From STOP THESE THINGS

Sun’s up, wind’s blowing and wind and solar power is flowing. Wind drops, Sun sets and you’re on your own. The so-called wind and solar ‘industries’ couldn’t care less whether you’re left freezing in the dark. Your power supply is somebody else’s problem.

In this three-part essay, Edward A Reid Jr targets the unhealthy relationship between (witless) governments and (ruthless) crony capitalists as they have come to dominate the energy domain over the last 20 years.

Government Responsibility
The Right Insight
Edward A Reid Jr
6 February 2024

Government, at all levels, apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is to establish the goals, set the timeline, pick the winning technologies and incentivize their market adoption. This perception led to Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, wind and solar generation, electric vehicles and a variety of incentives, subsidies and mandates. Would that life were so simple.

First, the goal of Net Zero by 2050 would require a complete revision of the energy system over a period of 27 years, a very short period of time for such a major change. Fortunately, both the goal itself and the accelerated timeline are unnecessary, but unfortunately, they are being pursued anyway, driven by politics rather than science.

Second, the technologies picked as the winners (wind, solar and EVs) are not winning technologies for a variety of reasons: wind and solar are intermittent generators which have low capacity factors compared with coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. They therefore require either continued support from conventional generation or support from electricity storage which is not available for the storage and discharge durations required to assure a reliable grid. Government assumes that the required storage technology would evolve, though it would be needed in the very short term. Also, wind, solar and storage, including EV batteries, all depend on the availability of several rare earth minerals which are not currently produced in the US, are not globally available in the quantities which would be required and are currently controlled globally by unfriendly nations.

The transition to all-electric everything in the residential and commercial markets would be relatively straightforward from a technology standpoint, since all of the technology already exists. However, the conversions are expected to encounter significant installation issues which would add to the expense. The transition to all-electric everything in the industrial market would be far more difficult, since there are no commercial electric technology approaches available for many industrial processes. Government assumes that the required industrial technologies would evolve.

The transition to all-electric everything would require an approximate tripling of the capacity of the electric grid from generation capacity through transmission and distribution. Government has erected numerous barriers which would significantly hinder this massive, rapid expansion particularly in transmission. Transmission project approvals currently require 10+ years, longer if delayed by lawsuits. Government could streamline this process, but so far has not seen fit to do so.

Tripling of real generation capacity would require an approximate 9-12 times increase in wind and solar rating plate capacity because of their low capacity factors. Wind and solar capacity additions would also require long approval times, especially if challenged in court. This issue is compounded by the requirement for storage technology which is not currently commercialized.

Government has promoted the notion that wind and solar generated electricity is cheaper than electricity from conventional generation. However, to assure a reliable grid, wind and solar generation must be dispatchable, which means that they must be coupled with storage adequate to assure their availability to meet peak demand. The combined requirement for multiples of rating plate capacity plus storage to achieve dispatchability assures that wind and solar generated electricity would be more expensive than conventionally generated electricity, driving up electric rates.

Finally, government must address a satisfactory approach to providing emergency generation in the event of grid outages for hospitals, nursing homes and rehabilitation facilities, prisons and other facilities which cannot be without power. These generators are typically fueled with natural gas, propane or diesel fuel, none of which are compatible with a Net Zero energy economy.

Currently, government is forcing pursuit of a goal without a plan based on unsuitable or non-existent technologies. Government is responsible for this situation, but would be unlikely to accept responsibility for its adverse impacts.

Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other. -Ronald Reagan
The Right Insight

Renewables Responsibility
The Right Insight
Edward A Reid Jr
13 February 2024

The renewable energy industry apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is take maximum advantage of federal and state subsidies, incentives, preferences and mandates by installing as much generating capacity as the industry participants can finance and get connected to the grid. The industry also believes that the grid should accept all of its output whenever it is available. The opportunity the industry perceives is the result of Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, and the selection of wind and solar as the winning technologies. Would that life were so simple.

The renewable energy industry believes that it should be free to install its generation facilities at whatever locations and that the operators of the existing electric utility grid should be responsible for extending the grid to their facilities.

The renewable industry is aware that the output of its facilities varies minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month, season-to-season, and year-to-year. The industry believes that it is the responsibility of the grid operator to smooth renewable generation output, to fill in the gaps when the generators are not operating, and to manage the generation of the difference between the available renewable energy and the contemporaneous demand on the grid.

The renewable energy industry is aware that the electricity it generates displaces energy which would otherwise have been generated by the conventional generators which serve the grid. The industry also recognizes that this displacement reduces the cumulative output and the revenues of the conventional generators, including utility owned generation. The renewable energy industry believes that this is not their problem; and, realizes that it actually benefits their industry by increasing the prices the conventional generators must charge to remain profitable, and thus the prices paid for their renewable energy as well.

The renewable energy industry is aware that, as conventional generators leave the grid as renewable generation increases, conventional generators age out or are required to cease operation by government edict or because their operation has become uneconomic, the gaps in renewable generation would have to be filled by withdrawals from electricity storage systems. The industry also realizes that the transition from conventional generation backup to storage backup would create demand for additional renewable generating capacity. The industry accepts no responsibility for the need for electricity storage to provide a stable and reliable grid.

The renewable energy industry understands that the expansion of intermittent generation of the electric utility grid adversely affects grid stability and reliability and complicates the effective management of the grid. However, the industry accepts no responsibility for these issues and places that responsibility solely on the grid operators.

The renewable energy industry also holds the grid operators responsible for the fact the  industry cannot get new renewable generating capacity connected to the grid as rapidly as it would like. Difficulties with receiving regulatory approvals for transmission grid expansion is viewed as not being the renewable energy industry’s responsibility.

FERC, NERC and several ISOs and RTOs have recognized the potential reliability issues facing the grid and have become more vocal regarding the need for caution as the energy transition proceeds.
The Right Insight

Grid Responsibility
The Right Insight
Edward A Reid Jr
20 February 2024

Previous commentaries (Renewables Responsibility and Government Responsibility) dealt with the government and renewables industry perceptions of their responsibilities regarding the proposed energy transformation.

Government, at all levels, apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is to establish the goals, set the timeline, pick the winning technologies and incentivize their market adoption. This perception led to Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, wind and solar generation, electric vehicles and a variety of incentives, subsidies and mandates.

The renewable energy industry apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is take maximum advantage of federal and state subsidies, incentives, preferences and mandates by installing as much generating capacity as the industry participants can finance and get connected to the grid. The industry also believes that the grid should accept all of its output whenever it is available. The opportunity the industry perceives is the result of Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, and the selection of wind and solar as the winning technologies.

The overall responsibility of the utilities, which own and operate the grid and much of the generating capacity which feeds the grid, and the ISOs and RTOs through which they coordinate their generation and transmission operations, is to assure reliable and economical electricity service. Their operational and financial performance are overseen by state utility commissions and consumers’ counsels.

The utilities are required to connect non-utility generators to the grid. Conventional non-utility generators have historically been subject to economic dispatch. However, the proposed energy transition has changed this process by requiring that the output of connected renewable generators, which cannot be dispatched at will, be taken whenever it is available and supplemented by electricity dispatched from both utility and non-utility generators to meet the contemporaneous demand on the grid. In situations in which the renewable generator output exceeds demand, the grid operators would be expected to store the excess electricity for later use.

As the fraction of subsidized renewable generation connected to the grid increases, the output of the conventional generation to the grid decreases, reducing the revenues to those generators and increasing the rates they must charge to remain profitable. However, the intermittency of the renewable generation requires that the conventional capacity remain operating, even at zero net output, to supply the grid demand when the renewable generation declines significantly or is unavailable. However, conventional generation is being retired far more rapidly than renewable generation is being added to the grid, reducing the capacity reserve margin available to meet peak demand and threatening grid stability and reliability.

The grid operators, which typically connected a relatively small number of relatively high-capacity dispatchable generators, are now required to connect a relatively large number of relatively low-capacity non-dispatchable generators, spread over a far larger geographic area. As the energy transition proceeds, the number of relatively low-capacity non-dispatchable generators would increase dramatically, rendering the continued operation of conventional generation uneconomical. Fossil fueled conventional generation would also be driven from the grid by government edict.

When the rating plate capacity of the connected renewable generation exceeds the capacity of the conventional generation, the grid operators would be required to add dispatchable electricity storage to the grid to satisfy grid demand when renewable generation is unavailable or inadequate. This storage capacity would be recharged using surplus renewable electricity when available, supplemented by conventional generation while available. However, as the conventional generation is retired, additional grid storage capacity would be required, and additional renewable generation capacity would be required to assure that grid storage capacity is charged and available as required.

The grid scale storage required by the energy transition is currently either extremely expensive (short duration) or unavailable (medium to long duration). This would make the grid operators’ responsibility to ensure reliable and economical electricity service very difficult to fulfill.

Finally, there has not been a successful demonstration of a stable and reliable renewable plus storage grid, so there remain questions about whether the grid operators’ responsibilities could be fulfilled.
The Right Insight