From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

The once in a century floods which happen every 10-20 years.

Vermont Was Supposed to Be a Climate Haven

I thought my home was safe from extreme weather. Then the rain came.

By Megan Mayhew Bergman

Lamoille County, Vermont, is home to 26,000 people living in small towns nestled among the woods and mountains. It’s known for two ski resorts—Stowe and Smugglers’ Notch—and a winding river where locals and tourists fly-fish and canoe. In 2020, a ProPublica analysis identified Lamoille as the one county, across the entire United States, that could be most protected from the combined effects of climate change, including sea-level rise, wildfires, crop damage, and economic impact. But that was before the floods.

Earlier this month, five to 10 inches of rain fell in Morrisville, near the center of the county. Roads were destroyed in nearby Wolcott. Thirty people were evacuated as floodwaters from the Lamoille River swirled around Cambridge. Entire harvests were wiped out, and major roads became impassable. Jennifer Morrison, Vermont’s public-safety commissioner, called Lamoille County “the hardest-hit area” in the state.

July’s flood is just the latest in a string of extreme weather events in Vermont this year. After a historically warm January, a late-May frost may have destroyed more than half of the state’s commercial apple crop. By summer, smoke from Canadian wildfires choked the once-clean air. Then, during the week of July 10, heavy rains flooded the state capital, Montpelier, and washed out homes and businesses across the state. It was the worst flooding since Hurricane Irene, a “100-year” storm that struck only 12 years ago.

Around the country, in climate havens and known risk zones, families are terrified of losing that tie to home. Farmers in Georgia are grieving the lost peach crop. Homeowners in Florida are eyeing the 90-degree sea, waiting for the day it laps their front lawn. Folks in Louisiana are watching the ocean rush underneath the stilts of a family cottage, coming ever closer to carrying it away.

Read more: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-change-safe-states-vermont-floods/674780/

Megan spins a great narrative, but ignores the reality that Vermont, like other land locked mountainous regions of the world, is prone to severe flooding.

The following is from Worst Flood Events in Vermont’s History.

• The Great Vermont Flood of 1927, Nov. 3-4, 1927 On November 3 and 4, 1927, heavy rains on frozen ground … Eighty-four people were killed …
• Rainfall, Sept. 21, 1938 … the tempest that devastated Vermont in 1938 is the only storm in the state’s history to arrive as a hurricane.  …
• Rainfall, July 6, 1973 A combination of a west-moving frontal system and a moist, southeasterly flow from the Atlantic Ocean resulted in heavy rainfall in some parts of Vermont that was not seen since 1927.  …
• Remnants of Hurricane Belle, Aug. 9-10, 1976 In 1976, Long Island was struck by a Category 1 hurricane, which skirted the Vermont/New Hampshire border. …
• Spring storms, April 4-6, 1987 On April 4 to 6, 1987, snowmelt and rainfall caused reservoirs in the Winooski River basin at East Barre, Wrightsville, and Waterbury to spill over for the first time in their history, …
• Ice Jam, March 11, 1992 The flooding on March 11, 1992, was caused by a massive ice jam on the Winooski River. Blocking the flow and raising the river into the city, downtown Montpelier was inundated to a depth of 2-5 feet within less than an hour. …
• Rainfall, June 27-July 13, 1998 … On June 27, 1998, heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches fell in Vermont, causing flash flooding along the Connecticut River basins in central Vermont.  …
• Tropical Storm Floyd, Sept. 16-21, 1999 … Vermont endured major flooding and damage from heavy rain and strong winds from September 16 to 21, 1999, when Hurricane Floyd struck the East Coast …
• Severe storms, April 15-21, 2007 … Severe storms caused heavy rain, snow, and high winds in Vermont on April 15-21, 2007, leading to flooding in the region due to combined rain and snowmelt. Snowfall of 4 to 7 …
• Rainfall flash flood, July 9-11, 2007 … From July 9 to July 11, 2007, a major storm system swept through Orange and Windsor Counties, resulting in high winds, lightning, hail, and heavy rains.  …
• Rainfall flash flood, June 14, 2008 … Localized heavy rainfall up to 7 inches occurred in Ripton, which is located in Addison County, and 3-5 inches in Rutland. …
• Rainfall, July 24- Aug 12, 2008 … Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches occurred during the afternoon and evening of July 24, with localized amounts that exceeded 3 inches …
• Snowmelt & rainfall, April, May, 2011 2011 was an especially bad year for flooding in Vermont. Four disaster declarations were issued over the course of the year, all attributed to flooding.
• Tropical Storm Irene, Aug. 28-Sept. 2, 2011 … As of the beginning of the 2023 storm season, Tropical Storm Irene was by far the most devastating weather event in Vermont’s history …
• Memorial Day Storms, May 22-26, 2013 … Flash flooding on Memorial Day Weekend in 2013 caused approximately $1.5 million in damage across Chittenden, Lamoille, and Essex Counties.  …
• July 9-11, 2023 … A storm brought nearly 6 inches of rain to Vermont Monday, July 10.  …

I’m guessing Vermont is full of houses which probably should never have been built due to flood risk. FEMA bought out 90 homes in Vermont in the wake of the 2011 floods and demolished them, but this is likely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to poorly sited housing developments. Perhaps the apparent break between severe flood events from 1938 – 1973 lulled politicians and planning officials into a false sense of security.

I found Megan’s search for a climate refuge intriguing, because I’m also a climate refugee – but I’m a refugee from government climate policy, not climate change.

I moved from Britain to a warm part of Australia a decade ago, because I foresaw that the green obsessed British political establishment were on the brink of messing up the energy supply. Today, in the middle of the southern hemisphere winter, we’ll turn the cooling fans on in the afternoon because the house will be slightly too warm.

If Australia’s madhouse climate policy drives energy prices so high even air conditioning is unaffordable, that would be inconvenient, but it would be a lot more survivable than trying to live in places like Vermont or Britain without home heating.

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For more on extreme weather go to claimed dangers page at EverythingClimate.com.