From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

Why on earth do they need a Climate Modelling Team, never mind a Head of Situational Awareness?

Summer temperatures in London could be like Nice in 50 years’ time if carbon emissions continue to rise at their current rate, the Met Office has warned.

Jeff Knight, who runs the forecaster’s climate variability modelling team, said that – in a high emissions scenario – “the central estimate of temperature increase by 2070 is about 4C in southern England.

Referring to the UK’s record-breaking heatwave in 2022, he said: “Despite the events of July last year, 40C days are still considered rare, but by … 2070 then we could be thinking about those kinds of temperatures occurring every five years.

“If we think about a four-degree temperature increase, that would be like transforming the climate of London, the summer temperatures of London, into something like historically we might have seen in Nice.”.

Speaking at a Met Office briefing ahead of the peak summer months, head of situational awareness Will Lang said that he could not rule out a repeat of last year’s heatwave that saw temperatures reach 40C (104F) for the first time in the UK.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-london-summers-will-be-as-hot-as-nice-by-2070-if-carbon-v-keep-rising-met-office-warns-12906899

As the Met Office know full well, or should do, the high emissions scenario used for this latest scare is widely accepted by scientists to be an impossible one.

But worse still, this latest piece of Met Office junk science is utterly discredited by the actual data, which shows English summers have warmed by less than a degree since the 1940s. If emissions continue to rise at the same rate as they have since then, why on earth should anybody believe temperatures will rise by 4C in the next 50 years?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

And there is an even bigger problem with their modelling. Even though average summer temperatures may be rising, largely because of the reducing frequency of cold, wet summers, temperatures are not increasing at the top end. The summer of 1976 still stands as the hottest summer in England.

And there is a good reason for this. Hot summers are the result of plentiful sunshine and the dominance of southerly or easterly winds bringing hot continental air. In other words, weather.

While you cannot rule out freak weather events, such as the one last July that brought hot Saharan air to the UK, the dominant role of the sun effectively puts a ceiling on summer temperatures.

Given the UK’s latitude, we are never going to see the sort of 27C summers that are the norm in Nice.