By Joe Bastardi
Every single event that is normal for a season is being weaponized in the phony climate war (heat waves are normal for summer. Hurricanes are normal for hurricane season. Droughts and Floods are normal events, etc.) THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORMAL AND AVERAGE. The average is a product of all events, extreme one way or the other and anything in between. IT IS NORMAL TO HAVE NATURE PUSH THE LIMITS OF ITS VARIABILITY and then return to a centering position, only to start the process over again. It is the eternal process of chaos, then control, that is a fact of life be it with the weather or in your own life.
For instance for much for much of Texas, this is the hottest summer on record, But that has been taken and pushed on people as if the rest of the country boiled. Yet there are the facts:
Most of the summer for the country is at or below average. Look closely. The max deviation and min deviation are almost equal.
They are both extreme, but that is what can happen to produce the average, which was above average due to the amount of warmth in the southern US. But while they suffered, close to 75% of the country’s population had temperatures near or below average.
The heat in the south pushed the limit a bit further on a regional level. But nature is capable of testing limits and creating new ones.
Look at this:
These are two of the warmest Mays on record.
But look what happened the following winters:
There are places that had the greatest reversal of temperature from May to the winter on record. This has not been equaled since. My dad used to say I had no idea of how bad the weather can get and then would tell me about growing up in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. It is obvious today that this is the case, with many gullible people buying into this.
The fundamental denial of a higher power is evident whenever someone weaponizes an event. How so? Well, you have to throw out (Ecclesiastes 3:1-8, Ecclesiastes 1:9, and a host of other verses to even believe that man can control the majesty of the atmosphere. So you have to deny that higher power, which, of course, can make you the higher power. I suspect a lot of this has a fundamental root, the belief that a group of men are now Gods that should be in control of the rest of mankind. I wrote a piece called ” The Glory of God vs the Folly of Man in the Climate Debate”, and it was on Facebook but not here, So I will go no further here with this thought but will leave it for you to think about this aspect.
I will deal with the President’s and others’ weaponization of Idalia.
First of all, for those who follow me, how many of these rapid intensification storms in close has weatherbell.com picked out for all to see? All the calls have been as many as three days off, several and a week, and in the case of Ian, nine days, and it was on here. Why? Because there are two ways you see this. In the case of the “in close” ones, a certain phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is observed. The storm intensifies, coming to the coast almost perpendicular as it tightens the convergence in the path of a storm. A storm parallelling the coast will weaken. But the movement with these cases is more north than west, as it is influenced by a trough of low pressure. The configuration of the Upper air pattern means that, as it heads toward the trough, it encounters a region of the jet that PULLS AIR OUT OF THE STORM AT THE TOP, which means low-level inflow increases. This is known as ventilation. This was taught at Penn State in the 1970s. I showed the public on Twitter what we were showing on Weatherbell.com, specifically to set the trap for them since I know Joe Biden has no idea about this, and neither do his advisers. If they did, why do they say what they say unless it’s a case of deception? So we showed why each of these “in close” majors that have hit the coast were going to deepen rapidly. Example: On August 21, 2017, when everyone was staring at the eclipse, my company was telling our Texas clients Harvey would be a major while coming to the coast. I CAN’T HELP IT THAT INITIAL INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM OTHERS CLAIM IT WILL BE LESS, and then when the textbook case develops, the storms do what they are supposed to do.
The other way is a storm breaking through a trough and then turning back to the west. Dorian, for instance. Andrew, and a host of others. But the point is my tropical professor in 1976, who was an FSU Ph.D., taught this stuff 50 years ago.
I rather doubt our President knows this.
I also doubt he looked at the max WINDS, which only reached cat 1 strength.
The storm rapidly intensified until the last few hours, then it rapidly weakened. This process means the strong winds do not get down to the surface. This is why our power and impact scale has a pressure tendency factor. I have been in arguments for years over this; if a storm is weakening there is some kind of collapse of the structure that makes the low-level winds not respond. When it intensifies, the strong winds get right down to the surface. There were no reports of sustained winds of even cat 2. It’s likely there, were in small streaks, but even at Keaton Beach, where landfall was made, the peak was 77 mph. Here are the max winds out of the Tallahassee NWS office.
THERE IS NOTHING OVER CAT 1 HERE
A cat 1 or 2 hurricane causes a lot of damage. But entire neighborhoods were not bulldozed as a storm with 125 gusts to 145 would have done.
Generously, this was a cat 2.
So, was the rapid weakening climate change. While it is called eyewall replacement, there is a reason why no MAJOR HURRICANES have hit in there. Saying this was a major with the data is like saying I won Mr. Olympia because I am a bodybuilder. Neither is supported by the facts. Doppler winds, recon, etc., are all great if the perfect processes are occurring, But when there is a collapse, that is not the case.
This also makes my point about seeding strong storms as they are coming to the coast to induce eyewall fluctuations. This collapse was as dramatic as Lili ( maybe more so) in 2002, which went from a 4 to, generously, a 2, as it came to the coast. It also shows why the power and impact scale should replace Saffir Simpson.
Do you think Joe Biden knows or even cares about any of this?
So, let me ask the president this question. Which is more frequent, seven major hits on FLA in six years or two in six years? If you want to make Idalia a major, it’s three in six years.
So what was the reason for this?
I am still including Idalia as a major, though I believe it will not happen. But, even allowing for that, how is this worse than the 1940s?
What’s more, Weaponizing Weather for something that has been taught for 50 years, is plumbing the depths of dumb and deception. For with each explanation, there are obvious counters that show they are intellectually bankrupt.
How about this little ditty? Explain this: two long-tracked major hurricanes hit the US within an 18-hour on Sept 14, 1933. I still have trouble believing that could happen.
The need to completely overhaul the way we rate hurricanes is front and center not only because the size of the storm matters, but also BECAUSE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA. When people are saying it is getting worse, it is nonsense. THE AMOUNT OF KINETIC ENERGY WITH A LONG-TRACKED LARGE STORM, BLOWS AWAY WHAT THIS IN CLOSE STORMS DO. The Current scale is based on what is basically a spot wind. What happens when a storm is huge? I showed this example many times with storms of the past that are in the same category but are much larger and, if occurring today, would cause more widespread damage.
So we had the collapse at the end here. Though perpendicular at the hit, I suspect the track into the coast did parallel the part of Florida to its west in the big bend. But for whatever reason, IT COLLAPSED. The intensification was textbook. But once in close, if you want to plumb the depths of dumb blaming climate change for the intensification, then let us blame it for the weakening.
Or how about Irma reaching the Florida mainland as a 2 after being a 4 . Or Irene, Matthew, Dorian, and Florence all weakening when coming to the coast, hitting well under what they reached before? Is that climate change?
Actually, it is. But it’s not man-made. It’s a product of what I have been trying to show the public for years. A distortion is taking place, which means this whole thing is a wash.
I’ll close with a line from Bill O’Reilly’s column on Sunday.
“If a person succumbs to false beliefs and rejects accepting verifiable truth, they live in a delusional state.”
And there is no better example than the weaponization of weather.
Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting.
He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com