From Watts Up With That?
Let’s sprinkle a dash of humor onto your daily helping of apocalypse stew. I’ve just read Ben Turner’s article, “Catastrophic climate ‘doom loops’ could start in just 15 years, new study warns” and boy, I thought we had at least 16 years left! Cue ominous thunderclap.
As our dear friend Turner writes,
“According to the research, more than a fifth of the world’s potentially catastrophic tipping points — such as the melting of the Arctic permafrost, the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the sudden transformation of the Amazon rainforest into savanna — could occur as soon as 2038.”
Catastrophic tipping points? 2038? Did we just open a dystopian novel or is this reality?
The science behind these “tipping points” is apparently, as Turner writes,
“poorly understood and often based on oversimplified models.”
If my lifelong experience of assembling IKEA furniture has taught me anything, it’s that oversimplification and poor understanding often lead to, well, collapses. You could call them “catastrophic furniture tipping points,” if you like.
And apparently,
“unlike the well-established link between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change, the study of tipping points is a young and contentious science.”
As young and contentious as my neighbor’s teenage son who just got his first electric guitar, it seems. Oh, how we love to argue with nascent phenomena, whether it’s ear-piercing music or ecological doom.
“But if these simulations miss an important element or interaction, their forecasts can land decades off the mark. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the United Nations’ most important body for evaluating climate science) said in its most recent report that the Amazon rainforest could reach a tipping point that will transform it into a savannah by 2100.”
I suppose one can only be so precise when modelling the collapse of civilization. Or at least as precise as a dart game after a few drinks.
As Turner writes,
“After testing their systems across multiple modes — with just one cause of collapse acting, with multiple causes acting and with all of the causes plus the introduction of random noise to mimic fluctuations in climate variables — the scientists made some troubling findings: multiple causes of collapse acting together brought the abrupt transformation of some systems up to 80% closer to the present day.”
Oh, we do love our speculative modeling drama, don’t we? I mean, if you’re going to simulate the end of the world, why not turn it up to 11?
Finally, co-author Gregory Cooper says that their findings
“show the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences.”
Ah, the grand finale. Cooper, you’ve missed your calling as a thriller writer.
Environmental problems exist, but maybe, just maybe, instead of ringing the doomsday bell at a deafening volume, we should work on solving the problems we can see right now. You know, like my neighbor’s son who’s decided to play a guitar solo at 2 am. Let’s face it, that’s a real and imminent catastrophe.
HT/strativarius
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