately thwarted that. And that’s where you, as a Coalition, have got to take some of the blame. Of course, you were in government less than 18 months ago, and obviously you haven’t done enough to keep enough dispatchable energy generation in the system.

Ted O’Brien: Chris, a couple of things. Firstly, as I’ve gone around different countries and spoken to their energy ministers and experts, we are the envy of the world because we are so rich in our abundance of resources. We are the last country that should have the problems that we have now. As for the background in terms of how we get to this, I think there are three key drivers here. One, premature closure of base load power stations. Two, a restriction on gas. And three, with renewables, I mean, investment has stalled on that too. So demand exceeds supply and there’s a risk there of a shortfall, and here we are.

But the thing is, the more that Labour doubles down on this lunacy of driving to a renewables-only grid, saying that some technologies are bad, the worse this problem’s going to get. And I can’t believe that the response from the Energy Minister to this news from the market operator is saying, “Well, oh they’re doing a great job. We’ve got the right policies.” No, you don’t have the right policies when it’s getting worse. The market operator’s saying it’s getting worse. All the energy experts are saying it’s getting worse. But they need to address those three issues, of base load power and gas and the sovereign risk issue, which is holding back on investment.

Chris Kenny: Yeah, Chris Bowen just says they need more renewables, and more transmission to connect the renewables. That just costs more money and doesn’t give us the reliable supply that we need. And we’re in a country here now where we’ve subsidised renewables relentlessly for 20 years, deliberately to force out fossil fuel generation, deliberately to force out coal-fired generation. But now we’ve got Victoria and New South Wales looking to subsidise coal to keep it online because it’s being driven out by the renewable subsidies that were designed to force it out. I mean, it is that insane.

Ted O’Brien: The whole thing is in tatters, Chris. So to think that here we have the federal government saying it must be only wind and solar as the generating assets. Meanwhile, the state Labour in Victoria, well, they’re racing back to coal. We’re waiting for the New South Wales government to say the same thing to avoid Eraring close. So everyone’s going their own way. It’s an utter mess. But still to this day, Chris Bowen is saying, “Nope, we have to stick to 82% renewables by 2030.” There is no plan B. This is it. He’s racing us towards a cliff, which is why we need to keep calling it out.

Chris Kenny: I know you’ve been pushing hard on nuclear, and the Coalition ought to keep doing that. That’s a great medium to long-term solution, but obviously what we need in the interim is more gas fired generation because that won’t be a stranded asset. No matter whether you have renewables or nuclear, you’re always going to need some gas peaking generation around the country. Tell us what you think about Snowy Hydro 2.0 though. That was Malcolm Turnbull’s baby. We learned today, confirmation that its cost now is $12 billion, promised at 2 billion now 12 billion, and that doesn’t include the up to $10 billion of transmission to plug it into the system.

Ted O’Brien: And Chris, when you think of those big numbers, and then you hear Chris Bowen saying electricity prices will come down, he does not account for any of those expenses. And that was revealed only a week ago, a $60 billion black hole in his policy.

But as for Snowy 2.0, the thing that I just can’t get my head around here is it’s gone from 6 billion to 12 billion in just over 12 months. Now, I don’t doubt how complicated this is. I mean, this is one complex engineering feat. No criticism of very hardworking, sharp minds that are working on the actual project. But the Australian National Audit Office did a review of this, at the end of the Coalition’s term of government, and gave it a big tick for how it’s being managed, the governance being effective. And then I heard Paul Broad, the former CEO, on radio just yesterday, saying around that time the price tag was 6 billion. Well, now it’s 12 billion.

Now, I think it’s legitimate that some costs would’ve gone up. That’s fair enough. But to double it in over 12 months. And the only thing I can see changing is Chris Bowen signed off on a change in the deal construct. It’s no longer fixed fee, but rather cost plus. So instead of having the prime contractor responsible and holding their feet to the fire, he’s basically shifted responsibility to the taxpayer. All the risk and additional costs, that now falls on the taxpayer. So is it really 12 billion or is it going to go up even further? I think it’s uncapped.

Chris Kenny: No, we know it’ll be 20 billion at least when you bring in the transmission. That’s what experts have told us on this programme for many, many months. It’s a familiar story on this climate and energy policy. Lots of money going in, lots of costs going up, but not much energy around the place, which seems to be the opposite of what Australian taxpayers deserve. Thanks so much for joining us, Ted.

Ted O’Brien: Thanks very much, Chris.
Sky News