From  Montelnews 

By ANTON TIGERSTEDT

Photo: TVO

(Montel) Finland will soon have the lowest electricity prices in Europe thanks to an abundance of new capacity including the 1.6 GW Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant, StormGeo analyst Sigbjorn Seland said on Thursday.

“Our forecast shows that 25 TWh of renewable energy will be built in Finland by 2030, which will push down prices,” he told Montel’s Finnish Energy Day in Helsinki.

The Nordic nation already saw its first monthly power surplus in almost 20 years in May, a trend that will extend annually.

Finland’s net exports could reach 2 TWh this year, following net imports of 12 TWh last year, Seland said, noting that net exports could rise to 6 TWh next year.

“Finland is no longer a high-price area but should be seen as a low-price area on par with SE1 in northern Sweden,” he said.

StormGeo’s latest forecast shows Finnish day-ahead power prices averaging EUR 58/MWh this year and EUR 51/MWh next year, well below the average of EUR 154.04/MWh last year and at least EUR 10 under the forecasts for the regional Nordic benchmark system price.

Rising renewable power supply
Finnish prices could even fall further, Seland said, noting an expected surge in new capacity from intermittent wind and solar power.

Around 11 TWh will come from new wind power capacity due to launch by 2025, along with several TWh of solar power.

“If there is no large increase in consumption, the [average Finnish spot] price could fall below EUR 45/MWh next year and below EUR 40/MWh in 2025,” he said.

Fingrid, the TSO, estimates 75 TWh of new annual output from wind and solar plants by 2030.

“If this estimate is right in, then our forecast shows spot prices in Finland of under EUR 20/MWh from 2027,” Seland said.

However, he considered it unlikely that prices will fall so low, noting the marginal cost of onshore wind power would be around EUR 30/MWh in 2030, according to StormGeo’s models.

“Everything has a cost and investors must get a return on investment. But Finland will have the lowest price in Europe,” he said.