Astrophysicists conclude climate models are deeply flawed. Doubling CO2 to 560 ppm only elicits about 1°C warming.

Dr. Frank Stefani is an astrophysicist who has published several recent papers (Stefani et al., 2016,  Stefani et al., 2017, Stefani et al., 2018, Stefani et al., 2019, Stefani et al., 2020) on the role of solar cycles in modulating change in the Earth system, including climate.

In a newly published paper in the journal Climate Stefani used regression analysis to arrive at the conclusion the doubled CO2 climate sensitivity ranges from 0.6-1.6°C. He summarized compatible CO2 climate sensitivity estimates (Laubereau et al., 2013, Feldman et al., 2015, Rentsch, 2020) that also range from 0.64-0.82°C when doubling CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm.

Stefani forecasts less than 1°C warming by 2100 even without CO2 mitigation policies.

Image Source: Stefani, 2021

Dr. Nicola Scafetta is another astrophysicist who has concluded the consequence of doubling CO2 (280→560 ppm) “could be between 1 and 2°C” in a new paper also published in the journal Climate. He asserts a significant portion of the warming in recent decades “could have been induced by natural oscillations.”

Scafetta is highly critical of the flawed model-based overestimation of warming associated with rising CO2 emissions. He emphasizes just how much climate model estimates diverge from observations, as modeled “predictions disagree from the data by more than 0.2°C (on a total mean warming of about 0.5 °C from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021) over more than 50% of the global surface.”

Image Source: Scafetta, 2021

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December 20, 2021