By Paul Homewood
Meanwhile potty Prince Charles wants us to go on a warlike footing!!
It was the US that paid for the Marshall Plan. Maybe Charlie would like to tell us who will pay for this one?
SEPTEMBER 29, 2020
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
A merdional (wavy) jet stream flow is diverting brutal polar air to the mid-latitudes in BOTH hemispheres. Every continent on the planet is currently receiving out-of-season snow and anomalous cold, with a few of the worst hit nations being New Zealand, Australia, the United States, and France.
A spring weather bomb has battered New Zealand, closing roads, dumping snow on beaches and causing dozens of flight cancellations, reports the Guardian, of all publications.
The country’s Met service described the a low-pressure system is moving up the country from Antarctica. The service called the system “very unusual in how widespread the severe weather is” and was a significant weather event.
The National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research said parts of the South Island shivered through record-breaking lows of -20C (-4F) on Monday and Tuesday.
Flights were cancelled up and down the South Island due to heavy snow.
Disruptive flurries were even reported a sea-level: very unusual for spring:
And there’s much more to come as the week progresses.
Parts of Australia have, once again, been battered by late-season snow and debilitating cold.
It may be the middle of spring, but the Victorian Alps are white after an Antarctic front swept through the state during the weekend. Almost 1.5 feet of snow accumulated on Mount Buller, a total so large that the resort’s management team decided to re-open the lifts and slopes, an unprecedented measure.
“We’ve decided to do it as a special thank you just for the members who are in regional Victoria or up here on Buller so they can get one last ski in,” said Mt Buller resort’s Rhylla Morgan.
“We’ve decided to do it as a special thank you just for the members who are in regional Victoria or up here on Buller so they can get one last ski in,” said Mt Buller resort’s Rhylla Morgan.
Heavy spring snow buried many other Aussie Alpine regions, too:
September snow is also busy shutting roads and passes across the Mountain States of the U.S..
Wyoming Department of Transportation Public Relations Specialist Cody Beers said on Monday that a section of Beartooth Highway has been closed.
He noted there are 3-4 foot snow drifts at the summit of the pass:
A large mass of bone-chilling Arctic cold accompanied the snow, engulfing much of the United States:
And looking forward, another continent-spanning blast of polar cold (what is that, the third or fourth of the season already) will descend as the calendar flips to October:
Central and Eastern regions look set for temperature departures some 10C – 16C below the seasonal averages.
And finally, for now, reports from the French Alps reveal that more than 6,000 sheep have been trapped to the south-east after record-breaking September snowfall buried many of the higher elevations of Europe.
The 6,000 sheep and some 100 cattle got stuck in the Col du Gandon mountain pass along with their shepherds over the weekend after an early flurry of snow coupled with icy winds created snowdrifts of up to two metres high.
On Sunday, the local town hall in Saint-Colomban-des Villards set up a crisis center and launched an operation to feed the animals. Locals used snowplows to clear the paths, and, on Sunday evening, successfully managed to get six tonnes of fodder to the flock.
“The most urgent thing was to get them all fed and we managed,” said Pierre-Yves Bonnard, mayor of Saint-Colomban-des-Villards. “Evacuating all the animals will take us almost a week. We can manage a herd a day. So we have to feed them in the meantime.”
The last herds would usually come down from the high mountain pastures at the end of October, and the sudden early-season snowfall took sheepfarmers and shepherds by surprise.
Around 800 sheep have been evacuated so far, and another 2,000 are due to be brought down to lower ground through Monday and Tuesday. However, with further snowfalls expected this week, the evacuation could take longer.
Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream and so climate overall.
Prepare for the COLD — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach: Twitter are purging followers while Facebook are labeling posts as “false” and have slapped-on crippling “page restrictions”:
Be sure to subscribe to receive new post notifications by email (the box is located in the sidebar >>> or scroll down if on mobile).
The site receives ZERO funding, and never has. So any way you can, help us spread the message so others can survive and thrive in the coming times.
Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift
THIS POST IS A CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON THE CLIMATE SCIENCE ASSUMPTION IN POLAR BEAR RESEARCH THAT OBSERVED CHANGES IN POLAR BEAR COUNTS AND PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OVER DECADAL TIME SCALES CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF REDUCED SEA ICE EXTENT AND THEREFORE IN TERMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WITH THE IMPLICATION THAT WE CAN SAVE POLAR BEARS BY TAKING CLIMATE ACTION.
PART-1: THE VIEW FROM CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE MEDIA
- Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence. Péter K. Molnár ETAL, Nature Climate Change volume 10, (2020): Abstract: Polar bears require sea ice for capturing seals and are expected to decline range-wide as global warming and sea-ice loss continue. Estimating when different subpopulations will likely begin to decline has not been possible to date because data linking ice availability to demographic performance are unavailable for most subpopulations and unobtainable a priori for the projected but yet-to-be-observed low ice extremes. Here, we establish the likely nature, timing and order of future demographic impacts by estimating the threshold numbers of days that polar bears can fast before cub recruitment and/or adult survival are impacted and decline rapidly. Intersecting these fasting impact thresholds with projected numbers of ice-free days, estimated from a large ensemble of an Earth system models, reveals when demographic impacts will likely occur in different subpopulations across the Arctic. Our model captures demographic trends observed during 1979–2016, showing that recruitment and survival impact thresholds may already have been exceeded in some subpopulations. It also suggests that, with high greenhouse gas emissions, steeply declining reproduction and survival will jeopardize the persistence of all but a few high-Arctic subpopulations by 2100. Moderate emissions mitigation prolongs persistence but is unlikely to prevent some subpopulation extirpations within this century.
- NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/climate/polar-bear-extinction.html July 20, 2020: CITING THE MOLNAR PAPER: Polar bears could become nearly extinct by the end of the century as a result of shrinking sea ice in the Arctic if global warming continues unabated. Nearly all of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears, from the Beaufort Sea off Alaska to the Siberian Arctic, would face being wiped out because the loss of sea ice would force the animals onto land and away from their food supplies for longer periods. Prolonged fasting, and reduced nursing of cubs by mothers, would lead to rapid declines in reproduction and survival.
- There are about 25,000 polar bears in the Arctic. Their main habitat is sea ice, where they hunt seals by waiting for them to surface at holes in the ice. In some areas the bears remain on the ice year round, but in others the melting in spring and summer forces them to come ashore. They need the sea ice to capture their food. There’s not enough food on land to sustain a polar bear population. But bears can fast for months, (8 months). Arctic sea ice grows in the winter and melts and retreats in spring and summer. As the region has warmed rapidly in recent decades, sea ice extent in summer has declined by about 13 percent per decade compared to the 1981-2010 average. Some parts of the Arctic that previously had ice year-round now have ice-free periods in summer. Other parts are now free of ice for a longer portion of the year than in the past. The Molnar paper studied 13 of the subpopulations equal to 80 percent of the total bear population. They calculated the bears’ energy requirements in order to determine how long they could survive or, in the case of females, survive and nurse their cubs while fasting. Combining that with climate-model projections of ice-free days to 2100 they found that, for almost all of the subpopulations, the time that the animals would be forced to fast would eventually exceed the time that they are capable of fasting. The animals would starve. Longer fasting time also means a shorter feeding period. Not only do the bears have to fast for longer and need more energy to get through this, they also have a harder time to accumulate this energy. While fasting, bears move as little as possible to conserve energy. But sea-ice loss and population declines require having to expend more energy searching for a mate and that also affects survival. Even under more modest warming projections, in which greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2040 and then begin to decline, many of the subgroups would still be wiped out. Over the years, polar bears have become a symbol both for those who argue that urgent action on global warming is needed and for those who claim that climate change is not happening or, at best, that the issue is overblown. Groups including the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization that challenges aspects of climate change, have called concerns about the bears unwarranted, arguing that some research shows that the animals have survived repeated warm periods. But scientists say during earlier warm periods the bears probably had significant alternative food sources, notably whales, that they do not have today. Poignant images of bears on isolated ice floes or roaming land in search of food have been used by conservation groups and others to showcase the need for action to reduce warming. Occasionally, though, these images have been shown to be not what they seem. After a video of an emaciated bear picking through garbage cans in the Canadian Arctic was posted online by National Geographic in 2017, the magazine acknowledged that the bear’s condition might not be related to climate change. Scientists had pointed out that there was no way of knowing what was wrong with the bear; it might have been sick or very old. The new research did not include projections in which emissions were reduced drastically, said Cecilia M. Bitz, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington and an author of the study. The research needs to be able to determine the periods when sea ice would be gone from a particular region. Andrew Derocher, a polar bear researcher at the University of Alberta said the findings “are very consistent with what we’re seeing” from, for instance, monitoring the animals in the wild. “The study shows clearly that polar bears are going to do better with less warming,” he added. “But no matter which scenario you look at, there are serious concerns about conservation of the species. Of the 19 subpopulations, little is known about some of them, particularly those in the Russian Arctic. Of subpopulations that have been studied, some generally sub-populations in areas with less ice loss have shown little population decline so far. But others, notably in the southern Beaufort Sea off northeastern Alaska, and in the western Hudson Bay in Canada, have been severely affected by loss of sea ice. One analysis found that the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation declined by 40 percent, to about 900 bears, in the first decade of this century (2000-2010) . Derocher said one drawback with studies like these is that, while they can show the long-term trends, it becomes very difficult to model what is happening from year to year. Polar bear populations can be very susceptible to drastic year-to-year changes in conditions, he said. “One of the big conservation challenges is that one or two bad years can take down a sub-population that is healthy and push it to really low levels.
BIASED RESEARCH QUESTION AND METHODOLOGY WITH AN EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON SEA ICE EXTENT AS THE ONLY DETERMINANT OF POLAR BEAR SUB-POPULATION DYNAMICS: As seen in the variables listed below that are known to affect polar bear subpopulation dynamics, it is a gross over-simplification to interpret these dynamics purely in terms of summer minimum sea ice extent. Human predation of polar bears in terms of hunting for food and hide has been a feature of polar bear subpopulation dynamics (PBSPD) for thousands of years. Its intensity increased sharply 500 years ago when commercial bear hide trade boomed and again 70 years ago when snowmobiles, speed boats, and aircraft were employed in the post war explosion of the bear hide business. It is widely believed that polar bear hunting has now been banned but this is not true outside of Norway and some regions of Siberia where some restrictions have been placed on polar bear hunting. Native Arctic humans that have always hunted polar bears for food, clothing, and other purposes have no restrictions. However, polar bear hunting by outsiders is restricted by an international agreement that forbids the use of snowmobiles, speedboats, and aircraft in these hunts. This agreement does not prohibit hunting of polar bears for hide. Non-human predation: in addition to human predation, we find that young polar bears cubs are hunted by wolves and by adult polar bears for food. Starving nursing mothers may also feast on her cubs. In general Intra-species predation is prevalent among polar bears where strong young males may feast on cubs or weaker females. Also, fighting among males for mating partners or hunting rights may also result in death and cannibalism. Polar bears may look cute and cuddly but they are not as nice as they look.
NON-CLIMATE FACTORS IN POLAR BEAR SUB-POPULATION DYNAMICS
LONGEVITY: Generally 20 to 30 years but as low as 15 and as high as 32. You can tell how old it is by looking at a thin slice of tooth and counting the layers. PREDATION: Adult polar bears have no predators except other polar bears but cubs less than one year old sometimes are prey to wolves and other carnivores and newborns may be eaten by the polar bears themselves especially if the mother is starved. INTRA-SPECIES PREDATION: This does not happen a lot but males fight over females and will kill the competition to get the lady he wants. In extreme hunger conditions, male polar bears may attack, kill, and eat female polar bears. This is not a normal behavior pattern but it does happen. HUMAN PREDATION: Humans have hunted, killed, and eaten Polar bears for thousands of years. Arctic people have traditionally hunted polar bears for food, clothing, bedding, and religious purposes. More recently commercial hunting for polar bear hides got started more than 500 years ago. There was a sharp rise in the kill rate in the 1950s when modern equipment such as snowmobiles, speedboats, and aircraft were employed in the polar bear hide trade. The hunt expanded to what was eventually viewed as a threat to the survival of the species and an International Agreement was signed in 1973 to ban the use of aircraft and speed boats in polar bear hunts although hunting continued to the extent that they were still the leading cause of polar bear mortality. It is popularly believed that polar bear hunting is now banned. STATE OF HUMAN PREDATION: Today, polar bears are hunted by native arctic populations for food, clothing, handicrafts, and sale of skins. Polar bears are also killed in defense of people or property. However, hunting is strictly regulated in Canada, Greenland, Norway, and Russia. In Norway and Russia hunting polar bears is banned. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: Increasing temperatures are associated with a decrease in sea ice both in terms of how much sea ice there is and how many months a year they are there. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform to prey mainly on ringed and bearded seals. Therefore, a decline in sea ice extent reduces the polar bear’s ability to hunt for seals and can cause bears to starve or at least to be malnourished. YOUNG POLAR BEARS: Subadults are inexperienced hunters, and often are chased from kills by larger adults. OLD & WEAK BEARS are also susceptible to starvation for the same reason. They can’t compete with younger and stronger bears. In hunt constrained situations, as in limited sea ice, kids and seniors starve first. Climate change scientists have found (bibliography in related post) that polar bear subpopulations have shown increasing evidence of food deprivation including an increase in the number of underweight or starving bears, smaller bears, fewer cubs, and cubs that don’t survive into adulthood partially because in food constrained situations cubs are more likely to be eaten by adult polar bears. This takes place in areas that are experiencing shorter hunting seasons with limited access to sea ice. These conditions limit the bears’ ability to hunt for seals.
The implication for climate impact studies is that a comparison of polar bear subpopulation counts across time at brief decadal time scales, in and of itself, may not have a climate change sea ice interpretation because of the number of other variables involved in these dynamics.
Yet another factor is the assumption that observed changes in September minimum sea ice extent are driven by global warming such that they can be moderated by taking climate action by reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels. This critical causal relationship is simply assumed in climate science. However, as shown in related posts: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/25/list-of-arctic-sea-ice-posts/ , detrended correlation analysis does not show that September minimum Arctic sea ice extent is responsive to air temperature above the Arctic. This means that we have no evidence to support he assumption that fossil fuel emissions cause lower September minimum sea ice extent and that this trend can be attenuated by taking climate action. Thus, in short, the two critical causations in polar bear research by climate scientists, (1) that fossil fuel emissions lower September minimum sea ice extent and (2) that polar bear sub-population dynamics are the creation of changes in September minimum sea ice extent, are simply assumed with no empirical evidence provided to support them.
Whether the polar bears are in trouble is not the issue. The only issue is whether their trouble if any is caused by fossil fuel emissions and whether it can be moderated by taking climate action. This important aspect of the polar bear issue in climate science is missing from polar bear research carried out by climate science apparently to provide the needed motivation for climate action.
Antarctic research has discovered abandoned colonies of Adélie penguins which date from three warm periods starting at around 5000 B.P. and terminating by ca. 800 B.P., coinciding with the end of the Medieval Warm Period.
Researcher Steven Emslie also discovered what appears to be fresh remains of Adelie penguins, mostly of chicks. However, whether these “fresh” remains are a sign that the abandoned penguin site has become reoccupied again because of warmer conditions in recent years remains uncertain.
Researcher Steven Emslie encountered a puzzle at Cape Irizar, a rocky cape located just south of the Drygalski Ice Tongue on the Scott Coast, Ross Sea. He found both ancient and what appeared to be fresh remains of Adelie penguins, mostly of chicks, which frequently die and accumulate at these colonies. However, the “fresh” remains were puzzling, he says, because there are no records of an active penguin colony at this site since the first explorers (Robert Falcon Scott) in 1901-1903 came to the Ross Sea.
Emslie found abundant penguin chick bones scattered on the surface, along with guano stains, implying recent use of the site, but that wasn’t possible, says Emslie. Some of the bones were complete chick carcasses with feathers, now falling apart from decay as at a modern colony, as well as intact mummies. Emslie and his colleagues collected some of these surface remains for further analysis and radiocarbon dating to try and figure out what was going on there.
The team found old pebble mounds scattered about the cape. These mounds are former nesting sites of Adélie penguins because they use pebbles to build their nests. When they abandon a site, the pebbles become scattered and stand out on the landscape, since they are all about the same size.
“We excavated into three of these mounds, using methods similar to archaeologists, to recover preserved tissues of penguin bone, feather, and eggshell, as well as hard parts of prey from the guano (fish bones, otoliths). The soil was very dry and dusty, just as I’ve found at other very old sites I’ve worked on in the Ross Sea, and also had abundant penguin remains in them. Overall, our sampling recovered a mixture of old and what appeared to be recent penguin remains implying multiple periods of occupation and abandonment of this cape over thousands of years. In all the years I have been doing this research in Antarctica, I’ve never seen a site quite like this.”
The analyses reported in Emslie’s recent paper published in Geology indicate at least three occupation periods of the cape by breeding penguins, with the last one ending at about 800 years ago. When that occupation ended, either due to increasing snow cover over the cape or other factors (the Little Ice Age was beginning about then too), the “fresh” remains on the surface were covered in snow and ice and preserved intact until recent exposure from snowmelt.
Global warming has increased the annual temperature in the Ross Sea by 1.5-2.0 °C since the 1980s, and satellite imagery over the past decade shows the cape gradually emerging from under the snow. Thus, says Emslie, “This recent snowmelt revealing long-preserved remains that were frozen and buried until now is the best explanation for the jumble of penguin remains of different ages that we found there.”
The post Snowmelt Reveals Remains Of Medieval Warm Period Penguins appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
September 29, 2020 at 02:49AM