Tag Archives: China

Weakest link for EV’s is in China’s supply chain

From CFACT

Federal and state energy policies, now pushing electric vehicles on a reluctant public, are running in conflict with other social and environmental restrictions banning vital materials and component imports.

As consequences, U.S. and European auto companies are racing into Chinese rare earth monopoly and other supply traps posing inevitable economic and national security threats.

American EV consumers who ride along will be left in a ditch along with dealers who lack essential inventory and profitable markets.

This is already occurring.

U.S. customs officials have seized thousands of German Volkswagens over a single part made in China’s Xinjiang region, believed to be in violation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which requires importers to provide evidence that their goods were not produced with forced labor in order to avoid penalties.

The German company is a joint venture partner with Chinese-owned SAIC Motors, which owns a factory in Xinjing’s capital, Urumqi.

Volkswagen was previously linked to such a violation when the German newspaper Handelsblatt reportedly obtained photographs showing Uyghur workers in military uniforms during the three-year construction of a car-testing track.

As reported in the Financial Times, U.S. authorities have also impounded and are investigating luxury brands produced by Porsche, Bentley, and Audi over suspected UFPLA violations involving electronic components, resulting in delivery delays of uncertain length.

A recent Human Rights Watch report has also warned that carmakers, including Tesla, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Toyota, are failing to ensure they aren’t using aluminum produced by Uyghur forced labor.

Aluminum is used extensively in EV manufacture as a mileage economy measure to compensate for heavy battery weight.

Whereas Tesla owns a factory in Shanghai that builds cars for both Chinese and international markets, they had reportedly tracked its supply chain back to the mining level without evidence of forced labor.

Then, factor in influences of new and existing environmental regulations influencing rare earth mining and processing for batteries, which represent a major EV cost

Biden administration’s anti-drilling and pro-EV policies have made America increasingly dependent on rare earth minerals mined for those batteries under atrocious slave labor and environmental conditions bureaucrats ignore.

China controls a stranglehold monopoly of about 80% of the global supply, with Congo a 90% source of vital cobalt.

As a consequence, Mountain Pass in California, the sole remaining operational U.S. rare earth mine that lost two years of production due to a 2016 bankruptcy, incredulously continues to send its mined ore to China for processing.

Expect those battery costs to escalate in concert with increased global demands for nickel — a primary component of lithium-ion cathodes — having already risen over six years from $10,336 per metric ton in August 2016 to $16,104 currently.

Purchasers should consider that, with a Tesla battery typically costing about $10,000, their resale price will likely have to be significantly higher than that of a comparably aged and sized internal combustion model in similar condition.

Also, expect that on the resale end, an average on-the-road 12-year-old used EV will be on its second or third new battery before an owner can sell it.

Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru have meanwhile all had to adjust new model sales prices upward due to the scarcity of semiconductors, a supply condition that will only become more precarious if and when government-mandated EV numbers multiply.

Currently, despite huge auto investments and government subsidies, this isn’t happening.

As reported in The Wall Street Journal, in September of last year, it took retailers over two months to sell an EV, compared with around a month for gas-powered vehicles and only three weeks for a gas-electric hybrid.

Falling demand and rising prices have prompted Ford to cut previously planned 2024 production of its F-150 electric truck in half after losing $60,000 on each EV sold while also pausing construction of a $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan.

Facing similar realities, General Motors has said it will delay opening a planned large EV truck factory in Michigan by a year, citing a need “to better manage capital investments while aligning with evolving EV demand”.

This slowdown and resulting industry business losses are occurring both despite and in addition to generous $7,500 federal tax credit subsidies offered as EV incentives to reluctant buyers and jacked-up costs for gasoline models consumers truly want to keep vehicle manufacturers financially afloat.

Consequentially, China isn’t the only EV supply chain threat.

A 2024 political climate change returning the presidency and Congress to Republican control will hopefully replace that EV subsidy supply chain with free market choices that will end the greatest threat of all — Biden and Beijing’s influence over what we buy and drive.

This article by Larry Bell originally appeared at NewsMax

A New 1787-2005 Temperature Reconstruction Determines The Coldest 50-Year Period Was 1940-1993

From NoTricksZone

By Kenneth Richard

The warmest 50-year period in northeastern China occurred from 1844-1893.

Li et al., 2024

“Compared with single years, in general, high or low temperatures that persist for many years will more significantly affect the growth of trees [30]. When we defined years with T12-1 ≥ −10.73 °C (Mean + 1σ) and T12-1 ≤ −12.61 °C (Mean − 1σ) as extreme warm years and cold years, respectively, the reconstruction for the period of 1787–2005 contained 31 cold years and 36 warm years (Table 4). The extreme cold/warm events lasting for three or more consecutive years were discovered in 1965–1967 and 1976–1978/1791–1798, 1844–1849 and 1889–1891. An 11-year smoothing average of the reconstructed T12-1 series was performed to reveal multi-year and interdecadal variations and to detect the several prolonged cold and warm periods (Figure 5d). After smoothing with an 11-yr moving average, cold periods occurred in 1822–1830 (mean T12-1 = −12.7 °C) and 1957–1970 (mean T12-1 = −12.7 °C), while a warm period occurred in 1787–1793 (mean T12-1 = −10.4 °C) (Figure 5d). Rapid and sustained cooling was observed in the reconstructed series in the years 1790–1826 (T12-1 range −10.3 °C to −12.8 °C, mean = −12.0 °C) and 1939–1969 (T12-1 range −11.6 °C to −12.7 °C, mean = −12.1 °C), where the rates of cooling were about 0.067 °C/year and 0.035 °C/year, respectively (Figure 5d). The two cooling events may be due to the decrease in solar activity [48,49,50]. Using a 50-year time scale, the highest temperature occurring during 1787–2005 was from 1844 to 1893 (T12-1 range −12.79 °C to −9.41 °C, mean = −11.15 °C), similar results were also obtained by Zhu et al. and Jiang et al., while the lowest temperature was from 1940–1993 (T12-1 range −13.57 °C to −10.26 °C, mean = −12.13 °C) (Figure 5d) [33].”

“Recent studies have underscored the strong correlation between changes in Earth’s climate and solar activity. The prevailing belief is that during periods of lower solar activity, such as the Dalton Minimum (c. AD 1790–1830) [51,52,53], Earth’s temperature is expected to decrease. Our reconstruction reflects these expectations, displaying low values from AD 1790 to 1830 that coincide with the Dalton Minimum of diminished solar activity (Figure 7a). Conversely, during periods of heightened solar activity, the climate tends to warm, as observed during the Roman warm period (400–10 BC) and the medieval warm period (900–1200 AD) [53]. It was found that the upper temperature of the troposphere and stratosphere was synchronous with the 10–12 years cycle of solar activity [54]. The 12.9 years cycle correspond with the sun spot cycle [55,56,57,58]. Correlation analyses revealed a significant positive correlation between the annual reconstructed T12-1 and the number of sunspots from the previous December to the current January, with r = 0.22 (N = 188 years, 1818–2005, p = 0.011). The 73-year cycle may be linked to the 50–80 years Lower Gleissberg cycle [31], reflecting changes in solar radiation intensity [57]. A noteworthy relationship between the reconstructed series and sunspot numbers was identified during specific periods, including the 1790s–1840s, 1850s–1870s, 1920s–1930s, and 1950s–2000s (Figure 8B). Additionally, other studies in northern China have also detected cycles of approximately 10 years [25,58,59] and approximately 70 years [45], suggesting potential effects of solar activity in the region.”

Image Source: Li et al., 2024

UK’s £400m electric bus scheme accused of ‘subsidising China’

British manufacturers say current scheme is slowing net zero transition.

A£400m scheme set up to encourage the rollout of electric buses is effectively subsidising Chinese companies to the detriment of British ones, a group of transport businesses have claimed.

Under the so-called Zebra initiative, local authorities and bus operators can apply for grant funding to support the purchase of zero-emission buses. The Telegraph has the story.

It is part of the ‘bus back better’ plan unveiled by the Government during the pandemic and aims to finance the purchase of 4,000 buses, accounting for around one-tenth of Britain’s total fleet.

But some companies have complained that the bidding rules exclude projects to convert existing petrol or diesel-fueled buses into electric ones – while aiding purchases of vehicles that depend on Chinese manufacturers.

Businesses such as Sheffield-based Magtec, Scarborough-based Kleanbus and Norfolk-based Equipmake argue that converting existing diesel buses – a method known as ‘repowering’ – is a greener alternative than buying new vehicles.

But they say the Government’s grant scheme currently incentivises new bus purchases instead of repowering, effectively distorting the market.

Currently, about 70pc of electric buses being purchased in the UK are Chinese-manufactured or contain Chinese-made components such as batteries, according to an analysis of official figures by Magtec.

For example, the most common bus model registered in Britain now is the Enviro bus, which is built by Shenzhen-based BYD.

But Magtec and others say operators and local authorities should also be allowed to receive grant funding for repowering. A scheme comparable to Zebra already allows for this in Scotland.

Doing so would also speed up the transition to electric buses overall, they argue, boosting the number that come into service each year.

Read the full story here.

As China Builds Yugos, EVs May Be the New Edsels

From the RealClearEnergy

By Duggan Flanakin

The year 1957 is memorable for at least two historic launches. The launch by the Soviet Socialist Union of the Sputnik, the world’s first artificial satellite, prompted the U.S. to create the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) the very next year.

Eleven years later, Neil Armstrong stepped out of Apollo 11 and famously proclaimed, “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.”

Barely three years later, Apollo 17 astronaut Eugene Cernan announced the end of the manned space flight experiment: “We shall return, with peace and hope for all mankind.”

Many believe that the Challenger launch failure in 1986, with teacher Christa McAuliffe one of the seven dead, and the disintegration of Space Shuttle Columbia in 2003, in which another seven astronauts died, ended the U.S. dream of manned space flight.

Former NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory systems engineer Mark Adler spilled the beans in 2015. “The bottom-line answer is that it was … way too expensive. The shuttle never met its promise for low-cost access to space.” [Well, it was a government program!]

Cost-cutting and bureaucratic overkill were behind the Challenger (whose politically correct O-rings failed) and Columbia disasters. As chief NASA historian Bill Barry told Newsweek, “People realized that [Columbia] was a lot more risky than generally thought [mostly] because of [design] compromises … due to cutbacks in the budget [emphasis added].”

The other historic 1957 launch was Ford Motor Company’s much-heralded Edsel. Ten years in the making, at a development cost of $250 million ($2.78 billion in 2024 dollars), Ford dealers saw thousands lining up to buy the new dream car that September, but by yearend monthly sales had fallen by a third.

Two years later, Ford ceased production of the Edsel and revamped its production lines to build compact cars. According to Time reporter Lily Rothman, “As it turned out, the Edsel was a classic case of the wrong car for the wrong market at the wrong time.”

Ford had relied on market research showing that within a decade half of U.S. families could buy then-popular medium-priced vehicles. Further studies led Ford to design “the smart car for the younger executive or professional family on its way up.”

To Ford’s sad surprise, by 1957 the lust for medium-priced cars was usurped by a new boom in the compact field, an area the Edsel research had overlooked completely, said Rothman.

Much as with the space program, the federal government has spent huge sums subsidizing the construction and purchase of electric vehicles, including 18-wheelers, airplanes, and tanks. All of this has been driven, ostensibly, by the perceived threat posed by the plant food carbon dioxide.

Much as with the Edsel, the electric vehicles that European, American, and other Western governments have been subsidizing are “the wrong car for the wrong market at the wrong time.”

Around the planet, individuals, automakers, and even policy advisors are waking up to this gross miscalculation.

Meanwhile, the Chinese, who long ago cornered the market on the primary raw materials and technologies needed for producing EVs in quantity, stand to be the primary sellers of vehicles Western governments have mandated that the hoi polloi purchase.

The largest Chinese automaker, Biyadi (BYD), uses the slogan “Build Your Dream” to lure buyers into even greater reliance on Chinese technology that will erase tens of thousands of American jobs.

BYD sells battery-electric vehicles in China for US$26,000. BYD makes its own batteries, semiconductors, and seal upholstery, and its nearly 30,000 patents owned or filed puts BYD light years ahead of any Western automaker.

The only brakes on China destroying the world auto market are tariffs and other import restrictions – or ending the EV mandates. But the tariffs would likely be passed onto customers, forcing Americans to pay double if Washington forces Chinese EVs down their throats.

And, as noted, without the tariffs, Ford, General Motors, and every other non-Chinese automaker could quickly be forced into bankruptcy. The United Auto Workers know this and hedged their bets for 2024 by throwing money in both directions. Western automakers, joining Toyota, have already pulled back from their EV production commitments.

Ford, which has been losing $60,000 – more than the selling price – on every EV it sells, saw sales of its Lightning F-150 fall 46% in third quarter 2023. Mercedes downsized its EV sales projections by 2030 by 50% and announced it will update its petrol-fueled fleet engines into the next decade. Now Ford has halted all shipments of the Lightning F-150.

Rivian, too, has fallen on hard times, laying off 10% of its workforce, signaling a significant decline in demand. With prices starting at $70,000 for its pickup and $75,000 for its SUV, the sales downturn led to a corporate loss of $1.52 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

Slackening demand for EVs has even led to entire mines shutting down as the supply of rare-earth minerals now exceeds demand. Albemarle announced it was deferring spending on a planned $1.3 billion plant in North Carolina. The price of lithium has shrunk by 90%, and the price of nickel has been cut in half. As a result, a nickel mine in New Caledonia recently suspended operations.

In the UK, auto dealers are offering discounts of up to 25% on EVs sitting idle on their lots. The Lords Committee says British drivers are “giving the cold shoulder” to the electric transition despite dramatic drops in finance rates for EVs in an effort to boost flagging sales. Non-fleet EV purchases in the UK fell by 25% from the prior year, with yet another reason being much higher auto insurance rates.

The obvious ability of China to dominate the EV market, coupled with increasing public resistance to EV mandates, has put pressure on the European Union and its member states. A year ago, the EU took a baby step backward, agreeing to allow sales and registration of internal combustion engine vehicles after the 2035 deadline if they operate only on carbon-neutral fuels. 

In the U.S., President Biden had until very recently doubled down on his EV demands, ignoring the concerns of automakers, auto unions, and the auto buying public. Just a week ago, the EPA indicated it was “considering” delaying EV mandates beyond 2030, an election-year concession that could quickly be reversed.

A 2023 Gallup poll showed that only 16% of Americans with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 either own or are “seriously” considering purchasing an electric vehicle. The most likely EV buyer is a Democrat who lives in a Pacific Coast state, but only 28% of U.S. Democrats and 25% on the West Coast either own or are “seriously” considering an EV.

As Mark Knopfler’s Romeo said to Juliet, “the timing was all wrong,” perhaps the only real flaw with the current EV mandates is that the supply chain – especially in the West – is just not ready for prime time.

But in another few years, things could change. After all, the privately funded Odysseus Moon lander just became the first new U.S. presence on the lunar surface in 55 years.

On the other hand, unless the West cedes EV manufacturing to China, the EV may soon become so unpopular it will go the way of the Edsel.

Duggan Flanakin is a senior policy analyst at the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow who writes on a wide variety of public policy issues. 

Biden’s green energy plans will funnel taxpayer billions to Chinese firms

Plans designed to protect US industry will bankroll China’s expansion.

From The Telegraph

By DAVID BLACKMON

It has been obvious for several years now that this government-subsidized energy transition away from fossil fuels and towards wind, solar, and electric vehicles will necessarily leave the western world highly dependent on China. This is an unavoidable truth given China’s overwhelming control of supplies and supply chains for minerals, processing, and components integral to the three rent-seeking industries presented as climate solutions by globalist elites.

In America, Joe Biden and congressional Democrats presented their Orwellian-titled Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as a plan that would help the US to build independence from China in this realm by subsidizing projects that would create competitive domestic sectors. But recent developments make it apparent that exactly the opposite is happening. 

A report by the Wall Street Journal details the fact that domestic content requirements for some domestic electric vehicles aren’t comprehensive enough to prevent Chinese encroachment into the US market. Chinese EV maker BYD is exploring opportunities to invest in plants in Mexico that would enable it to enter the US market by exploiting provisions in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that would allow it to avoid heavy US tariffs on imports of Chinese-made cars. 

The Journal reports that “at least a dozen” Chinese makers of EV components have already established factories in Mexico to exploit provisions in the USMCA that encourage US automakers to use parts made there. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares likens expansion plans by Chinese automakers into Mexico to the arrival of Japanese car companies into the US during the 1970s. Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk echoes Tavares’s concerns, saying, “If there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”

Another story at the Daily Mail details concerns from various industry experts about growing efforts by Chinese companies to tap directly into the US by exploiting the various subsidies and tax breaks contained in the IRA. Access to the array of IRA goodies was left open to all comers without consideration of their country of origin, providing Chinese makers of solar cells, EV batteries and other relevant components – who already dominate global markets – the opportunity to seize a major share of the US market as well.

Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the non-profit Coalition for a Prosperous America, called the IRA structure “naïve,” adding that “The bottom line is that if you take markets like electric vehicle (EV) batteries, or solar cells, where China already has a dominant global position, and you allow its firms to own facilities in the US and access the US taxpayer, you’re allowing them to extend their global monopoly.”

The non-partisan business NGO E2 says Chinese companies are already tied to at least a dozen US-based projects with capital investments of over $10 billion that will be able to exploit IRA provisions. Biden’s own Treasury Department admits that Chinese firms already represent about 15 per cent of new solar-related investment in the US market since the IRA was passed into law in September 2022.

In one of his earliest actions upon assuming office, President Biden issued an executive order directing his administration to mount a “whole of government” approach to establish supply chains independent of China related to minerals and components integral to the expansion of the three chosen rent-seeking industries: wind, solar and EVs. Last November, the White House finally got around to convening a new Council on Supply Chain Resilience that will consider acting on a list of about 30 separate actions to advance that lofty goal. 

It’s a classic slow-moving bureaucratic process that likely amounts to too little, too late, as Chinese interests are already exploiting ill-considered provisions in the IRA and USMCA to gain footholds into American markets. Any thoughts that an asleep-at-the-wheel White House and paralyzed congress will be willing or able to move quickly and effectively to address the matter are absurd. That’s just not how Washington, DC works.

David Blackmon had a 40 year career in the US energy industry, the last 23 years of which were spent in the public policy arena, managing regulatory and legislative issues for various companies. He continues to write and podcast on energy matters

China Looking to Build EV Factories in Mexico to Avoid U.S. Tariffs on Its Imports

By IER (instituteforenergyresearch.org)

Key Takeaways

1

China’s BYD, the world’s largest EV maker, is scoping out Mexico, where labor costs are low, to locate a new EV plant as a backdoor manufacturing hub for their entrance into the U.S. market.

2

Cars imported directly into the United States from China are assessed a 27.5 percent tariff, while those from Mexico are assessed at most a 2.5 percent tariff.

3

American manufacturers are concerned because China can manufacture cars at a much lower cost as it dominates and controls the EV energy supply chain, including the processing of necessary minerals.

4

BYD currently sells most of its vehicles domestically in China but is making inroads by offshoring manufacturing in obliging countries.

5

The U.S. EV market is ripe due to Biden’s strident push for electric vehicles including subsidies and mandates designed to force people out of internal combustion vehicles.

BYD, China’s largest EV auto maker, which recently surpassed Tesla as the world’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, is reviewing potential locations for a plant in Mexico that would allow it to bring its low-cost electric vehicles into the United States. Mexico offers close proximity to U.S. markets, relatively low labor costs and the opportunity to take advantage of low or zero tariffs on made-in-Mexico vehicles. Some of the locations BYD is considering are near the U.S. border. At least a dozen Chinese electric-car component suppliers have also announced new factories or added to their existing investments in Mexico in recent years. They are responding to a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal that encourages carmakers in North America to use locally sourced materials.

BYD is looking to expand globally as it has an excess domestic EV inventory. CEOs at rival automakers have warned about the potential threat from China, with some suggesting the need for more government action to avert such competition in the United States as Chinese automakers have a big cost advantage in the electric vehicle market with China’s dominance of the battery supply chain and processing of essential minerals. Through engineering, government subsidies and lower labor costs, BYD and other China-based EV makers have been able to entice customers with stylish and technologically advanced electric vehicles at attractive prices. If China can lock buyers into electric vehicles dependent upon its dominant supply chains, it would strengthen its position as the world’s leading car manufacturer.

BYD’s low-price electric vehicles have gained traction with buyers in places such as Europe and Southeast Asia. Europe, where Chinese EV imports are strong due to their lower price and Europe’s net zero carbon goals, is conducting an investigation into whether China provided subsidies to the industry unfairly, making it more difficult for European EV carmakers to compete. The investigation could result in new tariffs if EU officials find the Chinese companies are receiving unfair subsidies. The Biden administration is monitoring Chinese investment in Mexico amid concerns Chinese businesses could take advantage of North American free-trade agreement rules.

Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Chrysler-parent Stellantis, likened China’s potential entry in the United States to the arrival of the Japanese automakers in the 1970s and South Korean firms in the 1990s, calling their expansion as “very Powerful.” Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk also expressed similar concerns, saying the Chinese companies have already had significant success outside of China and are now the “most competitive” in the world.

Currently, Chinese-built electric vehicles are subject to a 27.5 percent tariff when imported into the United States that is composed of a 2.5 percent tariff that generally applies to imported cars plus an additional 25 percent tariff on Chinese-made cars that was introduced by the Trump administration in 2018. The Biden administration is debating whether to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles further, and the Inflation Reduction Act limits eligibility for a $7,500 consumer tax credit for cars built with batteries made by Chinese companies.

In comparison, cars made at a Chinese-owned factory in Mexico would only be faced with the 2.5 percent tariff upon entering the United States and could possibly pay no tariff if they met stringent standards for local content under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement adopted in 2020.

Executives at Toyota estimated that Chinese companies had a 25 percent to 30 percent cost advantage over global competitors when manufacturing electric vehicles—more than enough to overcome the small 2.5-percent U.S. tariff. Pushing EV adoption too quickly would serve, however, as an invitation for Chinese EV companies including BYD, Geely and NIO to enter rigorously into the U.S. EV market. President Biden has a goal of electric vehicles making up 50 percent of new car sales by 2030, and his EPA and Department of Transportation have proposed rules that would effectively force electric vehicles to make up two-thirds of new car sales in 2032. The Biden Administration is pushing electric vehicles upon manufacturers and consumers and enticing them with subsidies for vehicles and charging stations.

BYD sees other potential uses for the plant in Mexico, including using it as an export hub for shipping cars to South America or sending batteries and other car parts to the United States. In China, BYD makes many EV parts in-house, including its EV batteries, to reduce costs—advantages it may or may not be able to replicate in Mexico. In North America, the company currently sells electric buses and trucks made at its location in Lancaster, California.

Conclusion

Chinese companies are looking into building EV car factories in Mexico to take advantage of the Mexico-U.S.-Canada trade agreement and avoid hefty tariffs on imports of electric vehicles coming directly from China. In particular, BYD, China’s largest EV automaker that recently surpassed Tesla in sales, is looking at locations in Mexico near the U.S. border. Chinese companies have a 25 to 30 percent cost advantage over U.S. competitors because of dominance in the EV battery supply chain and processing of critical minerals as well as low-cost labor and attractive energy prices. CEOs of U.S. automakers are worried that China could make a serious dent in the EV market as Japan and South Korea have done in the conventional auto market previously. With onerous proposed EV rules by Biden administration agencies on U.S. carmakers, the competition could be disastrous for legacy car makers, who are currently losing vast sums on meeting Biden’s EV goals.

China built 47GW of coal power last year and is “way off track” to meet emissions targets

By Jo Nova

If coal is a planet wrecking problem, if it really mattered, about 30 countries are beating themselves up in acts of grandiose public flagellation, while one country is wrecking the planet and nobody cares. The truth is that no one is behaving like they think CO2 is causing a crisis. All over the West everyone wears the hippie-care coat while buying the cheapest fridges, phones and fashion they can get from the global coal furnace.  And China nods the nod then keeps on adding coal power plants.

Climate change: China at risk of missing its goals unless it takes drastic action to rein in coal expansion, new research finds

Eric Ng, South China Morning Post

Last year, the Chinese energy sector’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 5.2 per cent, the same as gross domestic product, highlighting a failure to rein in energy-intensive growth, they estimated.

According to the Global Coal Plant Tracker 70 gigawatts of new coal power was built around the world in 2023. Of the 107 countries they tracked, one country built 47 gigawatts.  The other 106 countries combined built 22 gigawatts.  The distribution of new coal plants is thus:

Or put another way:

And this pattern has been repeated for 23 years.

This is the combined total of coal power installed around the world since the turn of the century:

So the rulers of the West buy their transformers, solar panels and wind turbines from The Coal Giant, while pretending they sincerely want to reduce coal use. And the populace buy their cheap t-shirts, lemon squeezers and avocado-slicers (and their fridges and freezers).  And no one in polite society suggests sanctions or boycotts. (No one suggests “checking the science” either). Everyone wants their cheap stuff.

And so the charade continues, China pretends it will reduce emissions, and the West pretends it could happen:

“Another year of rapidly rising emissions in 2023 leaves China way off track against its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18 per cent between 2021 and 2025,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). “As a result, carbon dioxide emissions would now need to fall by 4 to 6 per cent by 2025 to hit the goal.”

And everyone pretends that it matters.

Global Coal Plant Tracker

Electric Vehicles Are So Unpopular That Entire Mines Are Shutting Down

From The Daily Caller

WILL KESSLER

CONTRIBUTOR

A slowdown in the growth of electric vehicle (EV) demand has led to entire mines being shut down as the supply of rare earth minerals essential for EV components exceeds demand, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Mines around the world are ceasing operations or halting construction projects in response to the falling demand, such as a $1.3 billion plant in North Carolina operated by Albemarle. which announced that it was deferring spending on the project amid the market turmoil, according to the WSJ  The total market share of EVs rose from 3.1% in January 2023 to 3.6% in December 2023, while the share of U.S. vehicle inventory grew from 2.8% to 5.7% in that same time frame as demand fails to keep up with supply. (RELATED: California EV Sales Decline For First Time In A Decade As State Continues Green Push)

Over the last few years, global mineral producers have ramped up mining operations in an attempt to capitalize on the emerging EV market, but consumers have declined to adopt EVs at the rate producers were expecting, leading to rare minerals flooding the market and driving down prices, according to the WSJ. The market for metals is often subject to boom-and-bust cycles due to unpredictable demand and the slow speed at which mines can be brought into operation.

The price of lithium is down around 90% since the beginning of last year, and the price of nickel has been cut in half in that same time frame, according to the WSJ. A mine on the French Pacific island of New Caledonia recently suspended operations, despite providing more than 6% of the world’s nickel supply.

The decline in mineral demand is particularly dire to the Australian mining industry and economy in general, with the country’s government recently designating nickel as a critical mineral to give corporations access to government grants in order to provide some stimulus to struggling companies, according to the WSJ. The collapse of mineral prices has led to a loss of more than one-fifth of Australia’s mine supply.

China controls around 87% of the world’s rare earth mineral refining capacity, leading the U.S. to attempt to subsidize projects outside of China to secure access to the resources. The Biden administration has included provisions in EV tax credits that require a certain percentage of minerals not to be from a foreign entity of concern like China to be eligible.

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Europe faces industrial wipe-out

Instead of sparking a manufacturing renaissance in Europe, the pursuit of net zero is leading instead to imminent deindustrialisation.

In the United States, there are massive subsidies. In China, there is an industrial strategy pursued with ruthless effectiveness. And yet in Europe, there are just “deadlines and fines”. 

Luca de Meo, the boss of the giant French car manufacturer Renault, didn’t mince his words when he called this week for a coherent response from Britain, France, and the rest of the major European industrial nations, to the threat posed by imports of cheap foreign electric vehicles. 

Sure, it would be easy to dismiss that as just another industrial leader calling for soft loans and tariffs to rescue an uncompetitive industry. And yet de Meo is on to something. Net zero has turned into a Chinese weapon aimed right at the heart of Western competitiveness. The Telegraph has the story.

If we don’t wake up and recognise soon that we have to figure out a better way of combatting climate change, our industries are about to get wiped out. 

The transition from petrol to battery-powered vehicles is not working quite as planned. It was meant to spark a wave of investment, create a swathe of “well-paid green jobs” and dramatically cut carbon emissions at the same time. 

Renault, in turn, looked set to play a leading role. With models such as the ZOE, the company was an early pioneer in the space of relatively affordable EVs. It looked as if it was all set to become a global leader. 

Right now, that seems far from the case. Chinese firms are about to dump millions of cheap EVs on the European market.

“The UK may no longer be part of the EU, but on this issue I think we face the same challenges together,” argued De Meo in an article for Autocar. 

“With the internal combustion engine, our leadership was undisputed…and it was a barrier to entry for newcomers. Today, Europeans find themselves in a position of relative fragility”. His argument is that the EU and the UK have to work together to fight back, and protect what remains one of the continent’s most significant industries. 

He is certainly right about that. In the US, President Biden has launched a tax credit scheme that will pour nearly $400bn into subsidies, and while not all the money will be well spent it will give America a chance to build a substantial industry.

Meanwhile, China has funnelled massive amounts of money into building EVs, it has taken control of critical minerals needed to make them cheaply, and it is now about to flood the West with models that could well outcompete European manufacturers on both quality and price. 

Instead of sparking a manufacturing renaissance in Europe, the pursuit of net zero is leading instead to imminent deindustrialisation. It might be starting with the mighty automotive industry, in which the Continent once led the world, but it is being repeated again and again elsewhere. 

Indeed only this week a group of major European industries launched the “Antwerp declaration”, calling on the EU to relax regulations, lower energy costs and increase investment, while it still has some industry left. 

Signed by 73 major companies, from 17 sectors including chemicals, pharmaceuticals and engineering, it argued that “sites are being closed, production halted, people let go…Europe needs a business case urgently.”

Here’s the problem, however. All the major European governments, including the UK of course, are still fanatically committed to net zero, and that stops them from responding properly. 

Take cars for example. Normally, the EU or Britain would likely launch an “anti-dumping” action against cheap imports of Chinese EVs, and impose tariffs to allow our manufacturers to compete. 

Read the full story here.

West braces for China’s electric car shock

An EV invasion threatens to run European carmakers off the road.

The port of Vlissingen in the south-west of the Netherlands has been at the heart of world commerce for centuries.

Roughly 17,000 cargo ships dock in its deep waters between the North Sea and the river Scheldt every year, laden with everything from vital commodities such as paper, timber, and steel; coal, liquefied gases, fertiliser and other key raw materials; to well as fruit and vegetables that will quickly find their way onto supermarket shelves.

On Wednesday, the harbour took delivery of one of its most significant consignments yet: 5,000 electric cars straight from a factory in Shenzhen, China, destined for forecourts across Europe and Britain.

The Telegraph has the story.

Made by China’s biggest car-maker BYD, the shipment has the potential to turn rising international tensions into an explosive all-out trade war between Beijing and the West.

Electric cars, along with lithium batteries and solar panels, are what President Xi Jinping has proclaimed are “pillars of the economy”: sectors that the Chinese government has chosen to be the drivers of a massive manufacturing export boom. Commerce minister Wang Wentao has described them as China’s “new three” industries.

The country’s leaders are desperate to offset a property slump triggered by the spectacular collapse of debt-laden developer Evergrande, which has crushed consumer confidence. Attempts by China’s securities watchdog to prop up the nation’s $8.6 trillion (£6.8 trillion) stock market, by banning institutional investors from selling shares at the open and close of trading, shows how concerned officials are about consumer confidence.

“Since China’s reopening after the pandemic, industrial production has been quite strong but it has not got the domestic demand for that,” says Duncan Wrigley of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Households are reluctant to spend as much because they’re concerned about the future. People worry that if they lose a job now they won’t be able to get a replacement. That is contributing to the continued weakness in the property sector.”

Xi hopes that a state-backed manufacturing drive led by advanced goods and materials will power a fresh era of growth. But the prospect of China attempting to save its economy by flooding the West with cheap cars has policymakers in Europe and America on red alert.

The fear in Brussels and Washington is that with domestic demand in the doldrums, China will seek to ease over-capacity by dumping its goods – selling them abroad at lower prices than at home – on international markets and trashing Western industry. With officials already threatening serious recriminations, and Beijing warning of counter-reprisals, trade tensions are once again dangerously high.

As BYD’s Explorer No.1 ship was making its way through the English Channel after a five-week voyage to the Zeeland archipelago where Vlissingen juts out, the boss of Renault waded into the row with a plea to Britain and Europe to work together to resist what the industry fears will be an onslaught of super-cheap Chinese electric vehicles.

“With the internal combustion engine, our leadership was undisputed. For a century, we benefited from our expertise with this technology, and it was a barrier to entry for newcomers. Today, Europeans find themselves in a position of relative fragility,” Luca de Meo, chief executive of the French carmaker said.

De Meo and his counterparts are right to be concerned. By the second half of last year, the Chinese had captured about 10pc of the European electric vehicle market, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.

An invasion of Chinese cars promises to be great for Western consumers but terrible for carmakers in Europe. A typical Tesla can cost £40,000, whereas BYD’s models go for as little as £8,000. Chinese carmakers are offering generous discounts of up to €12,000 to boost sales on the Continent, Schmidt’s researchers found.

Even Elon Musk, the industry’s original trailblazer and someone who once laughed at the suggestion that BYD could ever compete with Tesla, is running scared. Without trade barriers, Chinese players “will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world”, Musk said shortly after BYD toppled Tesla as the number one seller of electric models in mainland China at the end of 2023.

A report by Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance predicts that annual sales of electric vehicles will reach 56 million globally by 2040 – equivalent to 58pc of all cars sold around the world. It also believes China’s share of the electric car market will be 40pc by the end of this decade, a forecast supported by the International Energy Agency.

Read the full story here.