From blackout-news.de

During the East German Economic Forum in Bad Saarow, the German Minister of Economic Affairs, Robert Habeck, made it clear that Germany could possibly be forced to take drastic measures if an extension of gas transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine is not possible. In particular, Habeck stated that Germany would have to reduce or even shut down its industrial capacities if energy becomes scarce. In doing so, he wants to help other countries such as Austria or Hungary that are dependent on Russian gas supplies (Welt: 12.06.23).

Uncertain future of energy supply in Europe: Gas transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire

This statement makes it clear that the future of energy supply in Europe is still uncertain, as gas transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire next year. Currently, significant volumes of natural gas from Russia are still coming to Europe through pipelines that pass through Ukrainian territory. If there is no renewal of transit arrangements, there is a possibility that gas transit will be restricted or stopped altogether. This would have a massive impact on the energy supply in.

Expiring gas transit contracts threaten energy supply. Habeck wants to reduce industrial capacities when energy becomes scarce

In view of this uncertainty, Habeck emphasized Germany’s readiness to help its neighboring countries. He declared that Germany would curtail its industry if necessary. This would be necessary to ensure that the supply of other countries such as Austria or Hungary continues to be guaranteed. However, this measure would mean that Germany would have to reduce or even shut down industrial capacities. However, Habeck also stressed that the final decision would depend on how the situation develops.

Transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire in 2024

The statements of the Minister of Economy illustrate the complexity and potential impact associated with the expiry of gas transit contracts.

“We should not be distracted by the current good situation and should not disregard the imminent danger,” the minister warned. “It is important to point out that transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire in 2024.”

“In addition, we must not forget the ongoing war. There is no definite idea of what will happen in the future,” the minister explained. “If Russian gas no longer flows through Ukraine to Eastern Europe to the same extent as before, we must adhere to the principles agreed upon in Europe: Before the people there freeze, we would have to reduce or even shut down our industry if necessary.”

Expiring gas transit contracts threaten energy supply

These clear words illustrate the serious threat and the possible consequences that the expiry of the gas transit contracts could entail. It is clear that there is an urgent need for action to ensure the energy supply in the region and to mitigate the impact on the population.

In order to maintain the energy supply in East Germany and Eastern Europe, additional capacities are essential. According to Habeck, this also includes the planned LNG terminal off Rügen, which is controversial due to resistance from residents and environmental groups. Although it is as a result of the Russian invasion in February, Ukraine still receives transit fees for the passage of Russian gas to countries such as Austria, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary.

Even if some deliveries continue beyond 2024, it will most likely be under changed conditions. A report by the Center on Global Energy Policy emphasizes that direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to extend the transit contract are extremely unlikely in the current situation. The authors of the report, Anne-Sophie Corbeau and Tatiana Mitrova, note that there is a lack of political support for such negotiations.